New York Rangers Playoff Possibilities
First place, not only in the division, but the overall conference, is out of the question and has been for some time. However, the New York Rangers could finally clinch their 10th straight ticket to the post-season, as long as they beat the Canes tonight in either regulation, or overtime. If the game goes to a shootout, they will still be without the oh so important checkmark next to their name that AV has the entire team chasing.
This prompts my “way too soon to speculate, but let’s do it anyway” attitude. Who would everyone rather see the New York Rangers play in the first round? There are a few options here, the Islanders, Penguins, and Flyers.
One of these three teams are most likely going to face the New York Rangers, hopefully in MSG, come the first game of the playoffs. So let’s dive in.
New York Rangers vs Pittsburgh Penguins
This would be a tough one, but if the regular season were to end today, this would be the matchup. The Penguins have had the Rangers number this season. They have won three of four games against the Rangers, with one of those wins coming in overtime.
Although the Rangers have been hot of late, 3-0-1 in their last four games, the Penguins are even hotter. Pittsburgh has won nine of their last ten games and will face off against the Nashville Predators tonight.
The Penguins beat the Predators 2-1 in overtime earlier this season and even though it was an ovetime win, it would be hard to bet against Pittsburgh tonight. The Predators have gone .500 over their last ten games, but they have played much better hockey. At one point in the season Nashville was first in the Central, but they seem to have exhausted their ability to win consistently.
New York Rangers vs New York Islanders
A battle between Brooklyn and Manhattan, what a first round. This series would be worth the guaranteed overpriced costs of admission.
In order for this to become reality the Rangers would need to stay put at second place and the Islanders would need to get out of the first Wild Card position. The Islanders are three points behind the Penguins and the hot streak they were on has come to an end.
The Islanders will most likely remain a wild card team. They have only won four of their last six games and their remaining schedule is tough. After tonights game against the Blue Jackets, the Islanders will be up against the Penguins, Lightning, Capitals, Rangers, Sabres and Flyers.
No way the Islanders end the regular season in third place. Their schedule is too hard and they have been riding a downward trend for sometime now. We can now assume it is safe to say the Rangers will not face the Islanders in round one of the post season.
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers
Currently the Flyers are clinging onto the final wild card position, but last night when they beat the Capitals in one of the most physical games I have watched, they did not look like a wild card team.
The Flyers have accumulated 89 points thus far and have won six of their last ten games. In order for the Flyers to face off with the Rangers in the first round they would need to surpass the Islanders and Penguins to jump up into third place. Is that possible? Absolutely.
The Flyers still have two games left against the Penguins and they will end the regular season in New York to take on the Islanders. The Flyers will also play the Maple Leafs, Senators and Red Wings before the season closes.
It may be a stretch, but it wouldn’t be impossible for the Flyers to win out. However, the Flyers do not even need all 12 possible points to swing into third place. If they beat the Penguins in each meeting and the Islanders lose two or three games, they would just need the Penguins to lose to either the Capitals, Predators or Senators.
The Penguins are hot and yes, they have won nine of their last ten games, but I do think they will lose at least one game heading into the playoffs against either the Capitals or maybe even the Predators tonight. If they were to lose to the Predators or Capitals and both games against the Flyers, the Penguins would end the season with 100 points.
If the Flyers can find a way to beat the Penguins twice and they win out, then they will end the season with 101 points.
I understand that this is a stretch, however crazier things have happened, i.e. 2005-2006 Detroit Red Wings who won an NHL record 23 games in a row, which included 12 road victories.
The New York Rangers vs Flyers/Penguins
Now that we have narrowed down the possibilities to the Flyers and Penguins, let’s take it a step further. Which first round matchup will benefit the Rangers the most?
To answer that question you need to ask another question: who has the best chance at beating, or physically exhausting the Washington Capitals?
The Capitals have split series with both the Flyers and Penguins thus far. The Penguins however, have one last game to play in D.C. The point differential when the Capitals have played the Penguins this season is +2 in the Penguins favor. Through the four games these teams have played the Penguins were able to outscore the Capitals 12 – 10.
Flyers vs Capitals
The Flyers, on the other hand, were outscored by the Capitals 12-10 over the course of this season. Both of the Flyers wins against the Capitals came in overtime and that does not bode well in a seven game series. Especially when you take into consideration special teams.
With a power play that is ranked 18th in the league, the Flyers score 18.1 percent of the time, while they kill 80.1 percent of man down situations. These are not strong enough statistics, especially when you account for how many penalty minutes the Flyers have recorded over the season and how well the Capitals play on special teams.
The Flyers have recorded 30 major penalties this season and a total of 924 penalty minutes, which places them at seventh most penalty minutes recorded this season. Washington, however, has only recorded 19 major penalties and 695 total penalty minutes this season.
To make matters worse, the Capitals have the second best special teams unit in the NHL. They have recorded 54 power play goals and score on 22.9 percent of man advantage opportunities.
The Flyers have almost no shot in a seven game series with the Capitals for the following reasons:
- The vast amount of penalty minutes the Flyers log
- The strength of the Capitals power play
- The Flyers inability to beat D.C. in regulation all year
Penguins vs Capitals
Sid the Kid vs The Great 8. As much as I respect each one of these players and the teams they play for, I hate them both and yes, I hate them because they are good. Now that my bias is out of the way, let’s compare their special teams.
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The Capitals stats have already been laid out, so here are the Penguins. Pittsburgh’s power play is actually ranked right below the Flyers. At 19th in the league, the Penguins score on 17.6 of man advantage opportunities, however, their kill is slightly better than the Flyers at 83.0.
What makes the Penguins a better pick to beat the Capitals is the fact that they have only recorded seven major penalties all year. The Penguins have also recored 300 less penalty minutes than the Flyers who are at 615.
One last stat to consider is overall scoring. Pittsburgh has scored 215 goals and has allowed 186. The Flyers have recorded a total of 195 goals, but have given up 192. That is a goal differential of -0.03! The Flyers won’t stand a chance against a Capitals team that has scored 233 goals this season while only allowing 175.
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New York Rangers Best Bet
For the reasons outlined above, the Rangers should pull for the Flyers and Islanders. This is hard for me to say, but if both teams can find a way to jump up a few spots in the division, then the Rangers path to the cup becomes as easy as humanly possible.
If the Rangers see themselves playing the Flyers in the first round, a team they have beat three out of five times this year, they have a shot at getting out of the divisional playoffs.
The Penguins can beat on the Capitals and if that ends up becoming the first round matchup it is almost guaranteed to go seven games. This will allow the Rangers to play (assuming they get to the second round) either an extremely battered Capital or Penguin unit and that is all we can hope for.