New York Rangers: Comparing starting slumps, 2013-14 vs today
This start to the New York Rangers’ season has been abysmal. However, one doesn’t need to look too far back for another Rangers team that had such a disastrous start.
After 10 games, the New York Rangers hold a measly 2-6-2 record (six points). The team is last in the Metropolitan Division. Their wins have been ugly, their losses uglier.
A team that is supposed to at least be a lock for the playoffs is now in danger of missing the postseason. However, as unexpected and disheartening this current run of games is, the Rangers have gone down this road before.
Going into the 2013-14 season, the Rangers were coming off of a disappointing end to their season, a resounding loss to the Boston Bruins in the second round. The core of the team had made the Eastern Conference Final the season before so this early exit was a setback.
Then-General Manager Glen Sather had decided he had seen enough of Head Coach John Tortorella and replaced him with current head coach, Alain Vigneault.
With minor tweaks to the roster, the team was again set to contend. Then they stumbled out of the gate. Through the first nine games of the 2013-14 season, the Rangers owned a 3-6-0 record (six points), tied for last in the Metropolitan Division.
Yes, the Rangers team that most recently played in the Stanley Cup Final began the year in a remarkably similar fashion.
Shaky starts four years apart
Given how the 2013-14 season ended, it is easy to forget how much of fiasco the beginning was.
The Rangers dropped their opener to a draft lottery-bound team, the Arizona Coyotes. Then a few games later, they were humiliated by the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks to the tune of two goals for and 15 against. Many remember the Sharks game as the one where Tomas Hertl sent Martin Biron permanently to the broadcasters’ booth.
Games did not improve much from there. The Rangers bottomed out at 2-6-0 after eight games following a one goal loss to a rival, the Philadelphia Flyers.
Looking at the start of this season, there are a few similarities. The team was coming off a disappointing second round playoff loss. They then have an opening night loss to a lottery bound team, this time the Colorado Avalanche. The team (hopefully) bottomed out after eight games (1-5-2) following a one goal loss to a rival, the New York Islanders.
Then, as now, Vigneault was the head coach. He was in no danger of being let go since it was his first year with the team. Now, four years later, Vigneault is no longer untouchable.
Differing circumstances
The start to 2013-14 was uglier, at least on the score sheet, if not the ice. Through nine games, the Rangers lost by three or more goals four times and were shut out twice. This season, the Rangers only lost by three or more goals twice (the 8-5 shootout with Toronto and the 4-1 loss to the Sharks) and have yet to be shut out.
Perhaps the biggest difference between the two seasons has been the venues. Due to renovations to Madison Square Garden, the Rangers played their first nine games and ten out of twelve games in October, on the road. This season is the polar opposite. The Rangers have played seven out of nine games at home and will play ten out of thirteen games there in October.
In 2013-14, their slow start could be excused somewhat because they started the season on the road, in a different timezone and under a new head coach with a new system.
The eventual Cup Finalists of four years ago were well balanced, albeit without a game-breaker. The difference between that team and this team is that they had much better center depth. However this season, the team has a more offensively inclined blue line.
Given that the Rangers have climbed out of a similar hole in years past, there is hope for this season’s edition. However, they will need to right the ship, fast.
Scary Month of October
As Yogi Berra once said, “It gets late early”. A 2-5-2 stretch at any point during a season seems like it isn’t a death sentence. However, there is evidence that it just may be, when it comes at the beginning of a season.
As it is often referenced around this time of year, back in that same 2013 Elliotte Friedman noted that:
Just three of 32 NHL teams at least four points out of a playoff spot on Nov. 1 recovered to make the playoffs from 2005-06 to 2011-12
Since then, from 2013-14 through 2016-17, only the Philadelphia Flyers in 2013-14, and Anaheim Ducks in 2015-16 have made the cut.
In 2013-14, the Rangers ended October with a 5-7-0 record. However, owing to a similarly mediocre Metropolitan Division, the Rangers were only one point out of a playoff spot.
Currently, the Rangers’ six points leaves them three points back of the Detroit Red Wings. The Wings currently hold the second Eastern Conference Wild Card spot.
Despite their slow start, we know what happened to the 2013-14 team. For the rest of the year, the team compiled a 40-24-6 record. That vaulted them to second in the Metropolitan Division.
This season looks more dangerous.
Even if the Red Wings go .500 to finish October, their 16 points would require the Rangers to gain seven more points over the next four games.
That doesn’t mean that the Rangers couldn’t be the exception to the rule if that doesn’t happen. However, either way, the team has a tall task in front of them.
A Statistical View
Digging a little deeper into some advanced statistics can help us try to forecast the Rangers’ chances at reversing their fortunes.
Through their first nine games in 2013-14, the Rangers had a Shot Attempts (aka Corsi) For% (CF%) of 49.47%, Scoring Chances For% (SCF%) of 47.97% and a PDO (Shooting % + Save %) of 0.931 (SH% = 3.48%, SV% = 89.66).
Comparing that to this season, the Rangers have a CF% of 47.56%, SCF% of 45.81% and a PDO (Shooting % + Save %) of 0.979 (SH% = 6.50%, SV% = 91.43).
Here is where there might be cause for concern. The team of yesteryear had passable, albeit not good, underlying possession numbers and a hideously low PDO. They were a team primed for positive regression (teams tend to average out at a PDO of 1.000).
This season is a different story, first, their underlying possession numbers are bad. Additionally, while they are unlucky, they are nowhere near as snake-bitten as the 2013-14 team, which bodes ill.
In addition, the statistics seem to back the eye test. The team is trapped in its own end far too often and for too long. They are not prepared to start games and have yet to put forth a full game’s worth of effort.
Next: Why is Nick Holden still playing?
The New York Rangers can look to members of that 2013-14 team like Henrik Lundqvist, Ryan McDonagh, and Mats Zuccarello as guides to turning their season around after a dismal start and making the playoffs. However, they will have to do so soon as the clock winds down on October.
(Statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Historical scores and records courtesy of Hockey-Reference)