New York Rangers Statistical Analysis: The Good, Bad, and Ugly

A deeper look at the performance of the Rangers this season

All-Star break is upon us, so here is a look at the good, the bad and the downright ugly from the first half of the New York Rangers’ season.

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The Good

October seems so long ago, but many fans may forget just how hot the Rangers came flying out of the gates. Heading into December the team was sitting with a record of 17-6-1, which included a nine game winning streak and a couple big wins over the St. Louis Blues and division rivals the Washington Capitals. Although their play in the last few months has not resembled anything close to a Cup contender, the Rangers have benefited from their hot start keeping them afloat in the playoff race and second in their division

Another positive is that the Rangers have put together one of the best home records in the league at Madison Square Garden – although of course that means there is a flip side, but we will get to that later. Staying with the positives, the Rangers have managed to win 18 of 25 games at home which can mean a lot for a team when they create an intimidation factor for anybody who is looking to steal two points in their barn.

Some other stats worth noting are that the Rangers rank second in the league in even strength goals with 118, they rank fourth in first period goals scored and third in third period goals scored. These are important statistics for a playoff bound team because getting the lead in the opening frame is almost a must in the post-season against stiff competition, also referees tend to forget where they put their whistles come playoff time, so I’d rather my team not have to rely on powerplay chances to create offense when needed.

The Bad

The bad that the Ranger’s have dealt with this season may be more of an abstract problem that stats can’t pin down,

“with the Rangers it leaves you wondering just how dominant they could be offensively if they can figure out their powerplay woes.”

but there certainly are a few eye popping stats that stick out for a team who ranks highly in a lot of categories.

For starters, they have struggled on special teams producing some of the lowest powerplay numbers in the league. They aren’t entirely in the basement but producing on just 17.9% of powerplay chances is a glaring issue. It makes you scratch your head when you revisit the fact that they are top five in the league in scoring and boast a group of defencemen who are known for their offensive prowess. I know I said earlier that come playoff time I’d prefer my team not to rely on a strong powerplay, but with the Rangers it leaves you wondering just how dominant they could be offensively if they can figure out their powerplay woes.

One of the strangest stats I came across in my research was that the Blue Shirts lead the league in a little known advanced stat called SPSV%. This stat combines a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage during five on five play. At first you would perceive this as a positive, but what the stat is trying to show is what teams have been the beneficiary of some puck luck, and those who have ran into hot goaltending or dinged a few to many posts throughout the season. Basically the Rangers are playing above their ceiling right now and cannot rely on their current style of play carrying them deep into the playoffs. They have relied far to much on solid play from Henrik Lundqvist and an uncanny ability to put the puck in the net whenever a quality chance presents itself. Obviously it is a good thing to have a bit of luck on your side, but at some point luck runs out and skill needs to take over. The Rangers just need to make sure they don’t get used to winning games in this fashion because all signs point to a dip in a team’s production who rank highly in this category.

The Ugly

There hasn’t been a whole lot of ugly this season, moreso mediocrity and puzzling stretches where the team seems bipolar, but I was able to find a few stats that have been holding the Rangers back from reaching their level of play seen in recent years.

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After their hot start in October and November, the team entered December flying high, but when the calendar flipped over for some reason so did the Rangers’ fortunes. A terrible 2-6-2 start to the month set the tables, and although they stopped a bit of the bleeding heading into the all-star break, it’s quite spectacular just how mediocre they have been during this last stretch. On paper going 7-5-1 doesn’t look so bad, but when you consider they spent every one of those games alternating between wins and losses, you start to understand why Alain Vigneault was so upset last week after his team’s loss to the Ottawa Senators.

The main issue for this team is the fact that they constantly let teams pepper their goalie with shots averaging 30.9 shots against when Lundqvist is in net. You feel for Lundqvist when you see he has faced the third most shots in the league, has the third most saves, but still ranks 34^th in GAA. Yes the Rangers have been able to score a lot this season, but they also have found ways to create chances for the other team ranking fourth in giveaways, putting their goalie in an awkward position where a lot of the pressure is on him to perform in desperate situations.

The final few ugly stats of note may epitomize the entire Rangers’ season of ups and downs. They currently rank fifth and third respectively in first and third period goals as noted before, but for some reason rank 22^nd in second period goals. To me that is a sign of a team who is excited to get the game started, get bored in the middle, then realize they’re still getting paid to play and turn it up in the final frame. Then of course there is the Rangers’ embarrassing 8-12-3 record away from MSG, which doesn’t look to ugly by itself, but when placed beside their home record of 18-5-2 it definitely raises some eyebrows.

Conclusion

Like I said, the final two stats really epitomizes the entire season so far for the Rangers. Are they the Cup contenders who started the season out on fire? Are they the terrible team that showed up for the first ten games in December? Or are they a fun mystery bag where each night you never know what team is going to show up?

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As of right now I’d have to say it’s the latter, but the good part is that they could very easily return to their Cup contending form we have seen year in and year out, I’m just glad I’m not the man charged with trying to figure out how to make that happen. Good luck figuring this all out Mr. Vigneault.