The New York Rangers have rallied off two straight Metropolitan Division wins and firmly in the playoff hunt. There is still room for improvement.
The Rangers started off the season an abysmal 3-7-2 and at Halloween were on the verge of a lost season. But the third period come from behind win against the Vegas Golden Knights spurred the revival of this season.
The Rangers are on a roll at a difficult part of their schedule. Friday’s game against Washington and then Saturday’s game against the Devils will be good measuring stick games. The problem the Rangers have is how they are going about winning games. Trying to outscore the other team while surrendering more shots than that team does is a bad combination.
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We may win but it won’t be pretty
The Rangers survived a brutal game in Pittsburgh without Henrik Lundqvist and now have three days to get healthy. The team will welcome the return of Mika Zibanejad, whenever he returns. Without Zibanejad in the lineup, the power play has gone dry and that is cause for concern. Throughout the successful month of November, a humming power play fueled the team’s offense.
The group of players the team has have overachieved in my mind. The abysmal defense has held back a dynamic offense from their true potential. Somehow the Rangers kept winning with Nick Holden and Steve Kampfer getting significant ice time. Eventually the house of cards that is the Rangers defense will outright collapse.
The team is in a real danger zone in terms of night in and night out play. The Rangers average 3.33 goals for a game which is good for sixth in the entire NHL. The defense however is 17th in the league surrendering 2.96 goals per game. While this means the Rangers won’t be in a lot of boring games, it also means that consistent success is fragile.
Shot Suppression and Puck Luck
The problem the team has is shots for versus shots against. Teams can still be successful when they on average give up more shots on goal than they take, but it is difficult. The Rangers on average give up 1.1 more shots on goal per game than they take.
The Rangers have parlayed offensive success into sustained winning, however, they’re due for a regression. The team is currently playing at a PDO (goalies save percentage plus team shooting percentage) of 101.3, and several key contributors playing well above the average of 100. Michael Grabner, who’s been absolutely on fire as of late has a PDO of 108.2, which is unsustainable.
There is also the matter of the Rangers shallow depth. They’ve been able to survive Zibanejad’s injury because David Desharnais was able to step in short term. The Rangers shouldn’t under any circumstance rush Zibanejad back into the lineup. The center is too good of a player to risk his long term health for games in mid December. One more injury to the forward group though and the wheels would come off.
What it all means
The team has found their game, but it’s probably an unsustainable game. Henrik Lundqvist isn’t 25 anymore and can’t withstand barrages from other teams like he used to. The defensive group just doesn’t have the talent to hold other teams at bay. It’s going to take inventive deployment and pairings to mask the deficiencies going forward.
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In a brutally competitive Metropolitan division the Rangers will need to keep pace. They also have the added challenge of a suddenly competitive New Jersey Devils team on top of the teams that made the playoffs last season. December will be a thermometer to see whether or not come deadline time the Rangers should be buyers or sellers.