New York Rangers: Can Derek Stepan’s production be replaced?
By Dan Carrozzi
Trading center Derek Stepan has left a void in the New York Rangers’ forward corps. Stepan was also the team’s 3rd highest scorer. Can we expect the Rangers to be able to cover the loss of his production?
When the New York Rangers traded their top line center to the Arizona Coyotes, they lost a significant portion of their offense. Stepan was third among Rangers skaters in scoring, tallying 17 goals and 55 points in 81 games.
Stepan also led the team in powerplay scoring with four of his goals and 18 of his points coming on the man advantage. Stepan’s lone shorthanded point was a goal.
The Rangers were one of the highest scoring teams in the NHL last regular season, averaging 3.09 goals per game and 253 goals overall. Their offense and forward depth was a big reason the Rangers ended the year with 102 points in the standings.
The loss of Stepan will make this a difficult feat to replicate, especially since they do not have a clear successor in place. However, the Rangers have a few players, both newly acquired and who they are looking for to step up, who may be up for the job.
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Offense from Defense
The first and most obvious choice to replace Stepan’s production, both 5 on 5 and on the powerplay is not another center. It isn’t even another forward, it’s prized free agent acquisition defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk.
Last season, Shattenkirk scored 13 goals and 56 points overall in 80 games for the St. Louis Blues and Washington Capitals.
To see how Shattenkirk could offset the loss of Stepan, we’re going to make a ballpark projection for his numbers next season.
Shattenkirk shot 8.1% last season, a bit higher than his career average of 6.6%. Also, you can rely on him to get around 180 shots on net over the course of a full season. This comes out to 12 goals; and penciling in 35 assists, would total 47 points.
Since he will be replacing Dan Girardi in the lineup who had four goals and 15 points, this is a net gain of eight goals and 33 points.
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Shattenkirk alone makes up for the entirety of Stepan’s powerplay offense and then some. The blueliner tallied eight of his 13 goals and 27 of his 56 points on the powerplay last season.
Saying that Shattenkirk would total around seven goals and 23 points on the powerplay is a reasonable estimate.
All of Stepan’s powerplay production can be taken care of by Shattenkirk. In addition, we can expect around five of Shattenkirk’s projected goals to come at even strength, and 24 of his points.
Stepan had 12 goals and 36 points at even strength last season. This leaves seven goals and 12 points to come from other players.
A little health goes a long way
Two players who are projected to be key contributors next season are coming off of injuries. Mika Zibanejad and Pavel Buchnevich are expected to step up in their increased roles this coming season.
If their growth proceeds how the Rangers hope they will, they will more than make up for Stepan’s point production.
Zibanejad is set to assume Stepan’s mantle as the team’s number one center.
He scored 14 goals and 37 points in 56 games, his season shortened by a broken leg. Four of his goals and 11 of those points were on the powerplay.
Extrapolating these numbers across a full 82 game season would yield about 20 goals and 54 points. On the powerplay, that extrapolation would result in six goals and 16 points. Since Zibanejad shot at 11.8% vs his career average of 11%, this is a reasonable estimate.
Personally, I feel this is a conservative estimate and that Zibanejad, with another season on the team and in an increased role, will see a jump in his production.
Even taking this estimate, we could expect Zibanejad to score at least 14 goals and 38 points at even strength next season. Coincidentally, this is just about what he scored in total last season.
This would be a net increase of four goals and 12 points at even strength.
So, Zibanejad can pick up the majority of the slack at even strength with Shattenkirk covering the powerplay. Therefore the Rangers need about three more goals.
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Sophomore surge?
As mentioned in the previous section, Pavel Buchnevich is also returning from an injury shortened rookie year. Also like Zibanejad, another year on the Rangers, (and North America for that matter) along with an increased role should boost his production.
Like Zibanejad, we are going to keep our estimate conservative. This is largely due to the lack of NHL data on Buchnevich, having only played the one aforementioned shortened season.
In his 41 games played last season, Buchnevich scored eight goals and had 20 points. A straightforward extrapolation would bump those numbers up to 16 goals and 40 points, not unrealistic. However, Buchnevich also had a shooting percentage of 14.5% which is high but not unheard of.
Buchnevich had a shooting percentage of 9.9% in the KHL over 158 regular season games. I’m going to assume Buchnevich will shoot at least at a 10% clip next season. Using an estimate of 120 shots on goal, (around what Jimmy Vesey had over his rookie season in a regular top nine role), gives us 12 goals.
Buchnevich scored seven of his goals at even strength, so projecting 10 of his goals to come at even strength next season would be an increase of three goals. This would be exactly what the Rangers need to replicate Stepan’s offense.
Again, I think this is a very conservative estimate, even moreso than Zibanejad’s. I believe that having a consistent top six or even top nine role will result in Buchnevich scoring at least 45 points next season.
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In conclusion
While the Rangers center depth entering next season is still worrying, the team appears to be well covered where offensive production is concerned.
Kevin Shattenkirk’s individual production is almost enough to bridge the gap left by Stepan’s departure. This isn’t even taking into account what the powerplay quarterback will do to boost the production of his teammates.
Even expecting Zibanejad and Buchnevich to take minor steps forward would be enough to cover the rest of Stepan’s outgoing production. However, both the team and the players themselves expect much more out of their second seasons on Broadway. I have faith that they will make the next step too.
All of this additional offense isn’t even taking into account the growth of other players like Jimmy Vesey and Brady Skjei or other acquisitions such as Anthony DeAngelo.
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Although losing Stepan is undoubtedly a blow, the Rangers look positioned to replace his production, from an offensive standpoint. Already one of the more dynamic offenses in the NHL, when it was clicking, the team looks well poised to be one of them again in 2017-18.