New York Rangers: Five stats that need improvement for 2017-18
The New York Rangers look poised for another playoff berth and shot at the Stanley Cup. However, from a numbers standpoint, there are a few areas that they should address.
The New York Rangers’ roster appears to mostly be set at this point in the offseason. Although there are doubts about the team’s center depth, they appear to be a playoff contender. However, for the team to be considered true Stanley Cup contenders there are areas they must improve in.
Statistics can tell you a lot about a team and its players. Not only just about the things that they’ve done, but how they were utilized, and what future results may be expected. Statistics, especially in a chaotic sport such as hockey, are not a be-all, end-all authority, but are important nonetheless.
We will take a few individual and team based statistics, both “advanced” and mundane. We’ll use them to look at how the Rangers fared last season and why they need improvement.
1. Shot Attempts %
Shot attempts, also known as Corsi, is the count of all shots on net, missed shots and blocked shots generated by a team. It is broken up into attempts for and against a team and often also represented as percentage of the total amount of shot attempts. Therefore, shots attempts for percentage would be number of shot attempts for a team (on the opposition’s net) over the total amount of shot attempts in that time frame.
This type of metric is used as a proxy for puck possession, shots for percentage, and unblocked shots (shots on net and blocked shots) for percentage at 5-on-5 has been a good predictor for playoff success.
The Rangers ended last season with a shot attempts for % (SAT%) aka Corsi For % (CF%) of 47.95% (courtesy of NaturalStatTrick). This was the lowest mark among all playoff teams.
The Rangers have not been a possession positive (i.e. greater than 50%) team since 2013-14, coincidentally the year they made the Stanley Cup Final.
It what will be a running theme for this article, the addition of Kevin Shattenkirk should greatly help in this department. Especially since the player he will be replacing is Dan Girardi.
The Rangers top pair a year ago and today pic.twitter.com/ttvvZcb9sL
— Kevin (@Kpower90) July 2, 2017
This, coupled with the departure of Kevin Klein and a full year of Brendan Smith, should put the Rangers on the right track in the possession department.
2. Playoff Powerplay %
Despite how inept the Rangers’ powerplay looked at times throughout the regular season, it was above average. The team actually finished with a powerplay conversion rate of 20.2%, tied for 11th in the NHL.
Then in the playoffs, their ineptitude on the man advantage was on full display. The team converted on a mere 7.7% of their powerplays. Only the St. Louis Blues, who were similarly eliminated in the second round, had a worse mark at 6.7%.
To be fair, a good powerplay is not a cure-all, nor a guarantee of playoff or even regular season success. The Chicago Blackhawks converted on 22.2% of their chances in the postseason, yet were eliminated in four games.
However, there were numerous times where the Rangers could have won, evened up a game or added insurance on the powerplay this postseason. In the end, it may not have made much of a difference in the Rangers’ ultimate playoff fate. But, for argument’s sake, a goal on the powerplay in overtime in Game Two against Ottawa sends them back to Madison Square Garden tied at one game apiece instead of being in a 2-0 series deficit.
Again, the addition of Shattenkirk here is key. A noted powerplay specialist, the Rangers will need Shattenkirk to perform on the man advantage so that they can rely on it in a pinch. The Rangers will have the entire regular season to get their new-look powerplay up to speed, and they will need it for a long playoff run.
3. Ryan McDonagh’s ice time
Ryan McDonagh led all Rangers skaters in time on ice per game (TOI/gm) in the regular season (24:21) and in the playoffs (27:20). This is because McDonagh can and will do it all for the Rangers, playing 5-on-5, on the powerplay and on the penalty kill.
The reduction in McDonagh’s minutes isn’t out of necessity, like reducing the number of games that Henrik Lundqvist starts is. However, it is important because of the implication of what McDonagh having fewer minutes means.
First, it will mean he is playing less minutes on the powerplay due to the presence of Shattenkirk on the team’s top unit. It will also mean that he is playing less minutes at even strength and on the powerplay because the unit of Brendan Smith and Brady Skjei is being trusted more instead of being lost in the shuffle. Finally, it will mean that whoever makes the Rangers third pair are similarly able to handle their responsibilities.
Although the reduction isn’t essential, as the team does not expect their captain to play around 30 minutes per night ala Ryan Suter. However, McDonagh is aging and as seen this postseason, will need his strength and stamina when he is called upon more in the playoffs.
The Rangers deployed their defenseman fairly evenly last season, sometimes even when it wasn’t warranted. Their ability to do so, to an even greater extent, next season should hopefully reflect on the strength of a top-four unit that is one of the best in the league.
4. Individual goal and point leaders
The Rangers did not have a 60 point scorer nor a 30 goal scorer last season. They were the only team in the playoff field that did not have one, the other, or both.
In the points department, Mat Zuccarello led the team with 59 points, while Kredier paced the goal scorers with 28 tallies.
The hallmark of the Rangers’ offense the past few years has been their balanced attack without necessarily having one game-breaker. This balance was seen in the playoffs as well, where seven players had either three or four goals.
This type of offense is a double-edged sword however. On one hand, there is no one line or player for the opponent to focus their best defensive players on. On the other hand, if everyone goes cold, there is no one that the team can rely on to step up.
The team still lacks that go-to, elite talent that is often needed sooner or later. The Rangers lost three games in this year’s playoffs in overtime. These are instances where one player making a next level play could have really made a difference.
5. Henrik Lundqvist shutouts
Henrik Lundqvist only posted two shutouts in 55 starts last season. This was his lowest amount in a full season since his rookie season. Much like McDonagh’s ice time, this isn’t so much a necessity as an indicator of other things going right.
Last season, the team too often let up too many scoring chances and shot attempts against. Also there were numerous ill-advised decisions leading to screens, odd-man rushes and deflections on net. It is difficult for anyone to post a shutout under those conditions.
Lundqvist also had the worst statistical season of his NHL career and often looked like he was forcing his game too much instead of letting it come to him.
Fortunately, he rounded into form during the playoffs. He kicked off the postseason with a shutout in Montreal and went on to post a robust 0.927 save percentage.
Lundqvist’s shutouts aren’t essential to team success or even to winning a Stanley Cup. However, knowing that you have a goalie who can steal a game when the chips are down is a comfort that many teams don’t have. Similarly, they will help to bolster Lundqvist’s own confidence in his game as he continues to face questions due to his age.
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Furthermore, shutouts are also as much an indicator of team defensive strength as goaltending acumen. If Lundqvist sees an uptick in his shutouts next season, he will rightfully earn credit for bouncing back. However, it cannot be understated how a vastly improved defense will help him to return to his world-beating form. He needs to be that player who will put the team on his back in order for the Rangers to be a serious threat for the Stanley Cup.