New York Rangers: Temper Your Expectations for Jimmy Vesey

Jimmy Vesey was the new toy on the block, and everyone wanted him, even the team that usually shops for antiques.

On Friday, the New York Rangers signed the former Harvard hockey star to a 2-year entry level contract. A team that usually trades it’s draft picks to acquire established NHL veterans like the Rangers have done for most of the past two decades–or some might even say 90 years–needs to find a way to get creative with their prospects, and signing guys like Kevin Hayes and now Vesey, two players who didn’t sign with the teams they were drafted by in order to put themselves in the best situation possible definitely helps.

While Vesey is a high caliber prospect, that doesn’t mean he is going to immediately come in and make it big in the league, and I think that is something a lot of Rangers fans are missing.

In a conversation with a friend of mine who is also a big Rangers fan, I had asked him what he expects Vesey to do next year. He told me “50 points”. Usually, I think he really does know what he is talking about, and he generally is kind of on the ball, but I was instantly turned off when he said that number.

Look, of course I would love it if Vesey were to come right out of the gate scoring 50 points a season, but that is so highly unlikely.

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Last year, in what was one of the best rookie classes I can remember in the past 10 years, only 3 players recorded 50 points or more (Artemi Panarin, Jack Eichel, and Max Domi).

Vesey is a phenomenal player, and hopefully one day he can reach that mark–and I think in a few years, he might based on his potential and apparent IQ being that he is from Harvard–but to think that he will score that many points without ever seeing him in an NHL game is crazy.

I see a lot of people on Twitter saying that since he is a Hobby Baker award-winning player, he will make it in the NHL. Playing in the NHL and making it in the NHL are two completely different things, and at the end of the day, the Hobby Baker Award means very little. In fact, there are 5 players who have played for the Rangers that had won the Hobby Baker Award, and only two of them–Chris Drury and George McPhee–had long and productive NHL careers (the other 3 were Matt Gilroy, Stefan Matteau, and Jason Krog).

So what is the most realistic expectation to have for him right now?

Well firstly, let’s look at the team’s potential forward lines for next season.

Kreider-Stepan-Miller

Nash-ZIbanejad-Zuccarello

Vesey-Hayes-Buchnevich

Grabner-Gerbe-Fast

Seeing as how Vesey will most likely be on a line with a lot of other young, but immensely skilled players in Hayes and Buchnevich, it is very likely that while they will show flashes of brilliance from time to time, there will definitely be some growing pains. Based on that line combination and the fact that it will be thought of as the 3rd line, Vesey and his linemates definitely won’t get the ice time necessary to generate “50 point” production.

Another good tool to use when projecting Vesey’s future rookie year production is to compare his production to that of players that Alain Vigneault has coached during his New York tenure.

Kevin Hayes’ rookie year was phenomenal. The hulking center tallied 45 points, including 17 goals. I think that is probably going to be the best case scenario for Vesey this season. Chris Kreider‘s first full year under Vigneault saw him notching 37 points including 17 goals as well. The there was J.T. Miller, who took a while to gain Vigneault’s trust (it took parts of 3 seasons). Miller scored 29 points in his first 88 games under Alain Vigneault, before scoring 43 points last year in what was finally his first breakout year in the NHL.

This is what Hockey’s Future had to say about Vesey’s skillset:

Vesey is a big winger who is a skilled passer and sees the game well. He is more than just an up-and-down player as he possesses skill and smarts that make him a dangerous player in the offensive zone. Vesey does not shy away from the physical game but could be more active in that area. His defensive zone coverage is inconsistent at times.

Vesey sounds a lot like J.T. Miller in this excerpt. A big winger, skilled passer, doesn’t shy away from physical play and is inconsistent in the defensive zone. Unless Alain Vigneault decides to change his approach in developing younger players, Vesey could find himself in a very similar situation to what Miller found himself in for 2 seasons: the A.V. doghouse.

My prediction for Vesey is that he tallies in between 30-35 points this season. I think Alain Vigneault gives him a bit more of a leash than he gave Miller over the past few years. On a side note, I also think Kevin Hayes is going to breakout this year. He had a very rough season in 2015-2016, but I think it was more of a case of a sophomore slump than anything else.

Next: New York Rangers: A Trade is Brewing....

Vesey is not the “savior” of the New York Rangers, which he warned Rangers fans in an interview last week, but signing him was very important, and I think it makes the team a whole lot better than they’d be without him. Just don’t get your hopes up too high and set unrealistic expectations for 23-year-old.

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