New York Rangers: Michael Grabner chasing history

While leading the New York Rangers in goals, Michael Grabner is also finds himself in pursuit of an NHL single season scoring record. With ample time left in the regular season, will Grabner be able to etch himself into the history books?

After scoring 27 goals for the New York Rangers last season, good for second on the team, Michael Grabner was expected to regress in 2017-18.

This expectation stemmed from the fact that Grabner had a shooting percentage of 16.7% during the 2016-17 regular season. This mark was a few notches higher than his career average of 13.0%, his best shooting percentage in a season of his career.

This was coupled with the fact that Grabner was entering his age 30 season. At such an age, scorers are typically expected to continually decline in production.

Yet, Grabner currently leads the Rangers in goal scoring. At the time of this writing, he has tallied 14 goals through 30 games. He has lit the lamp five times during his last six games. He is also in the running for the ‘Cy Young Award’ only having totaled two assists so far.

All of his goal scoring has raised the possibility that he could break an NHL scoring record. Unfortunately, it’s nothing as lofty as Wayne Gretzky’s absurd 92 goals or 215 points in a season.

However, six of Grabner’s 14 goals have been scored into an empty net. Grabner most recently boosted this total by capping his hat-trick against the Carolina Hurricanes with not one, but two empty net goals.

Pavel Bure set the current record during the 1999-00 season, with nine empty netters. With 53 games left remaining on the schedule, Grabner has a real shot at breaking that single season record.

Historical Context

To put Grabner’s empty net goal scoring into perspective, here is how he lines up against the leaders in NHL history.

https://twitter.com/AdamZHerman/status/936798773681856514

The rate at which Grabner scores empty net goals, now 19 in 502 games (18.9 ENG/500 games), lands him second on the leaderboard, behind Bure.

Another thing to note is how many prolific goal scorers appear high up on this list. It makes sense for players such as Gretzky and Mario Lemieux, who were proficient at scoring goals at any time, to rank so highly. But for a complimentary player like Grabner to be so far up the list is indicative of a team that utilizes his game breaking speed.

It is also not much of a surprise to see another Rangers scorer who is also lauded for his two way play, Rick Nash, appear on this list either.

At his current pace, Grabner would finish the season with 17 empty netters, an unrealistic and ridiculous total. However, his ability to tally four more in the remaining games, seems almost inevitable.

Grabner and Empty Netters: How and Why

Another and more extensive look into this topic by Adam Herman (who provided the stats above) can be found here.

But in essence, Grabner’s presence late in games, during defense first situations, combined with his speed and defensive prowess translate into empty net goals.

Grabner is relied upon by the Rangers for his defensive play and as a penalty killer. While a man down, he is adept at breaking up plays and turning the puck the other way.

Against a team who has pulled their goaltender for the sake of offense, these opportunities usually result in goals.

Empty net goals are perceived as being less valuable than goals scored against a goalie. This is naturally due to their difficulty, or lack thereof, in scoring them. However, their importance, namely as the proverbial final nail in the coffin, means that the team who scored them has cemented their victory.

In addition, although not empirically proven, there is an argument that scoring any goal, even into an empty net, boosts a player’s confidence. Such a boost can break a player out of drought, or, as in Grabner’s case, sustain a hot streak.

Grabner’s Future Outlook

Grabner is scoring at a pace that would result in him netting 40 goals if he maintained it. He is also shooting at a very unsustainable 22.6%.

Much like his rate of empty net goals will slow down, so too will his traditional scoring.

However, Grabner may very well duplicate or even exceed his offensive output from last season. With the Rangers recent run of play of late, the organization may desire to keep Grabner for playoff run. The Rangers would sorely miss Grabner’s two way game down the road if they chose to be sellers.

The front office is obligated to do the right thing for the franchise. This may mean tradingy one or both of Michael Grabner and/or Rick Nash for assets at the deadline. Grabner is in the last year of a two year deal and has been worth every penny for a team that took a flyer on the Austrian winger.

Next: Rangers' Miller maintains consistency despite change in role

Grabner’s empty net goal scoring is a tangible reminder of all of the positives he brings to the team. It’s nice to seem him rewarded, when he scores in an unmanned net.

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