New York Rangers: Evaluating Paul Carey’s season to date
Paul Carey has been a pleasant surprise for the New York Rangers this season. For someone who’s played inconsistent minutes, he has played some decent hockey, especially as of late.
Paul Carey has been part of an outstanding fourth line for the past month or so. Along with Jesper Fast and Boo Nieves, this group has been incredibly important to the Rangers’ recent success.
To be a successful team in this league, it is absolutely imperative to be able to roll four lines deep. The Rangers know this well, as the 2014 run to the Stanley Cup Final featured a fourth line of Dominic Moore, Brian Boyle, and Derek Dorsett. This line made the difference late in games and was incredibly successful. Most teams don’t have a dependable line that can be deployed for defensive zone faceoffs.
This season’s edition of the fourth line may be their best since 2014. Over the past five games, the line of Carey-Nieves-Fast has combined for 11 points. Paul Carey’s play has been a big part of this recent success.
Early season struggles
Paul Carey was signed in the offseason and expected to compete for a spot in camp but ultimately play in the AHL. Carey, to this point in his career, had been a career AHL player. He surprised a lot of people by earning a spot on the opening night roster. He played sparingly on the fourth line or sat in the press box as the 13th forward.
Carey looked out of his element and outright lost on the ice. It wasn’t that he was bad, it was just that he didn’t really provide anything. There were times that he was scratched and in a suit, so naturally, fans clamored for him to be sent down to Hartford.
Once Boo Nieves was called up to center the fourth line, everything started to fit. Carey looked much better on the ice, and recorded his first goal on November 22nd, against the Carolina Hurricanes. He has been a mainstay in the lineup ever since.
Recent success
Carey began to experience some more success on December 1st, once again against the Hurricanes. The Rangers had a comfortable lead late, and Alain Vigneault opted to give Carey some power play time. Carey wound up scoring on that power play, and it was the start of a four-game point streak.
He wound up recording an assist in three straight games after that goal, December 5th against the Penguins, December 8th against the Capitals, and December 9th against the Devils.
To date this season, he has two goals and three assists through 18 games. Over an 82 game season, this would be 10 goals and 14 assists. The Rangers fourth line has needed production like that for years.
These stats won’t come to fruition because he won’t be playing every game once Mika Zibanejad comes back from his concussion. It’s a bonus to have a 13th forward that can be called upon in an emergency and not just fill in, but be a positive contributor.
Carey’s possession metrics haven’t been great. He is currently posting an even strength Corsi For percentage of 46.6%. His zone starts explain why these numbers aren’t eye-popping, or even especially good. Carey is currently starting 55.9% of his shifts in the defensive zone, which would explain why he faces more shot attempts against than shot attempts for.
All things considered, Paul Carey has been a serviceable forward for the Rangers for an extended period of time.
Next: Jesper Fast having a breakout year after injury
With Paul Carey, Boo Nieves and Jesper Fast, the Rangers are putting out a fourth line that is strong on the forecheck, good in their own end and has the potential to provide some offense. Even though he will most likely sit once Zibanejad comes back, Paul Carey has been a decent fourth liner who has exceeded expectations.