New York Rangers: Chris Kreider and the upcoming decision

As the New York Rangers have officially bought out the contract of defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, the focus shifts to what the team intends to do with power forward Chris Kreider.

With the New York Rangers having multiple options to meet their cap ceiling requirements by opening night, the focus shifts to Chris Kreider and the decision now looms with the potential of his becoming an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2020.  The Rangers’ strategy over the past two trade deadline was trading away pending free agent players rather than to extend them long term, so the Kreider conversation is front and center.

Many sources around the NHL have reported that Kreider’s name has been part of trade conversations including the New York Post beat writer Larry Brooks. There are few reports on negotiations since the end of the season from the Rangers or from Kreider‘s agent Matt Keator.   This is not an indication of lack of interest on the Rangers or Kreider’s part as General Manager Jeff Gorton has had his hands full the past few months.

Going into this off-season it seemed unlikely the Rangers would sign a big name free agent and be able to extend Kreider.  Now that they have signed Artemi Panarin, and with the extension of Pavel Buchnevich, the Rangers have an extra top-six winger.  Mika Zibanejad is slated to center Panarin and rookie Kaapo Kakko on the top line,  which leaves Vitali Kravtsov, Kreider or Buchnevich to play with Filip Chytil on the second line.

Kreider is one of the few veterans on a Rangers roster that continues to get younger as they continue their rebuild.  He remains on the Rangers 23-man roster however that could change at a moment’s notice, at the trade deadline or perhaps several years from now.  The decision on Kreider is one of the most discussed speculative conversations within the NHL amid an off-season that has been dominated by the Rangers.

The Kreider years

In seven seasons on Broadway, the 6’3”, 220 pound Kreider has scored 133 goals with 138 assists for 271 points in 460 regular season games.  His production has been a steady 20 goals and 45 points in his six full season, averaging .59 points per game.  He has also scored 23 goals and 37 points in 77 playoff games.  The power forward’s value is not just in putting up points, he has a career plus/minus of +55 with a positive rating in every season except one since becoming a regular.

Kreider’s two-way game has been a valuable asset more apparent during the past two seasons with a much younger Ranger supporting cast.  Despite a very complete game the burning questions among Ranger fans and management is have we seen the best of Chris Kreider? When will he have the breakout season we’ve all been waiting for?  Those two questions are on Gorton’s mind as he looks over his team’s blueprint and ponders the forecast of future contract expenditures.

It’s no secret with the recent free agent signings of former Rangers Kevin Hayes in Philadelphia for seven years at $7M per season and Mats Zuccarello in Minnesota for five years at $6 million per season, that Kreider views his value in the seven year range in excess of $7 million per season.  Kreider turns 29 years old this April and his age and inconsistency are of concern.

The Rangers remain in no rush to make their decision on Kreider.   They could wait until the 2020 trade deadline to deal him but perhaps the team wants to avoid the in-season drama for a third consecutive year.  Trading him before the season gives a contending team a full season which should increase the return back to the Rangers in contrast to a deadline rental.  In terms of a return the Rangers should be able to land a first-round draft pick or key prospect and a conditional draft pick from a contender as the Rangers did with the Hayes and Rick Nash trades.

NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 21: New York Rangers Left Wing Chris Kreider (20) takes the puck out from behind the net during the third period of a regular season NHL game between the Calgary Flames and the New York Rangers on October 21, 2018, at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. (Photo by David Hahn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The case to extend Kreider

Many feel that Kreider could be the next Ranger to wear the captain’s “C” on his uniform since he brings so much to the lineup and locker room for a young team without a clear-cut leader in that role. Kreider has shown consistent ability in driving results of the line he is featured on.  He could also play a role to help shoulder the load as Chytil transitions as the team’s second-line center.

As much as Kreider has taken considerable heat over his disappearing acts during past seasons, much of that heat comes from the Rangers lack of of consistent scoring.   With Panarin and the potential of Kaako and Kravtsov, the new offensive makeup may take the pressure and spotlight off Kreider.   Should one of the young guns need to go down for some seasoning, or as a hedge against injury, having seven top-six forwards can be worthwhile luxury to carry.

The key that determines how long Kreider stays in New York is realistically up to him.  While it’s difficult to imagine Kreider offering the Rangers a term discount it appears that is the only palatable scenario for the Rangers.  All spending aside this is clearly a term of contract issue and this clearly rests with Kreider’s camp.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 17: Chris Kreider #20 of the New York Rangers celebrates his second period goal against the Chicago Blackhawks at Madison Square Garden on January 17, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

The case for trading Kreider

Kreider enters the final year of a four year contract that pays him $4.625 million per season.  The cap hit this year is attractive for a player of his caliber. He’s undoubtedly in line for a raise and with the Hayes and Zuccarello contracts there seems a market for the long term deal that Kreider is seeking.

There are comparable contracts around the league such as Brad Marchand and Cam Atkinson that have proven to be very cost effective for their respective teams.  At the same time there are the contracts of Bobby Ryan, Ryan Callahan, James Neal and Milan Lucic that were based upon what the players did rather than what those players actually would produce after receiving them.

While $7 million per year doesn’t necessarily break the Rangers bank, the term of the deal just doesn’t align with the Rangers rebuild.  It seems unlikely for the team to invest in a player who is nearing 30 who has yet to hit 30 goals or 60 points in a season.  There are few examples of players improving  production after age 30.

To say that Kreider’s fitness and physical condition make him an exception to the over 30  rule, you must consider that Kreider plays a hard physical game and with that has a higher propensity for injury.  Remember the career of Rick Nash and how quickly his power game shifted to the perimeter as he battled injuries and concussions in his early thirties. Fortunately for the Rangers they traded Nash before concussions ultimately forced early retirement.

The prospect of a Kreider extension is not the net present value of the contract but the residual value of the cap hit in outlying years. The Rangers will have to deal with the extension of Zibanejad, as well as to extend their up and coming players Adam Fox, Kravstov, Kaako, Chytil and others will be coming off their entry level contracts after the 2022 season.   Looking further to 2024, it’s difficult to envision the Rangers tying up $20 million in two left wingers (Panarin and Kreider) both of whom will be in their mid-thirties.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 27: Chris Kreider #20 of the New York Rangers celebrates his goal at 12:06 of the third period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Madison Square Garden on December 27, 2018 in New York City. The Blue Jackets defeated the Rangers 3-2 in overtime. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Life after Kreider

Trading Kreider will clearly have an impact on the lineup in the short term.  It creates some risk in reliance upon unproven players and may force a trade down the road for cost effective replacement.  The Rangers have done well to develop their farm system beyond Kaako and Kravstov, but they have a few years before Jake Elmer, Morgan Barron and others will be ready. There are many who believe Brendan Lemieux can one day carry a top six forward bag.  It’s important to also consider the dimension of pick or prospect that trading Kreider may bring back.

Teams who have shown interest in Kreider over the past year are the Boston Bruins, Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche.  Reportedly, the Rangers were close to sending Kreider to Colorado this past June for the 16th overall pick in the 2019 Draft.  The players who the Rangers will target in return for Kreider could be among Nashville’s Eeli Tovanen, Winnipeg’s Kristian Vesalainen, Colorado’s Martin Kaut or Shane Bowers, or Boston’s Trent Frederic.  All these prospects are a year or two away which is commensurate with Gorton’s overall plan and timeline.

The biggest variable in this decision is where the Rangers are currently.   They clearly are still building and will be cycling contracts out over the next two seasons.  During that time their young prospect pool will continue to develop.  Gorton will have both cap flexibility and a very deep group of outstanding prospects (particularly defensemen and goaltenders).  These assets may help the Rangers land emerging or established players down the road.