Following a 27-goal season, Michael Grabner leads the New York Rangers in goals with 18 already this year. The Austrian winger is on pace for a career-high 38 goals. Does that mean the Rangers should re-sign him?
Grabner’s on track for unrestricted free agency this summer. His next deal figures to dwarf his current two-year, $1.65 million per season contract. Fitting in a substantial raise might prove tricky for the Rangers’ salary cap.
On the other hand, where would they be without Grabner’s production? While the Rangers are far from Stanley Cup favorites, his scoring has them firmly in the playoff picture.
New York could also take a major step forward next season with the arrival of 2017 draft picks Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson. It’s hard to imagine the rookies putting the Rangers over the top if they lose Grabner’s depth scoring.
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Extension snapshot
The Rangers have to give Michael Grabner a raise if they want to keep him. He might require a substantial one.
This year is Grabner’s age 30 season, making next year his age 31 season. The chart below tracks deals given out over the last two offseasons to forwards 30 or over who scored at least 20 goals in their contract year.
All but one player from this rough list of comparables signed deals paying them a higher average salary than Grabner’s current $1.65 million. Most signed for substantially more than that.
T.J. Oshie, Loui Eriksson, and Andrew Ladd match Grabner’s situation most closely. Each played their contract year at age 30 and each scored 25 or more goals.
They all also signed massive deals. All three received at least six years and at least $5.5 million per season.
The free agent market may decide those players still had substantial advantages over Grabner. After all, he has only three assists this season and managed only 13 last year. Even assuming teams penalize him for that, he still likely lands a contract in the four-year, $4.5 million per season range.
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Salary cap dilemma
Of course, the Rangers don’t just have to find room to pay Michael Grabner. They also have to pay a host of other unrestricted and restricted free agents.
Fellow winger Rick Nash is seriously snake-bitten, but he still leads all Rangers in goals during his tenure with the team. Nash won’t command the $7.8 million per season he currently earns, but he will be expensive if to re-sign in a budget crunch.
New York has a long list of restricted free agents to re-sign. Brady Skjei, Kevin Hayes, and J.T. Miller headline the group. Jimmy Vesey and Boo Nieves also need new deals. That makes for five free agents that will need raises, Grabner may be the odd man out.
The Rangers will need a new backup goalie too since Ondrej Pavelec only signed for one year. New York might also want the room to bring in players from outside the organization via trade or free agency.
The Rangers could ultimately face choosing between Nash and Grabner. Grabner has outproduced Nash of late. Grabner’s also scoring on a career-high percentage of his shots for the second straight season, though.
The Rangers can’t expect Grabner to keep scoring on 16 to 20 percent of his shots, yet he shows no signs of slowing down. They might have to guess whether Nash’s power game or Grabner’s raw speed will age better.
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The case for a trade
Trading Grabner away would hurt. Holding onto him only to fail at extending him would hurt more. The Rangers must avoid that scenario at all costs.
Therefore, New York either needs to re-sign Grabner by the February 26 trade deadline, or they need to move him. Jeff Gorton could even flip Grabner at the deadline and then try bringing him back in July.
Should the Rangers decide to move Grabner, he could create a bidding war. Grabner’s high goal totals and tantalizing speed should leave potential trade partners drooling. He doesn’t boast a monster, all-around game, but he does add a unique and deadly element to any roster.
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The 2018 NHL draft’s extremely high reputation could complicate matters, but the Rangers could also use it to their advantage. If a team wants to add Grabner without giving up a 2018 first, the Rangers can target NHL ready talent. The Rangers aim to contend next season and need to be concerned with the future.