What can you really expect from NHL Draft picks?

Why it matters

If a team intends to rebuild through the draft it should take years. A drafted player needs a minimum of three to four years to make his NHL debut.  For example, 78 players in the class of 2016 have played at least one NHL game, but only 31 have played as many as 50 games over four seasons.

There is one factor that is undeniable when it comes to the draft and it can jump start a rebuild.   Top picks tend to be NHL ready much earlier that their fellow draftees, especially top three picks.  That’s where the Rangers have lucked out, getting Kakko at second overall in 2019 and Alexis Lafrenière this year.

Those two lottery wins have accelerated the Rangers rebuild to where they are calling it a “retooling,” but the real reason are the acquisitions of Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba along with the development of Mika Zibanejad and Tony DeAngelo.  We forget that though Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren were rookies this season, they were drafted in 2016 and were given three more years of development time in the NCAA or the AHL to get to the point where they could excel in the NHL.

And that’s what we have to remember when it comes to prospects like Vitali Kravtsov, K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundkvist, Lauri Pajuniemi, Olof Lindbom, Matthew Robertson and Karl Henriksson, all selected in the first or second rounds over the last three years.  It takes time for players to develop and rushing them along with high expectations can result in abject failures like Lias Andersson or they can hit roadblocks like Kravtsov did last season.

It’s all the more reason to appreciate how remarkable Filip Chytil is.  A late first round pick in the 2017 draft, he has already appeared in 144 games, fourth most of his draft class.  The only players ahead of him were picked first, second and third that year. Of his draft class, he is third in goals and seventh in points.

Igor Shesterkin was selected in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft and it took him five and a half years to make it to Broadway.  Think of the pressure on him to succeed if he had been taken 18th overall instead of 118th.

Tony DeAngelo was taken 19th overall in the 2014 draft.  He was traded twice and it took him five years to find his way in the NHL and show that his first round status was justified.

That’s why no one should be panicking if Vitali Kravtsov plays the entire season with Traktor in the KHL or K’Andre Miller or Morgan Barron spend the entire season in Hartford.

And similarly, if Alexis Lafrenière has an “ordinary” rookie season, it doesn’t mean a thing.  He will eventually be what everyone expects, a superlative player.

The Rangers by the numbers

How have the Rangers done in the drafts from 2006 to 2015?   Over those ten years, the Rangers drafted 62 players.   25 of those players made it to the NHL and played in at least one game.

How many appeared in as many as 50 NHL games?  Only 15 out of 62. .  11 of the 62 have made made it into 200 NHL games, a 17.7% success rate.   Nine of the 11 have played 200  or more of those games actually with the Rangers.  The only player left from those drafts still with the team is Chris Kreider, though all 11 are still in the NHL.

In those ten years the Rangers had 15 picks in the first or second rounds.   73% or 11 of those selections made it to the NHL.

With ten picks in the last three years in the first two rounds, the Rangers have to hope to meet or best that success rate. Only time will tell.