New York Rangers: Kevin Hayes is the second line center of the future

The New York Rangers are still trying to figure out Kevin Hayes, and coach Alain Vigneault hasn’t helped.

With the departure of Derek Stepan via trade, the center position is fraught with questions for the New York Rangers. As things stand at the beginning of August, Kevin Hayes is likely to skate as the second-line center this coming season.

Two years ago, after a sparkling rookie campaign, this news would probably have been very welcome. Instead, Hayes now has three professional years under his belt, and that time has just clouded his outlook.

So we sit in the summer of 2017, and Hayes has three wildly differing season performances thus far.

As mentioned, his rookie year was impressive, earning the third-line center role after being stuck on a line with Tanner Glass for stretches. The next season, Hayes regressed and found himself in the press box during a playoff elimination game.

This past year, much was made of Hayes’ reduced weight; he set a career-high in points, but tailed off late in the season.

So which Hayes is the real one? Is he really suited for the second-line role? Or should the Rangers trade for a center?

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Set up to fail

Hayes joined the New York Rangers with a bang. His rookie season saw him tie with the likes of Joe Thornton and Tyler Seguin for first in the league in primary assists. Despite receiving limited power play time and spending a good portion of the early season on the fourth line, Hayes finished with 45 points in 2014-15.

Unfortunately for Hayes, however, his coach is Alain Vigneault. Notorious for his handling of young, talented players, Vigneault has made a series of questionable calls with his deployment of Hayes.

First, it was fourth-line minutes with Tanner Glass. Then, it was scratching him in a must-win playoff game. Most recently, it was deployment in heavy defensive minutes on a line with J.T. Miller and Michael Grabner.

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Turning the page?

While the Grabner-Hayes-Miller line was undoubtedly offensively dangerous for the New York Rangers, the trio was inefficient in their own zone. They scored a lot off the rush, but didn’t get sustained time in the offensive zone.

Own The Puck’s HERO charts give us a good look at Hayes’ career so far. He’s traditionally played on the third line, and this past season didn’t help his possession numbers.

The result was poor shot suppression and, especially, poor shot generation for Hayes. As a player with the kind of skillset Hayes has, that’s not a good look.

Just about the only good thing they had going for them was a line-wide, sky-high shooting percentage. While that may be a good thing taken in a microcosm, it’s worrying, too. Shooting percentages tend to come crashing back down for players not named Steven Stamkos or Alex Tanguay.

Miller, for instance, isn’t likely to keep shooting 17% (his career average is 13.2%).

So while Hayes saw an increase in scoring, the underlying numbers are worrying, especially in harder defensive deployment. If he’s to take over as second-line center, Hayes will need to pick up his game at both ends of the rink.

One glimmer of hope does shine, though. While Hayes did have some of the worst possession metrics among Rangers forwards, the team struggled across the board.

Much of that was due to the way lines and defensive pairs were deployed. On top of that, the tremendous turnover on defense should point to a more potent transition game next season, which should play to Hayes’ strengths.

With Hayes as the second-line center, the Rangers might not be as bad off as presumed. If Vigneault gives Hayes wingers who can help drive play (see: Rick Nash), his underlying numbers should go up.

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His boxscore stats already look good, and with more consistent play from the defense to go with more quality wingers, it’s not out of the question for Hayes to sniff 60 points next season.