The Rangers still have some offseason work to do, but most of their 2017-18 roster is in place. More than half the team’s forwards only have contracts through this season, though. Scoring winger Rick Nash leads the group of pending free agents.
While some Ranger fans point to Nash’s well-publicized playoff struggles as reason to let him walk, they might miss him if he wears a different jersey after this season. Nash’s 127 goals since donning a blueshirt lead the team by a substantial margin. The recently traded Derek Stepan has the second most goals over that period with 90.
The 33-year-old Nash would have to take a pay cut to stay in New York. He’s entering the final year of a contract from his Columbus days which carries a $7.8 million cap hit. Nash likely knows this though.
If Nash wants to stay, general manager Jeff Gorton should get to work on an extension. Here’s why.
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Nash-ing the numbers
Those 127 goals for Nash over the last five seasons rank 18th in the entire NHL. Of that total, 96 came at even strength, good for 14th in the league. The next closest current Ranger, Chris Kreider, grades 75th and 62nd on those lists respectively.
New York’s veteran power forward fares even better on a per minute basis. As a Ranger, he scores 1.30 goals for every 60 minutes of ice time played. That puts Nash eighth in the NHL, ahead of Sidney Crosby, Tyler Seguin, and John Tavares.
Besides putting pucks in the net at an elite rate, Nash does an excellent job driving the play. When Nash hits the ice at even strength, the Rangers manage roughly 51 percent of shot attempts. That number drops by 1.6 percent when he returns to the bench.
Nash’s production could decline in the next few years as he exits his prime. That said, even a somewhat diminished version of Rick Nash is extremely valuable.
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Cap crunch
The biggest obstacle to a Nash extension has little to do with him. Brady Skjei, J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes, and Jimmy Vesey all become restricted free agents next summer. Additionally, Michael Grabner will be an unrestricted free agent.
The Rangers already have $51.6 million committed to 11 players for 2018-19. If the cap doesn’t increase from $75 million, the Rangers will need to find a way to fit in Nash, give raises to their restricted free agents, and make improvements with only $23.3 million in space. Skjei, Miller, and Hayes alone could command around $12-15 million of cap room.
On the other hand, Gorton could make breathing room for himself by removing some or all of Marc Staal’s $5.7 million hit from New York’s books. While trading Staal could prove difficult, even buying him out next summer creates over $3.6 million in space.
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Cash for Nash
If Rick Nash demands anything close to or above $6 million per year, the Rangers won’t have the cap space to keep him. If he prioritizes remaining a Ranger, however, the front office can find a way to make room for him. A four year deal in the $5-5.5 million per year range makes sense for both sides.
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It’s unclear what New York’s plans are for Nash. The Ranger front office almost never leaks information leading up to a move. It’s transparent, however, that if Nash goes, a massive chunk of the Ranger offense goes with him.