Rangers Free Agency: How much should Alexandar Georgiev get paid?
How much should the New York Rangers pay their young Bulgarian goaltender?
Alexandar Georgiev is an arbitration eligible Restricted Free Agent (RFA) and is due a raise on his Entry Level Contract salary of $700,000. With bonuses, his pay was higher (at least $100k more), but after three professional seasons, he can count on an increase. The New York Rangers saved $3 million in cap space when they bought out Henrik Lundqvist. Will all of that money go to Alexandar Georgiev?
To put a value on Georgiev, it’s worth looking at what other goaltenders in the NHL are making. To put it perspective, the Average Annual Value (AAV) of Georgiev’s contract last season was $792,500.
When it comes to goalies, there is a stratosphere with a handful of netminders making north of $7 million AAV. They include goalies like Sergei Bobrovsky, Carey Price, Marc-Andre Fleury, Tuukka Rask and until Wednesday, Henrik Lundqvist.
After that there are a number of goalies in the $4-6 million range. Most are number one starters or veterans. Georgiev is neither.
Georgiev’s season
Alexandar Georgiev is 24, turning 25 in February. He has been an NHL goalie ever since he was promoted from Hartford late in the 2017-18 season. He has appeared in 77 games since that time. In his first full season he was the full time back up to Henrik Lundqvist. This season he split duties with Lundqvist until Igor Shesterkin took the starting job in January. Georgiev was the clear number two goalie from that point on.
In 34 games, Georgiev posted a 17-14-2 record with a 3.04 Goals Against Average (GAA) and a Save Percentage (Sv%) of .910. Those numbers are similar to what he recorded in the previous two seasons. Six times this season he had two game winning streaks. Whenever he was presented with an opportunity to win a third game, he failed five times winning three in a row only once.
It was an inconsistent season for the young goalie. He posted two shutouts including a stellar road victory in Vegas, but he also allowed four or more goals 10 times in his 32 starts.
Ranger fans remember his amazing two wins over Toronto in 2018-19 when he stopped 99 of 101 shots. Georgiev is at his best when he faces a lot of shots. He faced 40 or more shots in a game seven times this season and won five times.
New signings
Three goalies were signed in the last few days and it is worth looking at their deals to see what the going price is for a netminder.
Brian Elliott, Philadelphia Flyers – The Flyers extended their veteran netminder for one more season at the cost of $1.5 million. The 35 year old is set to be Carter Hart’s back up for another season. This year he started 27 times, going 16-7-4. He posted a 2.87 GAA and a .899 Sv%. His new deal is for one year and he took a half million pay cut from his salary last season.
Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins – The Penguins have committed to Jarry over Matt Murray, inking him to three year, $10.5 million contract with an AAV of $3.5 million. Jarry is 25 years old and was a RFA with no arbitration rights.
Jarry had started 31 games with a 20-12-1 record, a 2.43 GAA and .921 Sv%. He was coming off a standard RFA contract he signed two years ago for an AAV of $675k.
Laurent Brossoit, Winnipeg Jets – Brossoit is an interesting case and in many ways is most similar to Geoergiev. He is 27 years old and just signed a one year extension as a UFA for $1.5 million. This was a slight increase over the $1.22 million he made last season as an arbitration eligible RFA.
Brossoit will be the back up to Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck. Brossoit made 15 starts and finished with a 6-7-1 record, a 3.28 GAA and a .895 Sv%. He is one year removed from a season when he finished with a 2.52 GAA and a .925 Sv%.
Comparables
There are a few goalies whose careers parallel Georgiev’s. Looking at their contracts can give an idea of what he may settle for.
Jack Campbell, Toronto Maple Leafs – When the Rangers were shopping Georgiev at the trade deadline, the rumor was that the Maple Leafs were interested. Instead, they made a deal with Los Angeles, acquiring Jack Campbell.
Campbell has two years left on a contract that pays him $1.65 million annually. Last season he started 26 games as the backup to Jonathan Quick in L.A. and Frederik Andersen in Toronto. His record for two mediocre teams was 11-12-3 with a 2.80 GAA and a .904 Sv%, numbers that were better or similar to the Ranger goalie.
Aaron Dell, San Jose Sharks – Aaron Dell is a UFA and it will be interesting to see what he brings in the free agent marketplace. He was the back up to Martin Jones in San Jose and started 30 games, going 12-15-3 for a bad team. His 3.01 GAA and .907 Sv% are almost identical to Georgiev’s in four fewer starts.
Dell is coming off a two year contract with an AAV of $1.9 million that he signed as a UFA in 2018. He signed that contract as an extension when he had a solid season with a 15-5-4 record and a GAA of 2.64 and a Sv% of .914.
Alex Stalock, Minnesota Wild – On the low end of the spectrum is Stalock who is in the middle of a three year deal with an AAV of $785k per season. He had a rock solid year in Minnesota, starting 36 games with a record of 20-11-4. His Sv% was .910 and his GAA was an excellent 2.67.
The 33 year old journeyman is a bargain, supplanting Devan Dubnyk in the Wild’s starting goalie rotation and starting all of Minnesota’s games in the Stanley Cup Qualifier that they lost to Vancouver.
There are some aberrations. Mikko Koskinen of Edmonton has an AAV of $4.5 million and veterans like Philipp Grubauer has an AAV of $3.33 million for Colorado as the back up. Jonathan Bernier of Detroit has a $3 million AAV and won the starting job over Jimmy Howard in his 12 NHL season. All three had similar numbers to Georgiev and either began or ended the season in a secondary role.
So, what is he worth?
The Rangers will be watching a couple of players very closely as they negotiate with Georgiev. Matt Murray of the Penguins and Linus Ullmark of Buffalo are arbitration eligible RFA’s. Pittsburgh is looking to deal Murray and he should be the target of a team looking for a starting goalie. Ullmark split goaltending duties with Carter Hutton who is going into the last of his own contract at a $2.75 million AAV.
UFA netminders similar to Georgiev that they will be monitoring include Malcom Suban, Garret Sparks along with veterans like Cam Talbot, Mike Condon and Louis Domingue.
Based on the contracts awarded to Brian Elliott and Laurent Brossoit it appears that the going rate for a back up will be in the vicinity of $1.5 million. If Georgiev goes to arbitration, that is probably as much as he could hope for.
If the Rangers want to lock him in for longer term, they could probably offer a two or three year deal with an AAV of $2-2.5 million. That my be wise, especially since they are not at risk to lose him in the Seattle expansion draft. Look for the Blueshirts to make him a qualifying offer by the deadline on Wednesday.
Considering the challenges coming to agreements with Tony DeAngelo, Ryan Strome and Brendan Lemieux, they should try to get Georgiev under contract sometime in the next week. The goalie has until October 10 to file for arbitration and those hearings would begin starting on October 20.
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