With the New York Rangers matchup with the Montreal Canadiens officially set, Blue Line Station will be digging deep and analyzing the first round tussle from all sorts of angles. Today, we compare Canadiens’ winger Paul Byron with the Rangers’ Micheal Grabner. The speedy wingers have gone from undervalued players to key contributors. Let’s take a look.
When you have a few star players eating up a big chunk of your salary cap, teams need to find contributors at the fringes for modest salaries. The New York Rangers and the Canadiens found bargains in Paul Byron and Michael Grabner. Both players have emerged as key players for their respective teams.
The Habs Nab “Breakaway” Byron
The Canadiens picked up winger Paul Byron off waivers from Calgary before the 2015-16 season. Byron had a fairly unremarkable start to his career to that point with 17 goals in three plus seasons.
The wrap on Byron was that he had excellent speed, but lacked the ability to finish. It was widely reported that a video of failed Byron breakaways motivated Montreal to claim him as they were impressed by his speed.
Rangers Sign the Austrian
The above description of Byron might sound familiar to Ranger fans. Michael Grabner had a similar reputation when he was signed for a bargain price ahead of the 2016-17 season.
Grabner is older and the more accomplished NHL player, scoring 34 goals for the Islanders in 2010-11. But his production and playing time had been on the decline. The Rangers didn’t think they were getting a 25 goal scorer, but they liked his speed and thought he could help on the penalty kill.
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Outperforming Expectations
Byron became a staple on the PK for the Canadiens in his first season, scoring three short-handed goals. He finished the season with a career high 11. This season he has doubled that with 22 goals to go along with 41 points. Byron has become a fan favorite.
In his first 20 games as a Ranger, Grabner scored 12 goals. He is a key penalty killer and is second on the Rangers in goals with 27.
Grabner is tied for fourth in the league in even strength goals with 26. His resurgence and reasonable price tag have led to speculation that he might be a target in the expansion draft.
A Look at the Stats
Their statistics show that Byron clearly has the better possession numbers. However, Grabner has often played on a line with Kevin Hayes and JT Miller. We know that line has had poor possession numbers and thrives on the quick counter attack.
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When you dig a little deeper, you see a striking similarity in their advanced shooting percentage stats. Their CSv% (percentage of shots taken against a team that are saves) and FSv% (the percentage of unblocked shots against a team that are saves) are nearly identical.
Grabner: CSv% 96.81, FSv% 95.54
Byron: CSv% 96.66, FSv% 95.41
Another similar stat is the SCF60 (scoring changes per 60 minutes of ice time), both players are over nine. Both players get a lot of scoring chances and have been cashing in at a high rate.
Only TJ Oshie has a higher shooting percentage than Byron’s 23.4%. Grabner has fallen to fourteenth in the league at 16.9%.
Related Story: Grabner Still a Threat Despite Goal Drought
The Pendulum Swings Back
As we’re so often reminded, high shooting percentages don’t last. Grabner has been ice cold of late, with only one goal in his last twenty games. He has been getting plenty of chances, including a two on none with Kevin Klein in overtime against the Penguins, but he has not been finding the back of the net.
Byron might be showing signs of cooling off as well. He did score two in the playoff clinching win against Florida on March 30th, but those were his only two goals in the last seven games. The Rangers hope a reversion to the mean has begun.
Final Thoughts
Paul Byron and Michael Grabner were similarly overlooked players acquired by their teams at a bargain price. Both have excellent speed and have ascended to key roles.
Next: Removing Mark Staal's Free Pass
The two wingers have the ability to be major factors in the series. The Rangers will look to limit Byron’s chances and hope he doesn’t continue to convert at such a high rate. Grabner needs to find his scoring touch again before it’s too late.