New York Rangers: Was the return for Ryan McDonagh fair?

After much anticipation, the New York Rangers finally announced that the organization had traded Captain Ryan McDonagh, along with J.T. Miller, to the Tampa Bay Lightning. We’ll take a quick look at the return to see if it was equitable.

Without much preamble, I’m going to say that right now, the New York Rangers received a fair return for Ryan McDonagh.

However, the question “was the return for Ryan McDonagh fair?” is a more nuanced question that deserves a more nuanced answer.

First, the trade that sent McDonagh to Tampa also included J.T. Miller as well. The return from the Lightning must take this into consideration as well.

As many have argued, one could divide the trade into two transactions. The first is J.T. Miller for Vladislav Namestnikov one-for-one, and the package of picks and prospects for McDonagh, the other.

This makes sense to an extent as Miller and Namestnikov are both young, pending restricted free agents who can play both center and wing and have similar production. If we accept this premise, then we look to see if the package for McDonagh was fair, and I think it was.

However, that doesn’t mean that I am happy about that return. We’ll take a look at the return and despite getting fair value for McDonagh, why I’m not satisfied with the trade.

The return

Once a trade is announced, everyone (myself included) instantly wants to know who “won” the trade. Did Tampa Bay’s general manager Steve Yzerman fleece the Rangers again? Or were they perhaps the ones who overpaid?

The difficulty in assessing victors and losers in a trade is that the vast majority, this one included, take years before a proper evaluation can be made.

Furthermore, evaluating trades with non-NHL prospects is an even trickier proposition. Most fans, who are unfamiliar with all but a team’s top prospects, understandably rely on trusted sources to get their information regarding unknown prospects. With the lack of detailed data being gathered below the NHL level, it falls to subjective evaluations to determine the value of a prospect.

Since I am not qualified to provide a competent analysis on the two prospects who were the major parts of this trade, Brett Howden and Libor Hajek, I will refer you to someone I do trust.

The short version is that the Rangers received two solid prospects. Howden is projected to be a good third line center with the potential to be a second line center. Similarly, Hajek appears to be a future second pairing defenseman although his ceiling appears to be no higher than a fourth defenseman.

The Rangers also received the Lightning’s first-round pick this year (2018) and a conditional second-round draft pick in 2019. In the event the Lightning hoist the Stanley Cup this season or next, the 2019 pick becomes a first rounder.

In a vacuum, two ‘B’ prospects and one or two (albeit late) first round picks is an acceptable and fair return for McDonagh.

There’s always a “but”

As I argued in our recent roundtable, my issue with this trade is that Jeff Gorton didn’t receive enough. That may sound greedy or homer-ish of me, but hear me out.

This is not specific to just Tampa, I hoped for and expected a slight overpay from any trading partner. The Rick Nash trade is an example of a job well done by Gorton in this aspect.

Time is a factor regarding deals like this. The benefit of acquiring a player at the trade deadline, as opposed to at the NHL draft, is that the team will then have (likely) two playoff runs with their new acquisition. This is exactly what the Rangers did in acquiring Martin St. Louis and Keith Yandle in recent years.

That alone should increase the cost slightly. In addition, McDonagh is an unquestionable number one defenseman; in order to obtain premium assets, you must pay a premium price. This is without even mentioning the steal of a contract McDonagh has: $4.7MM against the cap. It is so low that none of it was retained by the Rangers. All of the above can justify Gorton asking for a higher price in return.

As the saying goes: “Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you’ll land among the stars.” It appears that that’s what Gorton did here. He was shooting for the moon, in this case, an ‘A’ prospect like Mikhail Sergachev or Brayden Point. Instead, he only landed amongst the stars, Howden and Hajek. The problem with this ideal is that everyone remembers that the US successfully landed on the Moon in 1969; the Soviet attempts aren’t nearly as heralded.

The world or nothing

After trading McDonagh, the Rangers are indeed going into full rebuild mode. I cannot see them being competitive next season without a bonafide number one defenseman. (However, winning the draft lottery would be another story).

In order to execute this rebuild correctly, one can’t make impulsive moves or compromises. This trade felt like a bit of both and had echoes of the Derek Stepan trade. Gorton did not need to move McDonagh now, he could have at the draft, next deadline, or not at all.

Related: The Rick Nash trade was a great one for the Rangers

Tampa wasn’t willing to move Sergachev or Point for Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators. Logically, they then wouldn’t be moved for McDonagh either, even with Miller included. Gorton needed to be adamant about receiving a prospect with elite potential in this deal. If one wasn’t on the table, then he needed to walk away.

Elaborating on my metaphor from the roundtable (apologies in advance to non-baseball fans), Gorton needed to smoke a no-doubt, bases-clearing bomb into the outfield bleachers. Instead, he only hit a double.

Now, a double is a good hit; it puts a runner in scoring position and can drive in runs if anyone is on base. Unfortunately, no one was on base and there are two outs. He’s now in scoring position yes, but he needs to deliver with his next batter. An out here sends you all the way back to square one. Hit a home run with this deal instead and you already have something in the bank.

Next: New York Rangers: It’s always darkest before the dawn

Gorton won’t have to wait long, as his next trip to the plate will come at the NHL Entry Draft in June. He must push this run that he’s established across the plate or else the trade of Ryan McDonagh will go down as a failure.

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