New York Rangers: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins would help but don’t expect him
By Josh Lipman
Trade rumors have followed Edmonton center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all summer. On the surface, the New York Rangers and Nugent-Hopkins make perfect sense together. Is it likely, though?
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is three years younger than former Rangers Derek Stepan and was the first overall pick in 2011. Despite his draft pedigree, Nugent-Hopkins isn’t a star. He managed only 43 points last season while Stepan posted 55.
Though Nugent-Hopkins isn’t quite as good as Stepan, they fill similar roles. Both play solid, two-way games and chip in a decent amount of offense. Stepan’s career high in points is 57, while Nugent-Hopkins’ is 56.
They even boast nearly identical contracts. Stepan makes $6.5 million annually for the next four seasons, while Nugent-Hopkins makes $6.0 million annually over the same period.
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Oil money
Nugent-Hopkins is available thanks to Edmonton’s unique salary cap situation. The Oilers have $66.7 million committed to 24 players this season, but $60.8 million committed to only 13 players for 18-19.
The stark shift occurs because Connor McDavid goes from his entry level contract in 17-18 to his eight-year, $100 million extension in 18-19. The Oilers have plenty of cap space right now, but they’re one year from big trouble and the whole league knows it.
Edmonton’s also a fringe contender, which complicates matters. They could easily stand pat and use Nugent-Hopkins to make a run at the Stanley Cup. Of course, waiting until next offseason when they absolutely have to deal Nugent-Hopkins would cripple his trade value.
Essentially, any trade offer has to carry three qualities to make it worth Edmonton’s while to deal Nugent-Hopkins sooner rather than later.
- The deal must do limited damage their chances this year.
- The return must offer better futures than what Edmonton could get by waiting until next offseason to trade him.
- The package has to clear at least $4 million off Edmonton’s books for 18-19.
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Making room in New York
The Rangers have slightly more than $3 million in cap space. All summer buyout windows have closed. Since Edmonton needs to free up cap space in any potential deal, the Rangers cannot trade for Nugent-Hopkins without involving a third team.
Additionally, moving a forward to make room for Nugent-Hopkins does nothing to improve New York’s thin depth up front. The Rangers have only 12 forwards under contract, which counts Jesper Fast. The Swedish checking forward likely won’t play until November thanks to offseason hip surgery.
The farm system doesn’t boast much NHL-ready forward depth either. Only Lias Andersson and Cristoval Nieves stand a real chance to make the team out of camp and neither is a guarantee.
With the forwards off limits, Jeff Gorton has only one option to free up enough space for Nugent-Hopkins. Gorton must find a taker for Marc Staal and his $5.7 million cap hit before even thinking about adding the Edmonton center. Also, Staal has a no-movement clause so he would have to approve any trade.
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Let’s make a deal
Even if they dump Staal, the Rangers still face an uphill battle to land Nugent-Hopkins. First off, they’re a contender with few win-now pieces to spare. As previously mentioned, trading forwards for Nugent-Hopkins makes little sense.
New York also just overhauled its defense core. Gorton won’t tear down his newly built top four of Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Shattenkirk, Brendan Smith, and Brady Skjei before they even have a chance to play.
Of its remaining blue line pieces, the Rangers could offer Anthony DeAngelo. He has NHL experience and two more years on his entry level contract. DeAngelo alone probably doesn’t get a deal done though.
The Rangers would need to give up a first round pick too, probably from the loaded 2018 draft. Anything less than DeAngelo plus a 2018 first gives Edmonton little reason to pick up the phone. It also basically washes out any gains from the Stepan deal.
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Gorton absolutely should explore every option to fix New York’s hole down the middle. Edmonton’s salary cap restraints make them a poor fit as a trading partner though.