Welcome Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Rangers rumor mill

The New York Rangers rumor mill exploded into action yesterday. All it took was a tweet from Francois Gagnon of the French Canadian RDS sports channel to light the flame. In the tweet Gagnon indicated that New York Rangers General Manager Chris Drury was interested in acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets. Here’s the tweet and its translation, courtesy of Google Translate.

“By the way, according to information obtained during the final, the #Rangers of New York would be more than interested in acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois. Ongoing negotiations with the #Jets on the parameters of a transaction. It’s not done, but Chris Drury is very interested”

Of course the New York Rangers are interested

Of course Chris Drury is interested.  Dubois is a young and efficient second line center, who with a little growth to his game could potentially be a number one center. Who wouldn’t be interested? The point to review though is how interested Drury actually is and could a trade between the New York Rangers and Winnipeg Jets, frequent trade partners the past few seasons, realistically occur for the 24-year-old center?

There are pros and cons to every personnel transaction, but especially in trades involving top players. Costs to acquire in terms of players, prospects and picks, salary cap restrictions and team chemistry chief among them. If there is any real traction to this trade rumor, this is an exercise Drury has already undertaken. It is perhaps also an exercise the fans should invest in to break from the shiny new toy syndrome and judge the potential trade with more pragmatism.

The Pros

Pierre-Luc Dubois is a young center who just turned 24 years old a week ago. He was selected third overall in the 2016 NHL entry draft by the Columbus Blue Jackets and has six years of NHL experience under his belt. Dubois has been a positive possession player for his career, never falling below a 50.5% Corsi rating. Averaging more than a hit per game, he is a player that does not shy away from playing with a physical edge. Most notably though, Dubois has been a productive points producer. scoring 20 or more goals three times with a career high 28 goals scored last season. He has also reached the sixty point plateau twice, with a career high of 61 set in 2017-18.

What may be of the highest importance to the New York Rangers is Dubois’ chemistry with Artemi Panarin. The pair played together for 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons with the Blue Jackets, meshing well together. Over a span of 160 games the pair were possession darlings, amassing a 56.07% Corsi rating. They would be on the ice for 113 even strength goals and 34 more on the power play. Overall, the pairing were on the ice for 61 more goals for than goals allowed. Undoubtedly, Dubois and Panarin found success while playing together.

The cost?

If this trade were to go through and Drury were able to magically find a way to make the financial impact negligible, who would be lost in trade? Kaapo Kakko is the primary name floated about social media. Would the 2023 first round pick need to be included, leaving the team without a first round pick for two straight season’s? How about one or several of the organizations young defenseman prospects? The question really is, how much is too much? Surrendering young cost controlled players for a young, but no longer cost controlled player is not a recipe for success under a hard salary cap.

The impact in the organization goes a little further as well. Not only would the team be at risk of breaking up the ‘kid line’ which showed so much promise during the playoffs, but they would force players to move up or down the depth chart before or after they are ready. Moving Kakko would almost ensure that Vitali Kravtsov, Sammy Blais or both get top six assignments. If Chytil were not lost in trade, he would then be relegated to third line center for the foreseeable future. None of this aids, in a positive way, the development of the team’s youth.

Being thrust into a role they are not ready for will destroy players’ confidence and stunt their growth. Conversely, leaving a player who appears finally ready to break out in a lesser role does not provide that player the opportunity to spread their wings. Rangers fans have learned that player development is not always a linear path, but disrupting the players individual path is certainly not helpful.

What is the answer?

It is no secret that the New York Rangers, whichever their line combinations, require a second line center. Dubois may be an available and quick option, but he is also a complicated option. In general, in house solutions, when available, are the simplest and best options. In this case, it would be better for the Rangers to pass on Dubois and focus on elevating Chytil.

Are their concerns with the the Chytil option? Yes. But there were concerns when Strome was promoted to center Panarin too. Strome, in his previous three seasons, two with the Edmonton Oilers and one with the Rangers, had averaged just 1.55 points per sixty even strength minutes in a bottom six role. Ironically, that is the exact per sixty minutes points total at even strength that Chytil produced this past season. Top six minutes and playing with a top ten offensive player did wonders for Strome’s overall game, why not Chytil’s too?