New York Rangers: The rebuild won’t be completed overnight
By Steve Paulus
New York Ranger fans need to be patient. The rebuild is going to take a while, but the draft will certainly help.
The New York Rangers have embarked on a massive and needed overhaul. Recognizing that the 2017-18 team was flawed and doomed to an early playoff exit was a major step forward for the organization. By trading assets the Rangers have stockpiled a boatload of 2018 draft picks and prospects and look to rebuild their farm system in a hockey heartbeat. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that while the Rangers seem to have a solid roster, the last few losses clearly show how inferior the Rangers are to elite NHL teams. It’s going to take more than adding Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil to the current roster to get them over the hump.
Expectations From the Entry Draft
Three first round draft picks in 2018 is a good start, but what are the odds of those picks having an immediate impact? Not very good. We looked at five years of the the NHL Entry Drafts (2012-2017) to see how long it took for first round picks to make it to the NHL.
Out of 150 players drafted, only 18 of them made it to the NHL in their draft year. Of those 18, eight were first or second overall selections. 44 players made it to the NHL in their second year. Only 41 percent of first round selections made to the NHL within two years . Ranger fans, that means you will probably be seeing those 2018 first round draft picks making their debuts on Broadway in the 2020-21 season at the earliest.
The Good News
First round draft picks tend to become productive NHL players. For example, 11 of 30 players from the 2016 draft are already in the NHL. That number improves to 19 out of 30 from 2015. Nearly the entire 2014 first round has made it with only three players still in the AHL. 26 out of 30 first rounders in 2013 and 27 of 30 from 2012 made it to the big leagues.
Even though the picks the Rangers acquired from Tampa and Boston will be late first rounders, the team is pretty much guaranteed that the players they select will make it to Broadway at some point in time.
A Crystal Ball
When can we expect the Rangers to be in contention again? In today’s NHL, the salary cap has enabled teams to turn themselves around pretty quickly. With a youthful core and the addition of youngsters like Andersson, Chytil, Neal Pionk and John Gilmour the team is off to a good start. But don’t look to the draft picks to affect the turnaround anytime soon, it is the trade deadline acquisitions that should have a more timely impact.
Libor Hajek, Brett Howden and Ryan Lindgren were all drafted in 2016. With 2018-19 their third year from the draft, it’s time for all three to begin to make the leap to the NHL. All three will probably start next season in Hartford, but by 2019-20 they should become factors. Yegor Rykov was also drafted in 2016, but is under contract to SKA St. Petersburg for one more season. He should be an NHL-ready defenseman by 2019.
Targeting the 2019-20 Season
What will the 2019-20 season look like? Henrik Lundqvist will be 37 when the season starts and still under contract. Igor Shestyorkin should have made the move to North America from KHL to begin shouldering some of the workload. If still on the team the forwards in their prime will be Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Pavel Buchnevich, Kevin Hayes, Ryan Spooner, Vladislav Namestnikov, Jimmy Vesey and Jesper Fast. On defense, the core will be a 30 year old Kevin Shattenkirk along with Brady Skjei and Tony DeAngelo, Pionk and Gilmour.
Supplement those players with Ty Ronning, Sean Day, Howden, Lindgen, Rykov and Hajak and the picture gets better and better.
The Draft Lottery
The Rangers should finish about eighth from the bottom of the NHL standings this season. If so, they stand a slight chance of moving up into the top three though the odds are they will stay put.
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If they do win the lottery and get a top three pick the odds are they will get a bonafide NHL star who will be with the team within two years and that means definitely by 2019-20.
Next: Everyone needs to relax about Brady Skjei
Patience Needed
If the last month has been trying for Ranger fans, 2018-19 promises to be more of the same. Without a doubt, Jeff Gorton will try to build a competitive team and hopefully the Rangers will win more than they lose. Re-signing Rick Nash to a favorable contract or inking Ilya Kovalchuk to mentor the young Russians would certainly help. It’s important for fans to be patient with the knowledge that it is all about the future and that future begins for real in 2019.