After 41 saves in Pittsburgh, Ondrej Pavelec is showing he could be a serviceable backup. If the New York Rangers want to make a run this postseason, they will need to rely on him as such.
The New York Rangers are used to having arguably the best backup goaltender in hockey. Cam Talbot was just that when he was on the team and Antti Raanta was equally as dominant in relief of Henrik Lundqvist the past couple of years.
Now the team has a backup that has been below the league average most of his career. So far into his Rangers’ tenure, Ondrej Pavelec has been good, but he’s not played up to the standards of New York backups.
So far this season Pavelec has a 2-4 record with a 3.45 goals against average and a .899 save percentage. The numbers are much lower than the Rangers are used to seeing from their backups. However, the number that stands out the most is four.
Pavelec has started just four games this season for the Rangers. This means Lundqvist has already started 23 games this early in the season. If the current pace continues, Pavelec will start just 12 games the entire season. That is far too few for a backup goaltender on a team that wants to contend.
Related Story: Why the Desharnais experiment isn't working
The case against Pavelec
The numbers don’t lie. Pavelec has not been solid this season. In fact, he has been worse than the league average for a goalie. His goals against average and save percentage are weak, especially for the team that he is on. Outside of that, he hasn’t exactly passed the eye test. He seems unsure and slow at times in net. His rebound control isn’t bad, but it leaves a lot to be desired.
You certainly can’t say Pavelec is as good as Talbot or Raanta were when they played for the Rangers. There isn’t any comparison. He will likely be a backup the rest of his career and while he may be solid for some teams, the Rangers have been spoiled with their backups. The quality of a starter is expected when you’re a Ranger backup. Simply put, it doesn’t seem that Pavelec gives the Rangers the best chance to win when he is on the ice.
Related Story: Five players who own the Rangers
The case for Pavelec
Let’s start with the basics. Pavelec looked really good against the Penguins. Forty-one saves is no joke, let alone against an offense that boasts Evgeni Malkin, Sydney Crosby, and Phil Kessel.
However, his single-game stats were good because he played well and the Rangers are playing much better than they were a month ago. Pavelec has played just three games since Halloween when the team turned the corner and only one was a start. Giving Pavelec more time behind a better team will help him more than anyone else.
The other reason the Rangers need Pavelec to start is so that Lundqvist is not burned out come playoff time.
Lundqvist has only played 70 or more games in a regular season three times. Lundqvist is also 35 years old this season with years of postseason wear and tear on his body. The Rangers didn’t advance past the second round any of those years and even missed the playoffs the other time.
Currently, Lundqvist is on pace to start 70 games. The last goaltender to win the Stanley Cup playing at least 70 games was Martin Brodeur in 2002-2003. Brodeur started 73 games that regular season behind the best defense in hockey, something the Rangers don’t have.
The Solution
It has become increasingly difficult to win the Stanley Cup if you don’t have a well-rested goaltender. Lundqvist won’t be well rested, no matter what he says, if he starts 70 games.
Pavelec is needed if not for that reason alone. The wins don’t have to be pretty and he doesn’t have to start 25 games, but Pavelec needs to be competent in net for New York 15-20 times this season. If he can just provide average play behind a great offense, the team should qualify for the postseason.
Next: Must win games upcoming for Rangers
Ondrej Pavelec is by no means the answer as a backup for the team, this is just a stop for the veteran netminder. However, he could be a big piece in the Rangers success. His play in goal is valuable two-fold.
Firstly, if he plays well, the Rangers have a great chance to win with their backup. Secondly, if he plays, Lundqvist doesn’t. A fresh ‘best goalie in the world’ helps make a deep playoff run more feasible.