New York Rangers: 6 players on the bubble for next year’s team
The New York Rangers chances of qualifying for the postseason are slim to none. On the bright side, there is always the opportunity to improve the team in the offseason.
This season has not gone the way the Rangers front office or players in the locker room expected. A team that will likely finish in the bottom ten in the entire league would not have signed Kevin Shattenkirk last July. A contending team under most circumstances wouldn’t trade four of its best players in the span of a week.
However, the wheels came off of the team in late December when Henrik Lundqvist could no longer cover all of the team’s warts. The atrocious possession team in front of him surrenders upwards of 55% of the shots in every game. That is simply an unsustainable formula to win in today’s NHL.
Part of retooling the team this off-season is going to be reshaping the team around possession positive players that can drive play. In fact, the Rangers have already acquired two: Ryan Spooner and Vladislav Namestnikov. Of course, both of their Corsi For Percentages (52.9 and 52.5 respectively) are inflated from playing on strong possession teams.
This means that there are several familiar faces that are no guarantee to make next year’s NHL roster. There are varying levels to this, a player like Vinni Lettieri who is a fringe NHL player is technically on the bubble, but does not have a serious path to the NHL next year.
The second longest tenured player on the Rangers is a defenseman from 10 years ago and doesn’t fit the team’s style.
If Marc Staal didn’t have the series of several career-altering injuries it is a true wonder as to what kind of player he might be today. After almost ten full seasons in the NHL, and more than a 100 playoff games, he cannot physically keep up with today’s game. The elephant in the room that NHL teams are still failing to recognize is that a defensive defenseman is a defenseman that can’t contribute on offense.
One dimensional players in a salary cap league have a hard time sticking on. Take former Ranger Brandon Pirri, who’s lone ability is as a power play specialist for example. He has failed to stick on with any team because he has limited functionality even though he has a 20 goal season. Staal as a defenseman is in the same vein. Anytime the puck comes to Staal’s stick in the offensive zone, the play dies.
What the front office’s plan for next season may ultimately determine if Staal survives the buyout window. The Rangers considered buying out Staal’s contract last summer and instead opted to trade Derek Stepan to free up cap space. If the team plans on taking a full season to rebuild, the veteran defenseman will likely stick around. However, if the plan is to compete next year, Staal is on the fence.
The Rangers have a bevy of young defenseman who could compete for a spot down the left side. This will be another tough pill to swallow in a long line of tough decisions. Giving valuable NHL ice time to a player with limited upside on the wrong side of 30 doesn’t sound like an effective model for a rebuild.
The free agent hype that surrounded Vesey two summers ago has proven to just be hype.
Forward Jimmy Vesey’s tenure with the New York Rangers has been inconsistent because of the environment around him. During his rookie season, he was shuffled around and often buried on the fourth line. Expecting a player to generate offense with Tanner Glass and Oscar Lindberg as his linemates proved to be to much for the Harvard grad.
This year though, he has been given a grand opportunity to prove himself. The team’s terrible run of injuries and the subsequent fire sale have shifted Vesey into an even more prominent role. The problem is that he cannot consistently create his own quality scoring chances. This isn’t an indictment of Vesey as a person, but of the hype that surrounds college free agents. The recruiting process attached a certain level of expectation that has failed to be met.
The Rangers have a slew of restricted free agents that need extensions this summer. Amongst them is Vesey, who is on pace to slightly miss his offensive production from last season. A player like Vesey is not hard to find on the free agent market every summer. A forward who can post between 20-30 points and be a below average possession player is not a marquee target.
There is also the problem of a logjam at the forward position within the organization. With the addition of Spooner and Namestnikov, as well as Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson in Hartford, the team needs spots in the top six. Vesey may not be worth giving an extension to come July. The Rangers may be better off trying to shop him for a pick at the draft or submitting a tender offer.
The throw in on the Nick Holden trade has been clunky and out of his element with New York.
This may be stating the obvious, but Rob O’Gara does not look like an NHL defenseman. Now, the Rangers front office may have known this when they traded for him last month. Prior to being traded to the Rangers, O’Gara had just 25 NHL games under his belt, so maybe he wasn’t in the cards for next season.
On the ice thus far, O’Gara is playing like a 6’4 215 pound defenseman, slow. Like in the case of Staal, he is also a liability any time the play is in the offensive zone. The play goes no further than O’Gara because he simply does not have a good shot. Even worse than Staal, he’s a liability in the defensive zone as well.
The only serious path for O’Gara to make next year’s team is as the seventh defenseman. More likely than that though is heavy minutes down in the AHL with the Hartford Wolfpack. As the eighth defenseman in case of an emergency, for one or two games, he’s passable.
The Rangers were sorely mistaken if they were expecting a jump of some kind from O’Gara with some new digs. There is even an argument that they’d be better off with the next player on this list on the team.
The curious case of Brendan Smith has befuddled Rangerstown to the point of fatigue.
Just what went wrong for Smith over the summer? Last season following his acquisition at the trade deadline he was a lights-out shot suppressor. The pair of Brady Skjei and Smith was the team’s best in the postseason by a large margin.
The Rangers were impressed with Smith enough to give him a four-year extension at 4.35 million per season with a limited no trade clause. The organization instead got a defenseman with no confidence in his game or any upside what so ever. In his 44 games this season in the NHL, Smith has been outright lost on the ice. Even the most simple breakout passes are too much to ask of the veteran defenseman.
The Rangers have a number of defenseman on the NHL roster and in the pipeline that are competing for spots in the lineup next year. Right now, the aforementioned O’Gara is ahead of Smith in the pecking order. The Rangers waived Smith back in January and not a single team put in a waiver claim on the defenseman, that’s how low his value is right now.
TNow, there is a path in which Smith commits to getting his mind right this summer and is on the team next season. He was in the opening night lineup this season and has shown the ability to be a quality player in the NHL in the past. If Smith does not get it together, he might want to get used to riding the bus in the AHL.
The Rangers backup goaltender at the start of this season may be pushed out by injury and bad luck.
Coming into this season not much was expected from Ondrej Pavelec as the backup to Lundqvist. Start maybe 25 games at the absolute most and post a 500 record in those games would have been perfectly sufficient in an ideal world. The team’s poor start at the beginning of the season and Head Coach Alain Vigneualt’s stubbornness kept Pavelec out of games he probably should have started.
In just ten starts this season, the goaltender has an unsightly four wins. Now, this isn’t all on the goaltender as his .910 save percentage and 3.01 goals against average are okay for a backup. Behind a terrible team he’s played mediocre at best. This is a bad recipe for a player on a one year contract.
On top of the bad circumstances, Alexandar Georgiev has posted great numbers. In three starts with the Rangers, the 22-year-old has a .930 SV% and a 2.70 GAA. For a goalie’s first stab try in the NHL at only 22 he has potential.
If the Rangers want to skimp even further for next season, Georgiev is a cheaper alternative. The chances of a second act with New York are slim for Pavelect. In his entire career he has never been anything more than a replacement level goalie. Those are fairly easy to come by and ones like Georgiev, with room to grow, are a better investment.
If Cody McLeod plays one game for the New York Rangers next season I will buy his jersey
In the most obvious case of wrong player, wrong team, wrong system, Cody McLeod sticks out like a sore thumb. It is hard for a player to be as in effective as the grinder is during his minimal ice time. McLeod is the least used Ranger at just 8:42 of ice time per game. This is Vigneault’s Titanic, and he’s going to back up and hit the iceberg every night with his first mate McLeod on deck.
The minimal upside that McLeod brings, checking and the occasional fight aren’t useful. The modern NHL requires four lines capable of being deployed in any of the three zones. Players like McLeod put their line at an immediate disadvantage. The reason the forward has so many hits in such little ice time is because what time he is on the ice, the other team has the puck.
Now, giving McLeod an inside man, let’s say Vigneault is inexplicably retained following this disaster of a season. There are still several players that would logically be ahead of him on the pecking order.
Next: Ty Ronning signs entry level contract
Part of fixing the team going forward is weeding out players like McLeod. The modern enforcer is a skill player with the ability to occasionally throw down if need be. The ideal model of this is Wayne Simmonds. Definitely not a forward like McLeod that can’t contribute anything with the puck.