New York Rangers Expansion Draft Could Make or Break Franchise

NHL’s Expansion Draft and the New York Rangers

Last week, it was reported that the NHL was internally making the rules for an upcoming expansion draft at the general managers meetings. The league is looking to add at least 1 team (Las Vegas) to the league in the next couple of years, so if that does indeed come to fruition, then an expansion draft will be necessary and it will impact the New York Rangers.

Before getting into how this future expansion draft effects the New York Rangers—which is kind of the whole point of this article—let’s just go over the basic rules that have been leaked to the media from the meetings.

• Team can protect a combination of 7 forwards, 3 defenseman and 1 goalie, or 8 skaters and 1 goalie.
• Teams can only lose one player per each team in the expansion draft
• Players in their first or second year of professional hockey would be exempt from the draft.
• Each of the 30 teams currently in the league would have to expose at least 25 percent of its salary cap and the expansion teams have to be able to hit the cap floor at the end of the draft.

To sum up all of those points with a Rangers spin, the Rangers can only protect a total of 10 skaters if they chose to only protect 3 defenseman, or 8 skaters total if they choose to keep 4 defenders, which, in my opinion is extremely stupid.

Secondly, if there is only one team being added to the league (which I would bet against because having a total of 31 teams is an incredibly stupid thing to do, and I’m not sure how that would work with the schedule) then the Rangers can only have one of their unprotected players drafted. If a second team is also added, the Rangers can and probably will wind up losing 2 players to the draft.

Thirdly, the players the Rangers have that are in the first or second year of pro hockey will be automatically protected without using one of the New York Rangers protection spots. This would effectively protect players like Brady Skjei and Ryan Gropp who are just beginning their pro careers. Players who have been drafted and haven’t signed with the big club yet (i.e. Pavel Buchnevich) will most likely not be eligible for the draft either.

Lastly, the Rangers could potentially run into a scenario where they would have to leave a guy that they might want to keep unprotected because 25 percent of their cap needs to be available.

The last part of the expansion draft equation that hasn’t been announced officially is whether players with no-trade or no-movement clauses will be eligible for the draft, and if they are not, will they count towards the 9 to 11 players that you can protect on a team’s roster. This right here could be what could make or break the Rangers.

As the Rangers stand with contracts going into next year, the team has 6 players on the roster with a no movement or no trade clause in their contract. Those players are Rick Nash, Derick Brassard, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Ryan McDonagh and Henrik Lundqvist. In two years (going into the 2017-2018 season) Derek Stepan will be added to that list.

Some people think that players with no movement/trade clauses will be eligible for the draft because otherwise, it is hard for teams to reach that 25% cap threshold while protecting all of those guys as well as it being hard for the expansion teams to reach the cap threshold otherwise. Others, including the New York Post’s Larry Brooks thinks that the NHL will indeed count the no movement players on the protected player list because of how much the league hates the concept of the no trade clause, which they now have an opportunity to use against the teams who constantly give them out.

Brooks points out the Blackhawks as one team that can really be hurt by this. If these are going to be the rules, the Blackhawks, as he points out, wouldn’t be able to comply with the rules because of the salaries of the NMC/NTC players on the roster (Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson and Crawford). Due to the 25% of the cap rule, they would have to leave Artem Anisimov susceptible to being drafted because of his salary ($4.55 million on the cap). Losing their second line center because of this potential rule could really hurt them.

Now let’s get down to business. I am going to propose the players the Rangers can/should/would protect for this upcoming expansion draft assuming that the draft will take place this offseason. I will do one assuming NMC/NTC players will be eligible for draft, and one assuming NMC/NTC players will occupy one of the protect spots.

2016 Expansion NMC/NTC Eligible

F Derek Stepan ($6.5 million through 2019-2020)

F Mats Zuccarello ($4.5 million through 2018-2019)

F Chris Kreider (RFA)

F Kevin Hayes (RFA)

F J.T. Miller (RFA)

F Rick Nash (NTC) ($7.8 million through 2017-2018)

D Ryan McDonagh (NTC) ($4.7 million through 2018-2019)

D Kevin Klein ($2.9 million through 2017-2018)

D Dylan McIlrath (RFA)

G Henrik Lundqvist ($8.5 million through 2020-2021)

Roughly $36.87 million dollars in salaries (assuming the RFA’s resign for what they are making this year, which they won’t)

Players left unprotected

Forwards: Tanner Glass ($1.45 million), Jesper Fast ($950,000), Oscar Lindberg ($650,000), Nicklas Jensen, Matt Lindblad, Marek Hrivik, Chris Brown, Jayson Megna

Defenseman: Dan Giradi ($5.5 million), Marc Staal ($5.7 million)

Goaltenders: None

UFAs (Not Eligible)- Eric Staal, Dan Boyle, Keith Yandle, Dominic Moore, Viktor Stalberg, Antti Raanta, Rapheal Diaz

The easy guy to leave off this list was Dan Girardi, who has a NMC till the end of the 2016-2017 season, and then a modified NMC till the end of his contract in 2019-2020. Girardi would almost definitely be taken because he still, regardless of his play this year, has a pretty good reputation around the league for being a shutdown guy who brings great leadership to the room. Plus his big cap hit of $5.5 million would definitely help an expansion team hit the cap floor. This would be a huge deal for the Rangers as they can unload that horrendous contract, and it gives another roster spot, along with the one Dan Boyle will leave since he is retiring, for Dylan McIlrath and Brady Skjei to have starting spots in the top 6.

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The difficult decision for me was whether to protect Rick Nash or Marc Staal. I ultimately went with Rick Nash for a couple of reasons. The first reason was because Nash’s contract is shorter by a couple of years, so it gives the Rangers some more flexibility. The other reason was if Staal was protected, that means McIlrath would almost certainly be drafted to an expansion team. The argument against this move would be losing Nash–who is as inconsistent as they come—over Staal would create another $2.1 million in cap space. The other reason would be defenseman usually have more trade value, so if the Rangers ended up wanting to deal Staal, they might be able to get more for him. I could be convinced either way, but I really like McIlrath, and I want the Rangers to protect him, even if it means losing Staal.

2016 Expansion Draft NMC/NTC guys have to be protected

F Rick Nash (NTC) ($7.8 million)

F Derick Brassard (NTC) ($5 million)

F Mats Zuccarello ($4.5 million)

F Chris Kreider (RFA)

F J.T. Miller (RFA)

F Kevin Hayes (RFA)

F Jesper Fast ($950,000)

D Ryan McDonagh (NTC) ($4.7 million)

D Dan Girardi (NMC) ($5.5 million)

D Marc Staal (NMC $5.7 million)

G Henrik Lundqvist (NMC) ($8.5 million)

Roughly $46.89 million dollars in salaries (assuming the RFA’s resign for what they are making this year, which they won’t)

Forwards: Derek Stepan ($6.5 million) Tanner Glass ($1.45 million), Jesper Fast ($950,000), Oscar Lindberg ($650,000), Nicklas Jensen, Matt Lindblad, Marek Hrivik, Chris Brown, Jayson Megna

Defenseman: Dylan McIlrath (RFA)

Goaltenders: None

UFAs (Not Eligible) – Eric Staal, Dan Boyle, Keith Yandle, Dominic Moore, Viktor Stalberg, Antti Raanta, Rapheal Diaz

This scenario could absolutely kill the Rangers for the next couple of years. Not only would this force the Rangers to keep all 3 of Girardi, Staal and Nash, but due to how the salaries would shake out, it would force the Rangers to leave Derek Stepan unprotected, which would pretty much guarantee his Rangers career is over. Also, this would leave Dylan McIlrath out to dry as well.

It is amazing to me how very different the two scenarios are for the Rangers. The first scenario could really help the team in the long run and could possibly extend the window to chase the cup. The second scenario could potentially close the window altogether. Losing Stepan for nothing and also potentially losing McIlrath is a nightmare scenario for the Rangers. Hopefully with all of this in mind, the Rangers brass will get a good jump on their roster before the decision to expand is officially made before the NHL entry draft in June and make some trades to rid themselves of bad contracts (Girardi, Nash, possibly Staal). Best case scenario for the Rangers is for the draft to be this year because if it is delayed just one more year, Brady Skjei will be eligible to be drafted.

Next: Zuccarello and Brassard Deals Paying Off

The Rangers’ management team has a lot to talk about, but one rule could ultimately change the course of the Rangers future plans. Adjust accordingly.