New York Rangers: Expectations vs reality with coaching styles

The past few years, the New York Rangers have been characterized by the man behind the bench. Both John Tortorella and Alain Vigneault brought signature styles to the team. However, did the teams’ play match up to the expectations regarding them?

In the 2013 offseason, the New York Rangers relieved then head coach John Tortorella of his duties. To replace him, they brought in Alain Vigneault, similarly let go from the Vancouver Canucks.

This coaching changed signaled a change in philosophy for a team that was one season removed from an Eastern Conference Final berth. Vigneault brought a different, almost diametrically opposing style than Tortorella, to the Rangers.

At least that was what we were led to believe.

Per Larry Brooks of the New York Post, regarding the playoff series between Tortorella’s Rangers and the Washington Capitals in that 2012 run to the Eastern Conference Final.

"The Rangers and Capitals will play a pivotal Game 5 tonight at Madison Square Garden in an eastern semifinal matchup that might otherwise be known as the Blocked Shot Series."

The debate was hyperbolized to the extent that some claimed it was “ruining” the sport, like the trap of the New Jersey Devil’s heyday.

Contrast that to the narratives thrown around since the team’s hiring of Alain Vigneault. This is from Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post when the Rangers were off to their torrid start to last season.

"Alain Vigneault often talks in obtuse terms, like the “process” of young players, and the “mentality” of his fast, counter-punching system."

Or Evan Sporer of The Sporting News early this season, with regards to Kevin Shattenkirk:

"The Rangers play an uptempo style, one that meshes with Shattenkirk’s strengths. And it showed"

We’ll look at some statistics, advanced and not, to determine whether the numbers back the perception of the teams’ styles under both coaches.

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Blocked Shots

As mentioned above, the Tortorella-led Rangers teams reputedly employed a defense-first, shot-blocking style. The following lists the Rangers 5 on 5 blocked shots since 2009.

Starting with Tortorella’s first full season with the Rangers, his teams were in the top-10 if not top five in the NHL year in and year out. They earned their reputation as shot blockers, with defensemen such as Dan Girardi and Marc Staal leading the way.

Initially, after the coaching change to Vigneault, the Rangers did not block as many shots as under Tortorella. The team averaged a little over two fewer shots per game from the last season under Tortorella to the first season under Vigneault.

However, the past few seasons have seen an uptick in blocked shots, with the Rangers reaching levels seen during the Tortorella era.

The likely reason for this is that teams that run a deficit in possession metrics are often near the top of the shot blocking chart. So, let’s take a look at how the teams stacked up in that regard.

Possession Statistics

(CF% = Corsi For percentage (i.e. all shot attempts for: shots on goal, misses and blocked shots over total shot attempts), GF = Goals For, xGF = eXpected Goals For. GA = Goals Against, xGF = eXpected Goals Against. The ‘/60’ means that particular stat is over 60 minutes of ice time. The ‘diff’ is actual minus expected Goals For and Against)

Interestingly enough, the possession stats both seemingly confirm some preconceived notions surrounding the teams and deny others. Again all listed stats are 5 on 5.

Looking at Goals For, Tortorella’s teams were less lethal offensively but only in terms of on-ice results. In terms of expected results, his teams were as dangerous, if not more so, than Vigneault’s units. The difference is in execution, as seen in the xGF diff.

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A negative xGF diff means that the team underperformed against expectations whereas a positive means they overperformed. This is likely due to one of two things. First, Vigneault’s teams have simply gotten ‘luckier’ than Tortorella’s. The other possibility is that the Rangers have employed better shooters under Vigneault than those on Tortorella’s watch.

In terms of defense, neither coach’s teams performed terribly differently over the course of a season. They all also outperformed their xGA. This is likely due to the rock in net in the form of Henrik Lundqvist.

One last note, despite the two seasons of having a top-10 CF%, both coaches’ teams were mediocre to bad possession teams. This helps to explain the number of blocked shots for most seasons. The lockout-shortened season is an outlier here, but that may be attributed to the (relatively) small sample size.

In Conclusion

Perception is an interesting thing in hockey where the eye test is still an important component. In the case of the recent Rangers, it has been true about certain aspects of the team’s play.

Tortorella’s Rangers were among the most notorious shot blockers, and the data reinforces this. However, Vigneault’s later teams have been posting similar numbers for a supposedly offensively oriented team.

Similarly, Vigneault’s teams have been more effective offensively in actually putting the puck in the net. However, the stylistic differences result in not much difference in expected goals.

Lastly, the defensive consistency is notable despite the Tortorella teams’ defensive reputation and Vigneault’s teams’ offensive reputation.

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The Rangers have enjoyed one of their best eras in franchise history under Tortorella and Vigneault. Despite the differences in style, the result has been lots of winning in the regular and postseasons, although the ultimate prize has continued to elude the Rangers. Tortorella and his style only last three and a shortened season, Vigneault is now in his fifth season. In order to get over the hump, a new style may be what the team needs.

(All stats are courtesy of Corsica.Hockey)