The Rangers came from behind to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins in OT Tuesday night. The victory might have severely hurt the Rangers odds of moving up in the entry draft and it also made fans wonder, what if?
By beating the Penguins, the New York Rangers moved ahead of the Islanders and into a virtual tie with Carolina in the standings. Still seven points out of a playoff spot the victory will do little to propel the team into the playoffs, but it had a major impact on the odds of moving up in the NHL Entry Draft. The Rangers now have the 11th worst record in the NHL. With every point, the team moves farther and farther away from drafting an impact player in June.
As a lifelong Ranger fan, I’ve never been as conflicted at a game. After two periods of domination by Pittsburgh, the Rangers looked dead in the water. Down 2-0 and being outshot 27-16 it looked like a sure loss. Hello lottery pick!
But the dreaded two goal lead was not enough for Pittsburgh as Chris Kreider started the comeback with a power play goal with eleven minutes left in the third period. The rest of the game was a blur as the Rangers tied the score, fell behind again and tied again.
A Penalty Shot
With visions of a top pick in the NHL Entry Draft going up in smoke, the hockey gods intervened. With 10.7 seconds left in the game, Alexandar Georgiev was called for dislodging the net within the last two minutes of the game and Pittsburgh was awarded a penalty shot. Huh? Who knew about that rule? Here is the official language in the NHL Rulebook:
"“If by reason of insufficient time in the regular playing time or by reason of penalties already imposed, the minor penalty assessed to a player for deliberately displacing his own goal post cannot be served in its entirety within the regular playing time of the game or at any time in overtime, a penalty shot shall be awarded against the offending team.”"
I know, I know. Reading the rule book, it sure seems like they could have imposed the minor penalty and it would have carried over into overtime. At any rate, Evgeni Malkin took the penalty shot that would end a dramatic comeback and a great game with a result that wouldn’t hurt the Rangers draft position. The Rangers would lose, but at least they tried.
But Georgiev made the save and the Rangers won in overtime.
The Kreider Injury
The biggest reason for this win was the play of one man, Chris Kreider. He had a goal and four assists and had numerous other opportunities. His play was dynamic, his leadership and skill were outstanding. Kreider demonstrated why he is so important to this Ranger team and raised the question, what if he hadn’t been injured?
The last game Kreider played before going down with a blood clot was the 1-0 shootout win against Washington on December 27. With that win, Rangers had a 20-13-4 record, notching 60 percent (44) of a possible 74 points. They were in third place in the Metropolitan Division and were on a roll, having gone 19-8-2 in the preceding 29 games.
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Kreider missed 24 games. The record while he was out? 7-16-1. They only gained 31 percent of a possible 48 points.
He returned to the lineup on February 23 and has played in ten games. The record? 5-3-2. That means a 25-16-6 record with Kreider in the lineup as the Rangers notched 53 percent of the available points.
The key date this season was Thursday, February 8. Sitting in last place with a record of 25-24-5 and 55 points, the team announced to the world that it was time to rebuild. Favorite players would be gone and the season was a lost cause.
What If
But what if Kreider had not suffered his injury and the Rangers had maintained their 53 percent point pace? As of February 8, the Kreider-less Rangers had gone 5-11-1, gaining only 32 percent (11) of 34 available points. With Kreider they would have had 20 points instead of only 11. That nine point difference would have given them 64 points and they would have been in second place in the Metropolitan Division, three points behind Washington and ahead of the Penguins and Devils.
Second place would have meant no rebuild letter to the fans. There would have been no seven game losing streak dropping them to the depths of the NHL standings. The Rangers would have been buyers instead of sellers at the deadline. Rick Nash, Ryan McDonagh and Michael Grabner would still be skating on Broadway. Even more important, today, the Rangers would have fourteen more points in the standings giving them 85 points, good for a tie with Pittsburgh and Washington for first place.
Yes, But…
Without the rebuild, Neal Pionk and John Gilmour wouldn’t be making an impression as future blue chippers. The Rangers would have only their picks in the Entry Draft (if they hadn’t traded any for assets at the deadline). Rick Nash, Michael Grabner and Nick Holden would walk away after the season with nothing in return. The Rangers would be facing a huge salary issue with Ryan McDonagh in a year.
Reality
Okay, enough speculation. Chris Kreider is a good hockey player and the numbers show how important he is to the team, but to assume that the team would have kept winning at that 60% rate is pure speculation. Kevin Shattenkirk had to have knee surgery. Ryan McDonagh, Marc Staal, Pavel Buchnevich and Jimmy Vesey all suffered assorted injuries.
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But there is no doubt that with Kreider in the lineup, they would have a better record. If the Rangers had been in a playoff spot on February 8 is it possible that the dramatic decision to tear it down and rebuild would have been made? Probably not, the fan base wouldn’t have stood for it.
Ultimately, the rebuild is probably the right decision. But the irony is that but for a blood clot, it might have never happened.