No one knows what to expect as defenseman Anthony DeAngelo begins his first New York Rangers training camp. DeAngelo could give the Rangers a huge third pairing weapon if he overcomes his defensive struggles. Let’s look at some possible outcomes.
Though Anthony DeAngelo isn’t a finished product, offense will always be his calling card. His ability to pot big point totals brought him to the NHL. It’s silly to expect him to turn into a lock-down defender.
While his own zone play probably never catches up to his scoring, it does need to improve. If he can bring his defense anywhere near to average, the pluses will outweigh the minuses for him.
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The ghost of Rangers past
DeAngelo isn’t the first New York blueliner to face scrutiny for his defensive flaws. In fact, the most recent right-shooting, young, offensive defenseman in Rangers history helped lead them to a Stanley Cup. Sergei Zubov played a huge role in ending the longest Stanley Cup drought in NHL history.
Of course, then the Rangers gave up on him anyway.
It goes without saying that DeAngelo isn’t Sergei Zubov, at least not yet, but it’s worth remembering the criticisms Zubov faced. Just a year after the ’94 Stanley Cup, it only took one bad series against a physically imposing Flyers team send Zubov out of New York.
"The deal is also a show of support by [Neil] Smith for Colin Campbell, who will begin his second year as head coach. Last season, when the Rangers slumped from championship status to mediocrity, Campbell was harshly critical of both Nedved and Zubov.…Zubov, a 25-year-old defenseman who totaled 36 points in 38 games, was frequently faulted for poor positional play and risky decisions."
Zubov went on to play another 13 seasons in a borderline Hall of Fame career, which included a second ring. Meanwhile, his departure helped key New York’s fall into the dark ages of seven seasons with no playoffs.
Interestingly, Zubov developed a strong defensive reputation as his career went on. It’s unclear though if his game actually changed or if opinions just softened on him as he reached veteran status.
In either case, Zubov represents one of the brightest outcomes for DeAngelo. Zubov played his rookie year at age 22. DeAngelo turns 22 next month.
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Taking the Josi turnpike
Defenseman Roman Josi of the Predators offers another parallel for DeAngelo. Like DeAngelo, Josi is an offense first defender who struggled early in his career. Also, both players entered the league at age 21.
The numbers for Josi’s first few seasons track closely to those for DeAngelo. Here’s statistician Domenic Galamini’s HERO chart for Josi and DeAngelo.
HERO stands for Horizontal Evaluative Rankings Optic, but these charts just rank skaters’ even strength play in a few categories for easy comparison: Shot suppression (preventing shot attempts against), shot generation (creating shot attempts for), goals, first assists, and ice time.
Take a look at the trend lines for Josi at the bottom of the graphic. The first few seasons of Josi’s career closely match DeAngelo’s rookie year. Josi posted a fair amount of points, however, he also surrendered an extremely high volume of shots.
After a few years though, Josi’s play improved. He still only ranks in the 20th percentile for shot suppression, but that’s much better than where he started. Slight defensive gains combined with his growth into an elite scorer to make him a top-pairing blue liner despite his shortcomings.
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DeAngelo has a long way to go before reaching Josi’s level. But Josi’s career arc shows the potential payout for sticking with DeAngelo if he struggles this year.