How will the New York Rangers look on opening night?
The New York Rangers line-up for opening night is all but set in stone
Looking over the New York Rangers roster provides a simple case of what you see is what you get. Without additional transactions to free up more salary cap space, the Rangers have very little wiggle room to make any roster changes. In fact, the team may not even be able to both retain all of their restricted free agents (RFA) and remains cap compliant.
With little freedom to make any additional roster changes, the opening night’s line-up is already beginning to take shape. For better or worse, the team will not look that much different from the team that skated in the Stanley Cup Qualifier this past August. There are still decisions to be made with the RFA’s and some familiar faces have moved on, but the core dynamic of this club is already etched into the ice.
The Rangers were relatively quiet during the opening days of free agency, and with good reason. The team holds $12,994,444 in buyout payments, creating unusable dead cap space. This total is equal to 15.94% of their total allowable salary cap expenditure. The Rangers have really painted themselves into a corner with their decisions to sever contracts prematurely. If there are no more buyouts conducted, the Rangers will finally be free of their self inflicted dead cap issues following the 2022-23 season.
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The New York Rangers salary cap concerns do not end with their buyout payments. The team’s three RFA’s have all filed for salary arbitration, with both Tony DeAngelo and Ryan Strome coming off career years and expected to receive significant raises over their 2019-20 salaries. Additionally, the team could potentially exceed the upper cap limit of $81.5 million due to the performance bonuses attached to their many entry level contracts (ELC). Lets take a look at how the team got here.
Too much of a good thing
The New York Rangers have eight players on ELC’s, including first overall pick Alexis Lafrenière, currently listed on the NHL roster. With each of these contracts, there is the potential for performance bonuses to be earned. As of this writing, the Rangers could potentially owe $10,062,500 in bonuses due at the end of the season. While not all of the bonuses milestones will be met, the team does need to be fiscally responsible and account for the possibility.
Additionally, as performance bonuses are only potential earnings, teams are permitted a carryover allowance into the next season should any achieved bonuses push a team over the cap limit. The carryover allowance is equal to $6,112,500, which forces a team with bonus potential in excess of this total to maintain a bonus cushion, creating more dead cap space. The Rangers current bonus cushion is $3,950,000, bringing their total dead cap hit to just short of $17 million.
After accounting for the dead cap space, the Rangers are left with $11,729,367 available to retain their three RFA’s. Each of the RFA’s, DeAngelo, Strome, and Brendan Lemieux are headed to salary arbitration hearings over the next three weeks. Expectations are that it will take a minimum of $11.5 million to retain all three players. That leaves very little room for any of the players to be awarded any more than the expected minimums.
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The Rangers would do well to agree to terms with, or move on from, each player before they reach their respective arbitration hearing dates. If no such agreements are able to be reached, the team may be forced into some hard decisions. In fact, to remain cap compliant, it would already be in the Rangers best interests to search out trading partners for Ryan Strome.
The line-up, subject to change, but not really
What will the New York Rangers look like for the 2020-21 season? The final product is still in flux, but there is enough in place to make some educated guesses. It appears that the Rangers are considering shifting either Adam Fox or DeAngelo shift to the left. @vzmercogliano reports that DeAngelo would welcome the challenge and has speculated that any additional ELC call-ups are unlikely. The two main questions then, headed into next season are: Will Strome be retained? and, how will all of pieces, old and new, fit together?
Lets look at the how the line-up should shape up. Keeping the top line in tact should constitute the easiest decision of the season for Coach Quinn. The KZB line of Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Pavel Buchnevich has been a consistently productive line for the Rangers over the past two seasons. No need for fix what is not broken.
The second line will again be powered by Hart Trophy finalist Artemi Panarin on left wing. The second trio will be centered by either Strome or Filip Chytil depending on how the former’s arbitration hearing plays out. On the right side, Kaapo Kakko will move up from the third line to replace Jesper Fast, who was lost to free agency when he signed a three year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes.
If Chytil is not centering the second line, he will most certainly be centering the third line. He will have the first overall pick, Lafrenière on his left flank and most likely Brett Howden on his right, replacing the promoted Kakko. However, if Chytil takes over as Panarin’s center, expect Howden to be in the middle with Julien Gauthier at right wing.
The fourth line should see newly signed Colin Blackwell at center with his 56.1% face off winning percentage from the 2019-20 campaign. Although this percentage is based on an extremely small sample size of less than 100 total NHL face off’s, it shows better potential than any of the Rangers current centers. Blackwell will be flanked by Lemieux on the left and either Gauthier or Kevin Rooney on the right, with Philip Di Giuseppe as the 13th forward.
On defense, the switching of DeAngelo to the left to pair up with Jacob Trouba rounds out the Rangers top four. This allows the Fox / Ryan Lindgren pairing to remain in tact. No need for new defensive coach Jacques Martin to change what has worked. The bottom pair looks to have Brendan Smith on the right and newly acquired Jack Johnson on the left with Anthony Bitetto filling in as the seventh defenseman. In goal, there is little doubt Coach Quinn will roll out a one two punch of Igor Shesterkin and Alexandar Georgiev, who just re-signed on a two year deal worth an average of $2.425 million per year.
In a snapshot, the team should look like this.
If Strome is retained:
Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich Panarin – Strome – Kakko Lafrenière – Chytil – Howden Lemieux – Blackwell – Gauthier (Rooney / Di Gisueppe)
If Strome is not retained:
Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich Panarin – Chytil – Kakko Lafrenière – Howden – Gauthier Lemieux – Blackwell – Rooney (Di Gisueppe)
Defense DeAngelo – Trouba Lindgren – Fox Johnson – Smith (Bitetto)
Shesterkin / Georgiev
This is not quite the finished product, as the team is in its final stages of the rebuild. But it certainly will make for a fun team to watch.
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