Will the Sam Reinhart contract set the bar for Ryan Strome?

How will the contract signed by Sam Reinhart affect the New York Rangers negotiations with Ryan Strome?

The New York Rangers have two Restricted Free Agents (RFA’s) awaiting arbitration hearings in November.  The first is scheduled for November 5 with Ryan Strome and there is much speculation about what he is asking for, what the team is willing to pay and what his actual value is.  The Buffalo Sabres inked a deal with one of their forwards headed to arbitration and it could be a benchmark for a Strome deal.

The Reinhart deal

Sam Reinhart is about to turn 25 and he plays mostly right wing, but can also play center.  He was the second overall pick in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft and was coming off a two-year bridge deal he signed with the Sabres in 2018 with an Average Annual Value of $3.65 million.

He has played five full years in the NHL and last season he scored 22 goals and added 28 assists for 50 points in 69 games.  It was the third straight year with over 20 goals and he was headed for a career high in goals per game and his second best points per game average.

His new deal with Buffalo is for one year and it will pay him $5.2 million. He will remain an arbitration eligible free agent when the deal expires after next season.

Comparisons to Strome

Reinhart’s 2019-20 season was remarkably similar to Strome’s.   Here is the comparison

                                             Strome     Reinhart
Games                                    70              69
Goals                                       18              22
Goals per game                    .26             .32
Assists                                     41             28
Assists per game                 .59            .41
Points                                       59            50
Points per game                   .84           .72
PIM                                           48            20
Corsi For %                             48.8%     52%
TOI                                         19:35      20:38

For the most part, Strome played with Artemi Panarin while Reinhart was teamed with Jack Eichel.  As a center, Strome’s assist total was helped by Panarin’s goal scoring while Reinhart’s goal total was helped by Eichel as his center.

The big difference between the two is that Reinhart has been consistently better than Strome for more years.   Over his five year NHL career Reinhart has scored between 17 and 25 goals and posted point totals ranging from 42 to 65.

Strome has played seven years in the NHL and his totals have varied widely. His lowest goal total in a full season was eight along with 28 points, compared to his career highs of 19 and 59.  It’s hard to overlook his stint in Edmonton where he scored 13 goals and 34 points in his one full year and the next year had one goal and one assist in 18 games, forcing his trade to the Rangers.

The financials

Reinhart came off a higher salary at $3.65 million, compared to the $3.1 million that Strome was earning off his last contract.   By signing for $5.2 million, the Reinhart deal is a sign that if Strome expects to earn more than $5 million, he won’t get it.   Players get rewarded for consistency and while Reinhart has proven that he can perform at the same high level for years, it’s still up to Strome to show that he can do it.

We may never find out what he will be asking for and what the team is willing to pay when and if the teams go to arbitration.  If Strome is willing to settle for something less than the $4.8 million that the Rangers gave to Tony DeAngelo, he will be able to sign and avoid arbitration. If he asks for more and gets it in an arbitration, the Rangers may very will walk away from him.

There are a lot of factors at play here.  Strome likes being a Ranger and he enjoy playing with Panarin (who wouldn’t?).   He is one year away from Unrestricted Free Agency and if he signs  one year deal and actually improves on last season, he will be in an excellent position to get a big payday, but he will also be a candidate to be traded at the deadline.  Would he be willing to take $4.5 million a year for two years?  If so he will be 29 years old when looking for a new deal, a dangerous age for an NHL player.

So far, no player has actually gone to arbitration and the next one scheduled is Tyler Bertuzzi of the Detroit Red Wings.   Bertuzzi’s hearing is scheduled for Sunday, October 25 and it’s worth watching as his statistics (21 goals, 48 points) were similar to Strome’s.  The left winger has reported asked for $4.25 million compared to the team’s filing number of $3.15 million.  If he goes to arbitration and the arbitrator sides with the Red Wings, it could be a warning sign for the Strome camp.

Another one to watch is Sabres’ forward Victor Olofsson. As a rookie he scored 22 goals and totaled 46 points and the 25 year old Swede has an arbitration scheduled for November 4, the day before Strome.  Buffalo will try to lock him in before the hearing and it will be interesting to see what an older player with one good season will get.

The clock is ticking for Ryan Strome and Brendan Lemieux and if they are near to a deal, it should happen this week with their arbitration hearings scheduled for the end of next week.