New York Rangers: Should we worry about Ryan McDonagh?

Heading into the season, Ryan McDonagh was supposed to headline the New York Rangers revitalized defense. However, he has not looked up to his usual all-star standards. How much concern should there be regarding his play?

The off-season represented a changing of the guard for the New York Rangers’ defense. Longtime stalwart Dan Girardi was bought out by the team and Kevin Klein departed for Europe. To replace them, the Rangers re-signed trade deadline acquisition Brendan Smith and signed New York native Kevin Shattenkirk.

In theory and on paper, the Rangers would ice the best defensive unit they’ve had in quite some time. However, the Rangers’ defense has not come as advertised, allowing an average of 3.22 goals against per game.

Apart from the deployment and usage of the defensive corps as a whole, Rangers Captain Ryan McDonagh has been noticeably struggling this season. The expectation was that he would be able to play more up to his potential, not having to cover for a partner who was a defensive liability.

Instead, he has often looked like his recently bought out former defensive partner. McDonagh has looked a step or two slow, which is concerning for a defenseman whose skating is one of his best assets. Like the rest of the defense, he has also made a number of unforced giveaways with the puck.

In addition, it probably hasn’t helped that McDonagh has had a revolving cast of characters as his partner.

Is McDonagh having as poor of a season as he appears and can we expect his play to turn around?

Offensive Production

One aspect of Ryan McDonagh’s game that has both been heralded, as well as scrutinized is his offensive production.

After 18 games, McDonagh leads all Rangers defensemen in 5-on-5 production with six points, all assists, four of which are primary. In all situations, he is second among Rangers defenseman in scoring with twelve points (after Kevin Shattenkirk’s 17), all assists, seven of which are primary.

12 points in 18 games looks good at face value and if he maintains his current pace, McDonagh would tally 55 points, shattering his career high. However, McDonagh has yet to score a single goal this season.

Also worrying, is the fact that only half of his total points have been scored 5-on-5. McDonagh is trying to make his own luck however. His 43 individual shot attempts (shots on net, missed shots and blocked shots, aka Corsi) are second on the team during 5-on-5 play, after Brady Skjei’s 56.

If he sustains his offensive generation 5-on-5, along with his powerplay time, he should find the back of the net. He has never been much of a goal scorer, so McDonagh having zero goals not even a quarter of the way through the season isn’t overly concerning.

Based on his offense alone, McDonagh is not having a bad season. However, given that McDonagh’s job as a defenseman is to well, defend, how worried should we be about his defensive play?

Advanced Statistics – Possession

It isn’t as easy to quantify the impact a player makes on the defensive side of the puck. Even in this burgeoning era of advanced statistics in hockey, there is no one definitive metric encompassing defensive effectiveness.

The table below displays McDonagh’s possession metrics so far this season during 5-on-5 play.

CF/60	CA/60	CF%	GF/60	GA/60	GF%	SCF/60	SCA/60	SCF%	HDCF/60	HDCA/60	HDCF%
59.88

(1)55.03

(1)52.11

(1)3.64

(2)3.03

(6)54.55

(1)31.76

(1)30.14

(5)51.31

(2)14.36

(5)11.33

(2)55.91

(2)

(Above stats courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com)

As mentioned above, the ‘C’ in ‘CF’ and ‘CA’ stands for Corsi aka shot attempts. Moving left to right, ‘G’ is Goals, ‘SC’ is Scoring Chances and ‘HDC’ is High Danger scoring Chances. The ‘F’ and ‘A’ that is appended to each of these metrics indicates whether that stat is “for” the team the player is on (i.e. at the opponent’s net) or “against” their team (i.e. at their own net). The ‘/60’ means that particular stat is over 60 minutes of ice time.

For example: McDonagh’s CF/60 of 59.88 means that every 60 minutes he’s on the ice, his team directs 59.88 shot attempts (for his team) at the opponent’s net.

The numbers in parentheses indicate McDonagh’s ranking for that particular metric among Rangers defensemen who have played at least 100 minutes this season.

From the numbers listed above, we can see that it appears McDonagh is outperforming most of his colleagues, ranking first or second among the team’s defensemen for almost every metric. This suggests that he is driving play in a positive manner.

However, the team has also let up more scoring chances and goals against when he is on the ice.

Relative Statistics

Relative Statistics are advanced statistics that allow us to see how much of an impact a player makes, compared to his teammates. The stats listed are the difference between when the player is on the ice versus when he is not.

In this case, metrics ‘For’ are better if they are higher and ‘Against’ are better if lower/more negative.

Despite not being denoted in the header, the following stats are McDonagh’s relative possession statistics 5-on-5 so far this season.

CF/60	CA/60	CF%	GF/60	GA/60	GF%	SCF/60	SCA/60	SCF%	HDCF/60	HDCA/60	HDCF%
6.82

(1)-6.78

(1)5.92

(1)2.03

(1)0.39

(7)16.71

(1)4.25

(1)-1.05

(4)4.44

(2)0.21

(5)-2.6

(2)5.5

(1)

(Above stats courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com)

The relative statistics mirror the rates and percentages listed in the previous section. McDonagh is driving possession as seen in his Corsi/Shot attempt numbers but is not being rewarded for it. The team actually lets in more goals relative to when he is on the ice than not, but not by much.

I haven’t listed their statistics for brevity, but he is vastly outperforming his teammates in several of these metrics, further reinforcing his value.

In Conclusion

McDonagh is driving play offensively, as many predicted might happen after he was unleashed from Girardi. However, defensively, he and the team haven’t fulfilled their end of the bargain.

This is reflected in the straightforward numbers: McDonagh has been on the ice for 15 goals against 5-on-5, more than any other Rangers’ blue liner. His Goals For rate and percentage is good because the team has also scored a team-high 18 goals when he’s been on the ice.

The fact that he’s only contributed to six of his team’s 18 goals for, while failing to defend 15 goals against, probably leads to the perception that he’s struggling worse than he is.

Another factor is the expectations on McDonagh as captain and the team’s best defenseman. McDonagh suffers a degree of the same expectations heaped upon his netminder, Henrik Lundqvist. When Lundqvist and McDonagh don’t play up to the sterling standards that we are used to seeing, they look much worse in comparison.

Not for nothing, Lundqvist has been less than his stellar self, resulting in worse goals against numbers for all Rangers. McDonagh has also a number of maintenance days either indicating wear-and-tear is catching up to him, and/or he’s nursing a minor injury.

Next: Pavel Buchnevich is securing long term roster role

The underlying numbers indicate that McDonagh is doing the right things for his team in order to set them up to win. However, McDonagh needs to do a better job at actually preventing goals, although how much of them are his fault as opposed to his teammates or goaltender isn’t readily apparent.

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