New York Rangers: Comparing Pionk’s rookie numbers to other defensemen’s

Rookie defenseman Neal Pionk has made strong first impression on the New York Rangers. Though he just scored his first NHL goal, Pionk has 14 points in 21 games and averages nearly 22 minutes per game. Do the Rangers have a potential star in the making on their hands?

While we don’t know how Neal Pionk will develop just yet, we can compare his NHL debut to those of other prominent defenders. We have only about a quarter season’s worth of information to work with. That doesn’t make measuring Pionk’s early success impossible, but it does mean we’re dealing with large margins of error.

At 22, Pionk is also a bit older than some other standout defenders were during their first tastes of NHL action. There’s not a lot Pionk can do about that as an undrafted free agent signed out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth. Still, it’s another factor to consider.

The small sample plus the age difference problem leave us with a number of imperfect ways to tackle this question. So let’s try them all.

If this trend continues

Pionk will finish this season with 28 games of NHL experience at most. Despite only playing 21 games, Pionk sits tied for eighth in points among rookie defenders. In fact, Pionk leads all rookie defensemen to play at least 10 NHL games this year in points per game.

It would be fun to extrapolate Pionk to an 82-game, 55-point season, but it’s not that simple. Pionk spent 48 games in the AHL this season and totaled only 17 points there.

One solution is to Frankenstein’s monster together Pionk’s first pro season and credit him with a solid 31 points in 69 games. That doesn’t tell the whole story either, though. Pionk struggled adjusting to pro hockey before catching fire to the tune of 11 points over his last 19 AHL games.

Clearly, something clicked for Pionk over his last 40 games. It’s still not a definitive sample size, but at least it fills in the picture some more. So while we can’t put him up with Mikhail Sergachev and Charlie McAvoy yet, we can see him possibly closing the gap.

Of course, both Sergachev and McAvoy are several years younger than Pionk. That’s no slight against Pionk, but their relative youth gives them more potential room for growth.

Looking across the Hudson

While Sergachev and McAvoy make poor Pionk measuring sticks, another high scoring rookie makes perfect sense: Will Butcher of the rival Devils profiles very close to Pionk.

While Butcher did not go undrafted like Pionk, he opted to eschew the Colorado Avalanche for college free agency. Just like Pionk, Butcher is a bit undersized as they both skate at around 190 pounds. Plus, they are about the same age (Pionk is six months younger).

Pionk’s 14 points in 21 games compare favorably to Butcher’s 37 points in 74 games. The comparison shifts a little depending on the weight given to Pionk’s AHL time and Butcher’s age. Regardless of how we handle those factors, however, they mirror each other fairly well.

Let’s find Pionk’s peers

We can also match Pionk against other relatively recent blue liners to sign as amateur free agents. Like Pionk, Dan Boyle went undrafted and made his NHL debut at age 22, when he posted eight points in 22 games. Boyle didn’t play a full NHL season until age 24 and didn’t breakout until a 53-point season at age 26.

More recently, Torey Krug played three NHL games across his age 20 and 21 seasons before scoring 40 points in 79 games at 22. Aside from the obvious sample size difference, Pionk’s NHL production at age 22 tracks closely with Krug’s.

Brian Rafalski’s career started later than anyone’s previously mentioned. Like Krug, Boyle, and Pionk, Rafalski went undrafted as an undersized defenseman. Unlike the others, Rafalski spent a few years playing professionally in Finland before the NHL came calling.

At the age of 26, Rafalski finally reached the NHL and scored 32 points in 75 games while helping the Devils win the Stanley Cup. He improved on those rookie totals and scored between 40-60 points every year for the next decade. Ranger fans don’t want dwell on the 99-00 Devils, but we won’t complain if Pionk produces like Rafalski did.

Fun with Ranger history

Neal Pionk isn’t the only prominent recent Ranger rookie defender. Just last season, Brady Skjei scored 39 points in 80 games at age 22. Skjei’s offense ran into a sophomore slump this season, but the entire roster has struggled this year.

To go further back, we’re going to use Hockey Reference’s era adjusted point totals. Adjusted numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re better than comparing raw totals across eras. To set a baseline, Pionk has 15 adjusted points in 21 games.

Ryan McDonagh didn’t show much offense during his rookie season. At age 21, he scored 10 adjusted points in 40 games. McDonagh did jump up to 35 adjusted points in 82 games the year after, though.

Brian Leetch is both the most fun and unfair player from Ranger history to compare to Pionk. Like Pionk, Leetch started his NHL career with an abbreviated season. Leetch joined the Rangers for the tail-end of 87-88 and skated in 17 games.

During his 17-game opening act, Leetch scored 12 adjusted points (14 actual). Those 12 in 17 ring awfully near to Pionk’s 15 in 21. Let’s not retire Pionk’s number 44 yet, however, because Leetch began his NHL career at 19, not 22 like Pionk.

One season later, Leetch set the NHL rookie record for goals by a defenseman with 23. Like I said, it’s a fun and unfair comparison.

Other Ranger greats acquit themselves similarly well. A 20-year-old Brad Park scored 26 adjusted points in 54 games. Ron Greschner debuted at 20 as well and potted 39 adjusted points in 70 games.

To sum up

Since his promotion from Hartford, Neal Pionk has changed the dynamic on the Rangers’ blue line. Though not a finished product, Pionk gives reason for hope after a mostly lost season on the back end. He didn’t take the most conventional route to the NHL, but plenty of smaller defenders had great NHL careers after going undrafted.

Next: New York Rangers: Moving Up in the Draft

It’s impossible to watch Pionk’s run of production and not dream about what he could become. While we don’t know what the future holds for him, Pionk already achieved something important with his play down the stretch. He has locked down a roster spot for next year’s team.