New York Rangers: Faceoff prowess not providing boost

The New York Rangers have their highest faceoff winning percentage in more than a decade. Despite added success at the dots, the Rangers struggle to control the puck.

New York has won 51.2 percent of faceoffs through 17 games this season. That’s their best mark since the 52.3 percent rate they posted in 2007-08.

Perhaps the Rangers prioritized improving their ability to win draws over the offseason. The NHL’s crackdown on faceoff violations might somehow play to the Rangers’ strengths. Maybe it’s just a side effect of playing 12 of their first 17 games at home.

Whatever the cause, they’ve started shifts with puck more often than not this season. It sounds like something to celebrate. We want the Rangers to dominate the puck.

While the Rangers are winning a lot of faceoffs, it probably isn’t translating into a ton of puck possession.

Possession numbers

Corsi for percentage (CF%) is a stat which tracks shot attempts for teams and players. It gives us a rough idea of which teams and players do the best job of controlling the puck. Even after a five game winning streak, the Rangers still don’t grade out too well by this metric.

Team-wide corsi works best when limited to five on five situations and adjusted for score effects. NHL teams tend to sit back when they have big leads, which skews the numbers. So I’m going to use Hockey-Reference’s version of five on five close corsi.

A game is considered “close” if the game is within 1 goal (1st and 2nd periods) or tied (3rd period or overtime).

The Rangers boast a five on five close corsi of 46.0 percent. That’s the lowest mark for the Rangers since Hockey-Reference started tracking corsi in the 07-08 season. It’s actually their worst score over that period by more than two full percentage points.

So what’s going on?

Winning faceoffs obviously doesn’t hurt a team, but they’re not as big of a deal as fans and commentators sometimes make them out to be. Plenty of other factors are far more important. Analytics writer Ben Finkel put it aptly.

Skill in taking faceoffs doesn’t seem to have anything to do with actually playing hockey and scoring goals.Think about it– Players spend 99% of the time on the ice skating, shooting, checking, and generally doing other things that constitute “playing hockey.” That 1% of the time they’re taking faceoffs, it’s like we’ve entered a voodoo land where everyone sits still and the puck is in the referee’s hand.

Let’s use David Desharnais as an example. Desharnais boasts an impressive 57.4 faceoff percentage, but his 46.2 five on five CF% trails all Ranger forwards except Jesper Fast.

Desharnais basically took Derek Stepan’s place over the offseason. Last season, Stepan posted a 47.0 faceoff percentage to go with a 50.2 five on five CF%. Desharnais plays roughly five minutes less per game than Stepan did last year, but he’s still one of New York’s top three centers.

Players are obviously more than their CF%, but faceoff excellence isn’t enough to paper over a weak possession game. What a player does after the initial puck drop makes up most of their value.

Special teams caveat

The Rangers currently have the league’s fifth ranked powerplay with a 23.8 percent success rate. Their ability to strike quickly off the draw plays a big part in that, as illustrated in their win against Columbus on the sixth. The Rangers scored within seconds of gaining the man advantage multiple times in the third period.

Those goals and wins likely don’t happen without Mika Zibanejad and his 53.1 faceoff percentage. Timo Seppa of Hockey Prospectus explains the value of acting fast after claiming a draw.

Over the first 11 seconds following a faceoff, 14 non-empty net goals have been scored this postseason by the faceoff winner versus one goal against (a defensive zone giveaway by Anaheim). Everything is fine for the first 11 ticks, but when the clock strikes 12 seconds, the statistical advantage has turned into a pumpkin.

Next: New York Rangers: Analyzing Filip Chytil’s Unprecedented AHL Start

Zibanejad’s enjoying an all around breakout season. He leads the Rangers in points as well as five on five CF%.

But the Rangers need more than one center to carry the load. Both Desharnais and fellow top-nine center Kevin Hayes need to step their games up.

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The New York Rangers have their highest faceoff winning percentage in more than a decade. Despite added success at the dots, the Rangers struggle to control the puck.

Possession numbers

So what’s going on?

Special teams caveat

Schedule