The Rangers and Canadiens have skilled players on their top lines. But the Canadiens are top heavy and mainly rely on two lines for offense. The Rangers boast four lines of capable forwards who can light the lamp. They’ll need to take advantage by getting production from their third and fourth lines. Exploiting this advantage in the bottom six could be the key to winning the series.
Much has been made of the Canadiens’ toughness advantage over the Rangers. They also enjoy a big advantage on defense, and an edge in goaltending, at this point in Henrik Lundqvist’s career. The one area where the Rangers have the edge is in the forwards, particularly on the back end.
Rangers’ Forward Depth
Chris Kreider, the Rangers’ top goal scorer, is not in the top 30 in the league. However, they have eight forwards with at least fifteen goals. They will try use their team speed and depth to outskate the Canadiens and generate scoring opportunities.
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The third lines on both teams are talented but inconsistent. The Rangers have mostly used a third line of Michael Grabner, Kevin Hayes, and JT Miller, but that has been a poor puck possession group.
In spite of low possession stats, the line was able to generate over 10 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice time. Grabner’s speed and daring cross-ice passes by Miller and Hayes create opportunities in transition. But they also gave up close to ten scoring chances per game. This is a high risk high reward line.
Many expected Alain Vigneault to elevate Miller to the second line and replace him with Jesper Fast to try to minimize risk against the defensive minded Canadiens. But this does not appear to be the case in game one. Look for Vigneault to break up this line if things do not go well.
Changes to the Canadiens’ Bottom Six
The Canadiens mainly used three lines and a more traditional checking fourth line. They will tactically deploy the fourth line to try to batter and intimidate the Rangers, and neutralize the speed edge.
Montréal’s third line has been Alex Galchenyuk, Andrew Shaw, and Artturi Lehkonen. But it looks like Galchenyuk, the skilled but underacheiving winger, will be skating on the fourth line with Steve Ott and Andreas Martinsen.
This is an interesting development as Galchenyuk had been the team’s top line center to start the season and now is all the way down on the fourth line. The line played together in the team’s final game and Claude Julien liked what he saw.
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Dwight King, known as more of a grinder/penalty killer type, replaces Galchenyuk on the third line. He will be joining Shaw, the undersized, but hard nosed center, and Lehkonen, the Finnish rookie who scored four goals in the team’s last four games.
The Shaw line had impressive possession numbers with Galchenyuk but generated fewer scoring chances than the Hayes line. Where the trio shined was scoring chances against, where they gave up fewer than six per 60 minutes. With King, possession will suffer and this line becomes less dangerous.
The Canadiens recent fourth line of Ott, King, and Martinsen did not generate much offense and their puck possession was abysmal. They were in there to hit, the only thing they do well. With Galchenyuk on the fourth line, both lines are more balanced but neither presents much of an offensive threat.
Rangers’ Fourth Line
Pavel Buchnevich has shown flashes of brilliance and has played well of late. But as expected, Vigneault opted for the brawn of Tanner Glass over the talent of Buchnevich.
Ranger Nation has been lamenting the possible inclusion of Glass in the playoff lineup ever since he was called up from Hartford. Consider me among the lamenting.
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Rangers’ Toughness
But while I don’t agree with dressing Glass, it’s not hard to see why Vigneault made the choice. The Rangers were pushed around in the last matchup between the teams. If Shaw takes another run at Fast, who is left to keep him in line if not Glass? Unrequited punishment on the Ranger forwards is a recipe for trouble.
The two hit leaders on the Rangers were Nick Holden and Brady Skjei. Only two forwards, Kreider and Miller, were credited with over 100 hits. The Rangers don’t have much in the way of beef.
Still, the Rangers should have tried to make the Canadiens play their game. With Buchnevich in the lineup, the Habs’ D would be faced with a scoring threat on every shift. This would likely wear them down over the course of the series.
Tanner Glass does not do enough to counter the Canadiens’ toughness edge to warrant his inclusion. If the series does not start well, Vigneault should insert the talented Russian. The Rangers should try to catch lighting in a bottle with Buchnevich, as they did with Chris Kreider in the 2012 playoffs. Instead, they’ll go with the plodding Glass.
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Final Thoughts
The Rangers have a clear talent advantage in the bottom six. This advantage is mitigated with Tanner Glass in the lineup but they still have the edge. The Canadiens reshuffled lines seem to make them offensively weaker and the Rangers must exploit the immobile underbelly of the Canadiens’ forwards to advance.