New York Rangers: Warning signs in Hartford
The Hartford Wolf Pack season is over and it is being lauded as an example of the New York Rangers successful rebuild. Not so fast.
One of the promises made by the New York Rangers was that as part of the rebuild, the team was going to revamp the organization on all levels. That meant scouting, player development and their top minor league affiliate, the Hartford Wolf Pack. On the surface it looks like an unmitigated success, but when taking a deeper look there are reasons to be concerned.
The AHL cancelled the rest of the season and playoffs, meaning that the Wolf Pack will finish in a virtual tie for third place in the Atlantic Division with 73 points, the same as the Charlotte Checkers who have played one fewer game.
Based on points percentage, the Wolf Pack had the 13th best record in the AHL, a marked improvement over last season when they had the 27th best record, only five from the cellar. That kind of improvement has brought accolades to the organization and new head coach Kris Knoblauch and Associate Head Coach Gord Murphy along with General Manager Chris Drury.
As much as the team has improved, it maybe premature to lay all of the credit at the feet of that trio. It’s probably much more appropriate to give the credit mostly to Igor Shesterkin and also to Joey Keane. If anything, those two players were the reason the Wolf Pack were so good. Take a look at these numbers:
G W – L – OTL PTS PCT
Overall record: 62 31-20-11 73 .589
With Shesterkin 38 23- 8 – 7 53 .698
Without Shesterkin 24 8 – 12 -4 20 .417
With Keane 41 28-13-10 66 .647
Without Keane 11 3 – 7 – 1 7 .319
That’s a huge difference. With Shesterkin on the roster, the Wolf Pack’s winning percentage was the best in the Eastern Conference by far, their .698 points percentage trailing only the West’s Milwaukee Admirals with .714.
Their .417 points percentage without Shesterkin would be the worst in the entire league.
Shesterkin vs. Huska/Berube
There’s no denying that Igor Shesterkin had fabulous numbers with the Wolf Pack. He finished with a 17-4-3 record, a 1.90 goals against average and .934 save percentage.
His record is even more unbelievable if you take out a two game stretch in December. The Wolf Pack lost back-to-back games to Charlotte by a combined score of 13-4. In those two games Shesterkin allowed eight goals on 42 shots in a little over 65 minutes of work. Take out those two games and it drops his GAA to 1.64 and his save percentage increases to .942.
The Wolf Pack used rookie Adam Huska and veteran J.F. Berube to replace Shesterkin or back him up. Their combined record was 12-14-6, with a 2.99 goals against average and a .892 save percentage.
How good was Shesterkin? In 25 starts he allowed two or fewer goals 17 times with three shutouts. Compare that to Huska who in 24 starts allowed two or fewer goals nine times. In Berube’s seven starts he allowed two goals twice.
After Shesterkin was promoted, the Wolf Pack allowed three or more goals 13 times in 18 games. That’s why they the Wolf Pack’s season ended badly.
A weak offense
Shesterkin’s brilliance covered up for the impotent Wolf Pack offense. Hartford scored 171 goals on the season, 20th overall in the AHL. Meanwhile, they allowed only 173 goals, tenth best in the league. The power play was a mess with an anemic 13.8% success rate. Meanwhile, the penalty kill was fifth best in the league with a 85.8% success rate. We all know the adage, a team’s best penalty killer is the goalie and in this case the goalie was Shesterkin.
There was no individual fire power either. Vinni Lettieri led the team in goals with 25, 10th best in the AHL. Next best were Tim Gettinger and Matt Beleskey, each with 16 goals. That tied for 60th most in the AHL. Lettieri’s team leading 47 points was 19th best in the league. Next was Danny O’Regan with 38 points, 60th best in the AHL.
It’s frightening to think of where the team would have been without Lettieri. He scored nine of the team’s 30 power play goals. The overall weakness of the forwards has to be seen as a development issue.
Development issues
If the mission of a minor league affiliate is to serve as a feeder network for the major league team, that worked when it came to Igor Shesterkin. He got the experience he needed, was used wisely and was well prepared for his NHL debut.
The same goes for Filip Chytil who was sent to Hartford at the beginning of the season. With three goals and nine points in nine games, he earned his promotion when Mika Zibanejad was injured and he never looked back once in the NHL. Unfortunately, when it comes to other Rangers prospects, there wasn’t much to talk about.
While Phil DiGiuseppe earned his promotion and played regularly, at age 26 he can hardly be called a prospect. The other prospects who were promoted failed to impress. Time appears to be running out for Tim Gettinger, Steven Fogarty and Boo Nieves and they didn’t have impressive AHL seasons either. It’s telling that the team had to trade Hartford’s best defenseman to get Julien Gauthier, a forward with AHL credentials and potential not shown by any other forward with the Wolf Pack.
The Rangers were able to promote Ryan Lindgren and he became a vital piece of the team. It’s important to remember that he spent the entire 2018-19 season (less five games) with the old Wolf Pack coaching regime. That’s where he developed into the player he became this season.
As far as other blueliners go, it has to be a concern that Libor Hajek, Yegor Rykov, Sean Day, Brandon Crawley and Darren Raddysh were not considered strong enough to be called up when the Rangers traded Brady Skjei. It meant that the Rangers coaching staff felt that there wasn’t a prospect in Hartford who could compare to Brendan Smith.
Finally, one has to wonder about the experiences of Lias Andersson and Vitali Kravtsov. For Andersson, the season was an absolute disaster and we have no idea about what really happened when he was in Hartford.
As for Kravtsov, his departure for Russia and disjointed season has to be seen as a setback in his career development. You would think that the team would prioritize their best prospect and make sure that his season was a success. Instead, it was a mess and we can only hope that his return to the AHL got him back on the right track.
Kravtsov ended up playing 34 games after he returned, scoring six goals and 14 points. All indications are that he played a much better two-way game when he returned. The hope has to be that he will be ready to make the jump to the NHL sometime in the 2020-21 season.
The final grade
So, how was the Hartford season? The success stories were Igor Shesterkin, Filip Chytil and Ryan Lindgren. The failures were Lias Andersson, Steven Fogarty, Boo Nieves and Tim Gettinger. Incomplete grades have to be assigned to Libor Hajek, Yegor Rykov and Vitali Kravtsov. The jury is still out on Julien Gauthier who notched two assists in 12 games with the Rangers and is still looking for his first NHL goal after 17 games. If Gauthier can turn into a productive forward for the Rangers, it will make Joey Keane a success story for the 2019-20 Wolf Pack.
If anything, the mediocrity of the Shesterkin-less Hartford Wolf Pack is an indictment of the pre-rebuild New York Rangers organization and a direct result of the subsequent rebuild. Since the organization was so weak at forward, they were forced to promote players like Howden, Chytil and Kakko when they should have been learning their craft in the AHL.
With all of the plaudits for the resurgence of the Wolf Pack, it’s important to look at the numbers. In many ways it is not a pretty picture, but it is a work in progress. Time will tell.
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