New York Rangers: A look at Alain Vigneault’s shootout selections
By Dan Carrozzi
Love it or hate it, the shootout is a part of the NHL. Today we’ll take a look at the New York Rangers’ approach to the tiebreaker and what improvements, if any, can be made.
Since the lockout of 2004-05, the shootout has decided who gets the extra point after regulation and overtime. Already in the 2017-18 season, the New York Rangers have had six games decided by the shootout, with only two of them being wins. In addition, three of those games have occurred within the last five.
The skills competition, which is little better than a coin-flip, is still an element of the game that coaches need to prepare for. For Alain Vigneault and the Rangers, his first shooter is a lock: Mats Zuccarello.
After the diminutive Norwegian, Vigneault has a few options. For the most recent three shootouts, Mika Zibanejad has followed Zuccarello, and Kevin Shattenkirk has also featured, shooting third or fourth.
Considering the team has only had two shootout wins, they’ve left points on the table in a crowded and competitive Metropolitan Division, should Rangers head coach Alain Vigneault change up his selections?
Shootout Shooter Overview
So far this season, Vigneault has sent eight players to center ice to participate in the shootout. His selections have been comprised of Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad, David Desharnais, Rick Nash, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jimmy Vesey, J.T. Miller and Pavel Buchnevich.
| Player | Since 2005-06 (Rank) | Since 2013-14 (Rank) | This Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zuccarello | 22/44 = 50% (6/186) | 16/32 = 50% (T-9/160) | 3/6 = 50% |
| Zibanejad | 16/37 = 43.2% (21/186) | 15/35 = 42.9% (T-28/160) | 2/5 = 40% |
| Desharnais | 17/43 = 39.5% (46/186) | 9/25 = 36% (69/160) | 0/2 = 0% |
| Nash | 32/86 = 37.2% (62/186) | 3/12 = 25% (T-122/160) | 1/1 = 100% |
| Shattenkirk | 9/28 = 32.1% (T-158/186) | 7/21 = 33.3% (T-75/160) | 1/3 = 33.3% |
| Vesey | 2/5 = 40% (NR) | 2/5 = 40% (NR) | 1/2 = 50% |
| Miller | 0/3 = 0% (NR) | 0/3 = 0% (NR) | 0/1 = 0% |
| Buchnevich | 0/1 = 0% (NR) | 0/1 = 0% (NR) | 0/1 = 0% |
(Shootout data courtesy of NHL.com. Rankings are out of skaters with at 25 attempts since 05-06 and 10 attempts since 13-14)
We might as well start at the top. Mats Zuccarello, since the inception of the shootout, has been one of the best shootout specialists in the NHL. He is remarkably consistent, scoring an even 50% of the time since the shootout’s inception in 05-06, Vigneault’s tenure as head coach since 13-14 and this season.
After that, Zibanejad and Desharnais are also in the top-50 in terms of all-time shootout shooters. Zibanejad appears to be a solid second shooter his numbers are remarkably consistent..
For reference, Sidney Crosby clocks in at 42.2% (30/186), Jonathan Towes: 47.7% (10/186), Pavel Datsyuk: 40.8% (36/186). In essence, if your shootout efficiency is north of 40% consistently, you are a shootout specialist.
Unfortunately, much of the NHL is a “what have you done for me lately” league. Taking this into account, it appears that other options for the third shootout shooter should be considered.
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Shootout Improvements
Vigneault appears to be deploying his shootout selections according to their historic shootout conversion rate. As someone who is quick to criticize him, this is not a bad idea in a vacuum.
This is because the shootout takes place in a vacuum. One shooter, one goalie, nothing else. It is the one aspect of an NHL game that is truly individual.
Therefore, in theory, you utilize the data that you have and employ your players with the best chance at succeeding. For the Rangers and Alain Vigneault, having a healthy sample size of shooters is beneficial for making these types of decisions.
However, as far as Vigneault is concerned, he is fond of going the safe route. After Zuccarello and Zibanejad, as sure bets as any, he falls back on historically good shooters Desharnais and Shattenkirk.
Sometimes, coaches will opt to have a player who has had a recent hot streak or played that game particularly well, shoot in the shootout. This seems to be the case with his selections of Miller, Nash, Vesey, and Buchnevich.
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Change it up?
With the data backing him, Vigneault seems hesitant to shake up the status quo with the shootout.
Second-year winger Pavel Buchnevich has only been deployed once in an NHL shootout, in which he missed. His soft hands make him a natural fit for the shootout. Ditto for Kevin Hayes, who has only had two attempts in his career.
With every point in the Metropolitan Division seemingly more important than the last, it is up to the head coach to put his team in a position to win. For a team that is increasingly playing past regulation, a focus on a stronger shootout selection should be a priority.
Next: New York Rangers: Adequate Replacements For Chris Kreider
The New York Rangers can only benefit from some new faces in the shootout. Given that the team still has to rely heavily on Henrik Lundqvist to deliver them through those extra frames he can’t score himself.