New York Rangers: What’s behind Rick Nash’s production decline?

Rick Nash hasn’t been off to a blazing start like some of his other New York Rangers teammates. However, is he just unlucky or are there other factors at play here?

Since arriving to the New York Rangers, Rick Nash has been a key component to the team. Although panned for his lack of playoff success, Nash has been one of the Rangers’ most consistent offensive players.

Every players’ production declines after their prime, Father Time spares no one. Nash is no spring chicken at 33 years old. And as we were reminded on November 6th against his former team, the Columbus Blue Jackets, a veteran of over 1000 NHL games.

Yes, every player will enter a decline but Nash’s production seemed to fall off a cliff. It was only back in 2014-15 that Nash eclipsed the 40 goal mark for the third time. He scored a career-high 42 goals in 79 games.

Over the years, Rick Nash has transformed himself (and been rebranded) from that dynamic game-breaking power forward into a jack-of-all trades, three-zone, two-way player.

We’ll take a statistical look, both normal and advanced, at Nash and see if this change in role or another reason, or perhaps simply luck is the reason for Nash’s decline in production.

Boxcar Stats

(Above statistics courtesy of NHL.com)

Listed above are some of Nash’s baseball card stats from his time with the Rangers so far.

Right off the bat, one thing that jumps out to me is how consistent Nash’s shooting percentage is. Apart from 2015-16 (not counting the beginning of this season), Nash has shot right around his career shooting percentage.

His numbers aren’t boosted by an unsustainable shooting percentage nor is he overly snake bitten either. That’s why his shooting percentage to start this season is important to note. Historically, we can expect Nash’s shooting percentage to get to that 10-12% range by the end of the season.

The other thing that jumps out to me is that his shots on goal per game has dropped about a full shot per game since his career year in 2014-15.

It should come as little surprise that a combination of low shot volume and a low (for him) shooting percentage combined to give Nash his worst statistical season in 2015-16.

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Another thing to note is Nash is not a player that scores an abundant amount of goals on the power play for the Rangers.

On the surface, this seems like a relatively open and shut case. Nash isn’t shooting as much as he used to and even with a consistent shooting percentage, will result in fewer goals.

However, what these numbers don’t tell us is why he’s putting fewer shots on net. They don’t tell us how he’s being deployed, or where or for how long. We don’t know if he’s still making attempts but they aren’t on net. And we don’t see how many scoring chances he’s getting and what quality they are.

All of those variables and more contribute to paint a fuller picture of Nash as a player. Looking at some advanced stats, we will attempt to figure out if and how they can explain Nash’s production.

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Zone Deployment and Usage

(Above stats courtesy of Corsica.Hockey)

The above lists how long Nash was utilized for during a particular situation: 5 on 5, on the powerplay and shorthanded. It also lists his Zone Start statistics.

OZS% is the percentage of Nash’s shifts (5-on-5) that started in his team’s offensive zone. Similarly, DZS% is the percentage of Nash’s shifts (5-on-5) that began in his team’s defensive zone. ZSR is Zone Start Ratio or the amount of shifts Nash begins in the offensive zone relative to the defensive zone, excepting neutral zone starts. A ZSR of 1 would mean Nash started all of his shifts in the offensive or neutral zones while a ZSR of 0 would mean that Nash started all of his shifts in the defensive or neutral zones.

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All of that information combines to tell us that, more or less, his deployment and usage are not the key contributing factors to Nash’s decline in production. Nash’s 5-on-5 deployment has been very consistent, even after the coaching switch from John Tortorella to Alain Vigneault. In fact, so far this season, Nash has been deployed more often in the offensive zone than usual.

Yes, there is a significant drop in Nash’s 5 on 5 usage from 2013 to 2013-14 (note the coaching change), with him skating about five fewer shifts per game. There is also a clear indication of when he began his penalty killing duties in 2014-15 as well.

However, it must be noted that Nash’s best production year as a Ranger came in 2014-15. His deployment and usage have essentially not changed since then, a difference of a shift here and there at most.

If where he’s being utilized, and when, do not seem to be significant variables, then what else could be?

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Possession Metrics

(Above Stats, all 5 on 5, courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey)

(Quick primer: CF = Corsi For (i.e. all shot attempts: shots on goal, misses and blocked shots), SCF = Scoring Chances For, HDCF = High Danger scoring Chances For, /60 is the rates of the stat per 60 minutes of ice time, GF = Goals For, xGF = eXpected Goals For. The “i” that precedes those stats means “individual”)

And here’s where things get weird. Nash’s possession game has been declining the past few seasons. How much of that is due to other players is a topic for another post.

However, on an individual basis, his scoring chance, high danger scoring chance and expected goals for are relatively consistent.

The big dip in iHDCF/60 seems to correlate with his production dip that year as well. On the other hand, Nash’s iHDCF/60 last season matches his best two seasons on Broadway.

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So far this season, (small sample size alert) Nash has actually been more dangerous offensively than previous seasons.

The biggest discrepancy year over year is his expected goals for compared to the amount of goals he actually scored.

During his first three seasons as Ranger, Nash vastly outperformed expectations. This peaked in 2014-15 when he scored 12 more goals 5 on 5 than expected.

Since then, correlating to his decline, he has been meeting his expected goals tally.

The good news is that it appears that Nash is really getting unlucky. The bad news is that he only is unlucky now in comparison to his good fortune previously.

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The hope here is that with the amount of shot attempts and scoring attempts that Nash is generating, some will start to go in for him. He doesn’t need to change his game much and is heating up with three goals and six points in his last six games. While not producing as much as his halcyon days, hopefully, it is a sign that his luck is turning around.