The New York Rangers took a tremendous gamble by trading Derek Stepan and expecting Kevin Hayes to replace him
The New York Rangers underwent a dramatic transformation regarding their core this past summer. General Manager Jeff Gorton made two bold moves: trading first-line center Derek Stepan and buying out longtime defenseman Dan Girardi.
The Stepan trade in particular raised many eyebrows, as the Rangers also lost another center (Oscar Lindberg) to Vegas in the expansion draft. That left their center depth depleted.
Mika Zibanejad was looked upon to step into that first-line center role, and has performed admirably. But Kevin Hayes was just as much under the microscope.
Hayes’ career started off with a bang. His 45 points in 2014-15 seemed a promise of things to come. But for the following two seasons, Hayes has not reached his full potential, seeming stunted and held back. Where his points totals dropped in 2015-16, they rose the following year. Unfortunately, that came hand-in-hand with cratering shot statistics.
With a more demanding role on the horizon, Hayes’s 2017-18 season looked to be make-or-break.
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Stepping up
As things have turned out through the first half of the 2017-18 season, Hayes has been a major factor for the New York Rangers’ success. His scoring is right in line with career averages. More importantly, he’s doing more damage at even strength and his primary point scoring has seen a resurgence.
Perhaps most importantly, however, is the fact that he’s producing like this despite his role in the lineup. Hayes has been counted on as a more shutdown-oriented center, seeing barely any power play time and increased usage on the penalty kill.
That he is blossoming into a two-way center—while continuing to score—is a fantastic sign. His 1.62 5-on-5 primary points per 60 ranks 64th among all skaters with at least 300 minutes played this season, according to Corsica Hockey.
Among only centers, Hayes rockets up to 33rd. That’s borderline top-line production for a guy who’s seeing more defensive zone starts and tough minutes.
An added bonus is that Hayes’ tough minutes are opening up more chances for the Rangers’ depth players. The recent production of players like David Desharnais and Michael Grabner shows how effective they can be when given friendlier zone starts.
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Hayes vs. Stepan
The question is, are the New York Rangers better off with Kevin Hayes taking over Stepan’s minutes?
Looking purely at this season, Stepan has struggled. How much that can be attributed to Arizona’s ineptitude is up for debate, but there’s no doubt that he’s seen a drop in production.
In 67 fewer minutes at 5-on-5, Hayes is out-producing Stepan in virtually every area. Stepan’s points per 60 is a meager 0.88, versus Hayes’ 1.99. Hayes is carrying an expected goals-for percentage of 50.26; Stepan is lagging behind at 45.54.
Only in shot attempts is Stepan performing better than Hayes this season. His 48.40 Corsi is more than two points better than Hayes and his 2.93 Corsi For Rel indicates that Stepan is carrying the play more than his teammates in Arizona. Hayes, meanwhile, is about average among Rangers skaters with -0.26 percent.
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As far as this season goes, the Rangers appear to be better off with Hayes. And if he can parlay his improvements at both ends of the rink into future progression, Hayes may yet develop into the dominant center many envisioned after his rookie season.