New York Rangers’ Kevin Hayes’ Strange Season: A Full Analysis
By Dan Carrozzi
Kevin Hayes has been a consistent source of offense for the New York Rangers in the 2016-17 NHL season. However, Hayes’ possession metrics are downright ugly. We compare Hayes to his peers to try and reconcile this oddity.
The 2016-17 NHL season is Kevin Hayes’ third in the NHL, all with the New York Rangers. So far this season through 73 games, Hayes has 17 goals and 32 assists and looks poised to break the 50 point barrier for the first time in his career.
His assist total has already eclipsed his career high. Also, he has tied his career high in goals scored in a season, equaling his rookie campaign. Hayes ranks fifth among the Rangers in scoring.
For context, who are other forwards near the 50 point mark this season? How about Taylor Hall, Corey Perry and Nathan MacKinnon who have 51 or Brandon Saad and Joe Thornton with 50. Hayes is even ahead of Anze Kopitar who has only posted 48 points so far in a down year.
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However, when evaluating Hayes from an advanced statistics point of view, Hayes has posted the worst possession numbers out of all Rangers forwards.
2016-17 Season: 5 on 5 Scoring and Possession
| Player | G/60 | A1/60 | P/60 | P1/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Lindberg | 0.68 (153) | 0.68 (86) | 1.85 (92) | 1.36 (106) |
| Brock Nelson | 0.84 (78) | 0.52 (152) | 1.81 (101) | 1.36 (107) |
| Jamie Benn | 0.67 (156) | 0.67 (89) | 1.96 (65) | 1.35 (108) |
| KEVIN HAYES | 0.84 (80) | 0.52 (153) | 1.68 (136) | 1.35 (109) |
| Markus Granlund | 0.97 (42) | 0.39 (221) | 1.48 (187) | 1.35 (110) |
| Patrick Eaves | 0.90 (64) | 0.45 (189) | 1.73 (121) | 1.34 (111) |
| Micheal Ferland | 1.02 (39) | 0.31 (264) | 1.49 (177) | 1.34 (112) |
| Player | CF% | Rel CF% | SCF% | GF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Lindberg | 47.21 (265) | -1.11 (223) | 41.48 (323) | 53.19 (123) |
| Brock Nelson | 45.09 (312) | -3.62 (295) | 45.98 (275) | 49.33 (201) |
| Jamie Benn | 49.26 (206) | -1.13 (226) | 45.74 (280) | 50.70 (175) |
| KEVIN HAYES | 43.60 (329) | -5.86 (322) | 50.84 (145) | 51.22 (164) |
| Markus Granlund | 50.67 (153) | 3.27 (68) | 47.04 (250) | 40.26 (301) |
| Patrick Eaves | 51.76 (107) | 2.33 (94) | 54.84 (62) | 53.95 (107) |
| Micheal Ferland | 49.71 (192) | -1.40 (236) | 47.89 (231) | 50.85 (170) |
(Stats courtesy of Corsica.Hockey, Rank out of 340 forwards with at least 500 minutes TOI)
5 on 5, Hayes’ point production is that of a high-end 2nd line player and borderline 1st line player. This is simply based on the premise that if you’re ranked in the top 90, you’re a 1st line forward; 91-180 means you’re a 2nd line forward, etc.
The forwards listed above are scoring at near the same rate as Hayes, in terms of Primary Points per 60 minutes. Their possession metrics rank all over the board however. (Side note: Oscar Lindberg is having a very nice season for the Rangers, yet continues to fly under the radar).
Hayes by far has the worst CF% and rel CF% of the players listed. Interestingly enough. Hayes is keeping his head above water in terms of both SCF% and GF%.
However, Hayes has not only been putting up numbers this season, but each of the past three seasons he has spent in the NHL thus far.
Past 3 NHL Seasons: 5 on 5 Scoring and Possession
| Player | G/60 | A1/60 | P/60 | P1/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Benn | 0.89 (47) | 0.80 (36) | 2.36 (6) | 1.69 (20) |
| Brandon Saad | 1.09 (9) | 0.61 (115) | 2.21 (15) | 1.69 (21) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 1.01 (21) | 0.67 (78) | 2.10 (33) | 1.68 (22) |
| Thomas Vanek | 0.78 (91) | 0.90 (11) | 1.98 (44) | 1.68 (23) |
| KEVIN HAYES | 0.83 (70) | 0.85 (18) | 1.98 (45) | 1.68 (24) |
| Jannik Hansen | 0.89 (41) | 0.79 (41) | 1.91 (59) | 1.68 (25) |
| Jeff Skinner | 1.05 (16) | 0.63 (102) | 1.88 (67) | 1.68 (26) |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 0.74 (108) | 0.93 (8) | 2.28 (10) | 1.67 (27) |
| TJ Oshie | 0.98 (24) | 0.69 (70) | 2.12 (28) | 1.67 (28) |
| Player | CF% | Rel CF% | SCF% | GF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Benn | 52.69 (79) | 1.48 (126) | 51.07 (137) | 52.12 (133) |
| Brandon Saad | 52.68 (81) | 2.74 (71) | 55.34 (33) | 58.27 (20) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 51.82 (116) | 2.08 (92) | 51.73 (110) | 56.44 (55) |
| Thomas Vanek | 47.10 (262) | -3.08 (278) | 52.40 (93) | 50.46 (162) |
| KEVIN HAYES | 47.86 (247) | -0.46 (204) | 49.84 (180) | 55.61 (66) |
| Jannik Hansen | 48.17 (239) | -1.21 (237) | 50.70 (159) | 52.24 (130) |
| Jeff Skinner | 51.25 (133) | -0.68 (210) | 48.86 (210) | 47.60 (230) |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 50.72 (155) | 1.18 (139) | 52.79 (81) | 58.41 (17) |
| TJ Oshie | 51.48 (127) | 0.01 (189) | 53.96 (54) | 60.96 (4) |
(Stats courtesy of Corsica.Hockey, Rank out of 317 forwards with at least 1500 minutes TOI)
The company Hayes keeps is rare. Over the past three seasons, Hayes has scored at a rate of a high-end 1st line forward.
Again, his possession numbers are not very complimentary. However, they are not as poor as his performance this season, indicating that his numbers have taken a big hit this season alone.
It is interesting to note that one name that pops up on both sets of lists is Dallas Stars Captain Jamie Benn. That’s not a bad player to be compared with, although Benn has scored significantly more points (in all situations) than Hayes in that time.
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Conclusion
On potential justification for Hayes’ poor possession metrics in comparison to those of his production peers is the Rangers’ style of play. That north-south, quick strike, opportunistic style is one that Hayes’ line, with JT Miller and Michael Grabner, has excelled in.
That style of play also is not very conducive to having good possession stats as they wait to pounce on an opponent’s mistake and try to score off the rush, instead of establishing a presence in the offensive zone and trying to score off a cycle.
The fact that Hayes’ Scoring Chance% rank is comfortably in that 2nd line range, while his CF% is near the bottom of the league, seems to back this theory up.
This season, both Hayes and Miller have also been relied on by coach Alain Vigneault to be two-way forwards. In fact, the entire line has been tasked with having more defensive responsibilities not only at even strength but on the penalty kill.
As a result, Hayes is not sheltered from unfavorable match ups, he is being tasked with having to defend against bigger threats instead. Therefore, the shift in Hayes’ role on the team and how he is deployed has also detrimentally affected his possession numbers.
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Just as points do not tell the entire story of a player, neither do possession numbers. Hayes is one of the Rangers’ best and reliable players despite not measuring up from an analytics point of view. It is something to raise some concern over, but Hayes is still only 24 years old. His play over the next few seasons will make it clear if this season marked the beginning of a trend or was merely an anomaly.