After a very disappointing season and an offseason filled with trade rumors, the New York Rangers hope that their star winger will find his game and get back on track this upcoming season.
Rick Nash had a very difficult season last year. The winger found himself in the press box for 22 games due to a deep bone bruise that continued to hamper him even after he initially came back. Nash’s name has been in trade rumors all offseason. Although it wasn’t confirmed one way or the other, it was widely rumored that the team asked Nash for his list of teams he would veto a trade to via his limited no-movement clause. Can the veteran forward, assuming he opens the season in a Rangers’ uniform get back on track?
2015-2016 Traditional Stats
Games Played: 60
Goals: 15
Assists: 21
Points: Â 36
Plus/Minus: 8
PP: 4
TOI: 16:56
Previous Role: First Line Winger
Season in Review
After a 2014-2015 season that saw Rick Nash post his best numbers in a New York Rangers’ uniform, including 42 regular season goals along with 14 points in 19 playoff games, the 6’4″ winger’s numbers fell off real quick. Nash’s struggles could be attributed to his deep bone bruise in his left leg that kept him out of the lineup for about a month. It also didn’t help that Nash had the worst shooting percentage he has ever had in his career (8.2) which was down by over 5.5% from the 14-15 season (13.8%).
Despite being snakebitten, Nash was doing a fantastic job when he was away from the puck. Nash was one of the Rangers best defensive forwards last year, continuing to see time on the team’s top penalty killing unit with Derek Stepan.
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Nash’s fancy stats say that he was slightly less productive than he was during his time on the ice than he was the year before, despite scoring 27 less goals, which doesn’t quite make sense–another reason that despite advanced hockey analytics being a really good tool to measure a player’s ability, I don’t think it is always perfect.
The one area of Rick Nash’s hero chart that was a lot different than his advanced analytics from the year before (which you can view here) is his CA/60 and CD/60. Basically, the poor CA/60 means that the team gave up a lot more shots when he was on the ice per 60 minutes than they did when he was off the ice per 60 minutes. Think of CD/60 as a shot differential version of +/-, where Nash had an output of what a bottom tier 2nd line center would give you in that role.
Like I said earlier, some of this could be because of the bone bruise, which left Nash to play at less than 100% even when he finally came back from injury.
2016-2017 Projected Stats
Games Played: 74
Goals: 26
Assists: 31
Points: 57
+/-: 12
PP: 5
TOI: 16:54
Expected Role: Top Six Winger
Reasoning: I think after a long offseason to rest up and get into tip-top shape, Rick Nash can get back into form and have a big bounce back for his Rangers team. I don’t think at this point that Nash will get traded, and if he does, that will be at the trade deadline, even with all the trade rumors surrounding a potential trade with the Blues for New York Native Kevin Shattenkirk.
Nash will have a role of the Rangers’ first line, but the team won’t need for him to score 35-40 goals this year like in season’s past due to all the depth the team has brought in this offseason, so that’s why I listed him simply as a top six winger.
Just like many other Rangers have mentioned this offseason, the team will go into the season with a chip on their shoulders. This past season was, by all accounts, Nash’s worst in the NHL. He had never had a season with under 17 goals and he only had under 66 games played once before, not counting the lockout year. I think–and hope–he will be motivated to come back and produce for the Rangers.
One area where I think the Rangers will change Nash’s deployment is on the penalty kill. Nash received 78:41 on the penalty kill last season, which ranked 7th on the team. I wrote about how I think the Rangers should not use Nash on the penalty kill even though he did a very good job while shorthanded last season, basically to just keep him fresh and give him more ice time at even strength.
The fact of the matter is with Nash, nobody cares about what he does in the regular season. Rangers fan’s view on Nash will only be affected by his playoff performance. Even though many people think that the Rangers will take a step backward this season, they will still be a consensus pick to make the playoffs.
As for the trade stuff, I am kind of happy the Rangers didn’t trade him this offseason, even though I was originally an advocate for doing so. As it turned out, Nash’s trade value is at an all-time low and the Rangers were getting offers that they simply could not accept. Nash has the potential to be a 30+ goal scorer, so you can’t trade him for pennies.
I expect Nash to bounce back, just because I don’t think he could be any more snake bitten and I think his shooting percentage will regress close to what it has been in the past, so his trade value should be much improved at the deadline, especially if the Rangers decide to hold part of his cap hit for the remaining 2 seasons on his contract.
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Part of me, however, does find it hard to believe that the Rangers would move him if he was putting up his usual numbers mid-season, but I guess we will find out in the next few months.
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