New York Rangers: Going all in on falling for Dahlin
The New York Rangers have just three wins in their last ten times out, it is time to embrace the suck.
In the National Hockey League, the best way to dramatically improve a team in little to no time is through the draft. The way the league’s contract structures currently work, the best players in the league rarely free agency. It is not like the NBA where the league’s best player hits free agency and then dictates the entire market.
The impact of generational talent can turn the fortunes of a team around in little to no time. Both the Edmonton Oilers and the Toronto Maple Leafs reaped the benefits of having the number one overall pick in the draft. Players like Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid do not grow on trees. For the most part, the only way to get players of this caliber is to finish with a top-five pick in the draft.
This is where the remainder of the season for the Rangers comes in. Now, no professional sports team is ever going to admit to tanking or losing on purpose. The optics of a team intentionally losing would be a hard bargain to sell to both the league and the team’s fans. There is a way that the Rangers can pursue a high lottery pick without outright throwing hockey games.
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In fact, it already seems like the team’s front office is all in on the concept of building towards the future. The vultures are circling the corpse of the team that remains as the trade deadline looms. For the Rangers, selling off the veterans on expiring or soon to be expiring contracts kills two birds with one stone.
Fallin for Dahlin
In this year’s pool of prospects, there is one player above and beyond the rest. Even better for the Rangers, Rasmus Dahlin fills a major position of need. It is no secret that the team’s Achilles heel has been the porous defense that hemorrhages shots on a nightly basis.
The 17-year-old currently plays for Frolunda HC of the SHL in Sweden. This is the same team that Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist played for before coming to the United States. Unlike the goaltender, Dahlin is expected to step right into the NHL the season after he is drafted.
The Swede is one of many in a long line of defenseman from his country that grew up idolizing hockey hall of famer Nick Lidstrom. The style of game he plays translates well to North American hockey, the 2017 World Junior Championships were his coming out party.
This is a match made in heaven for New York. However, finishing with the league’s worst record no longer guarantees the number one overall pick. In the interest of keeping teams from outright tanking, the league switched to a lottery method for selecting draft order. The worst team in hockey has a 25% chance of getting the top selection.
As things currently sit, the Rangers have the eleventh worst record in hockey and a roughly 3.3% chance of landing Dahlin. As the season progresses, the team will likely continue to lose because of just how little talent they feature.
How Dahlin fits
The Rangers are a long way from even sniffing a chance at selecting Dahlin at number one overall. However, it is hard not to fall in love with the idea of the Swede serving as Ryan McDonagh’s replacement. Even if the team does not move their captain, McDonagh is still 29 years old. Nagging injuries have hampered McDonagh all season long and he has not played up to expectations because of it.
The in-house replacement for the captain is second-year defensive standout Brady Skjei. As good of a hockey player as the former Minnesota Golden Gopher is, he does not project to the same level as Dahlin. The NHL comparison for Dahlin in terms of skillset is Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators.
If the Rangers had the left side of their defense for the foreseeable future as Dahlin, Skjei and Brendan Smith they would be in good shape. The key to this overhaul of the team must be re-designing the defensive corps around defenseman who can transition to offense. The inability to efficiently exit the defensive zone is the biggest problem the team currently has.
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This, in turn, means that the Rangers get pinned in the defensive zone for extended periods of time. Defenseman like Dahlin and Skjei are the evolution of what the NHL defenseman is capable of. Improving through a fire sale is not an exact science, but every loss the rest of the way improves the team’s odds at landing Dahlin.