New York Rangers: A week left in the season and a draft position update

With only five games left in the season  the Rangers still have a shot at the seventh overall position, but only one point separates four teams battling for that position.

The Rangers are in a dogfight with the New York Islanders, Edmonton Oilers and Chicago Blackhawks to finish with the 7th worst record in the league and a chance at a top draft pick. The odds of moving up in the draft have been released and the team in seventh place will have a definite advantage over the team in tenth place.

The Standings

Here is where the four teams stand after games on Thursday, March 29.

Tiebreakers are as follows.  First comes ROW.  If teams are tied in ROW, then head-to-head record is used. In the category, the Rangers are over Edmonton, the Islanders are over the Rangers and Chicago is over the Rangers.

The key to the finish will be the remaining schedule for all four of these teams.

New York Rangers

Games Remaining:  Five (one home, four road): Tampa, at Carolina, at New Jersey, at Islanders, at Philadelphia

With only one game left at the Garden and their final four games on the road, the Rangers have a tough schedule to contend with. Their last home game against Tampa will not be easy as the Lightning have  a lot to play for. The Lightning were been knocked out of first place by Boston for the first time since October 18 and Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller will be making their return to Madison Square Garden.

The next day the Rangers play in in Raleigh against a Hurricanes team with nothing at stake. They are on the road to New Jersey and finish the season in Philadelphia in games that should be chock full of playoff implications. In between those games, their tilt in Brooklyn will be huge. The Blueshirts haven’t won in Brooklyn since 2014-15 and Islander-Rangers is always a grudge match. This game could determine draft position.

Edmonton Oilers

Games Remaining: Four  (two home, two road):  at Calgary, at Minnesota, Vegas, Vancouver

The Oilers have four games left and none of them are must-wins for any of the teams. Calgary  and Vancouver are out of the playoffs while Minnesota and Vegas will be playing to stay healthy.   The Oilers have been playing well (not withstanding their last loss to the Canucks). Most important, Connor McDavid has a chance to win the Art Ross Trophy so they have the best player in the league with something to play for.

New York Islanders

Games Remaining: Five (three  home, two road):  Toronto, at New Jersey, Philadelphia, Rangers, at Detroit

The Islanders have been a horror show. They have won only three out of their last 17 games and have been outscored 65-46.  They have five games left (three home, two away) and most of them will be tough. Toronto, firmly in third place, doesn’t have much to play for, but they are a better team.  New Jersey and Philadelphia will be fairly desperate. The Rangers game will be a battle and their last game of the season is a meaningless tilt in Detroit.

Chicago Blackhawks

Games Remaining: Four (one home, three road):  at Colorado, at St Louis, St. Louis, at Winnipeg

With only four games left and only one of them a home game, the Hawks will have a tough time playing Colorado, then St. Louis twice. All three games have to be considered must-wins for the Avalanche and Blues. Their final game of the season will be in Winnipeg against a Jets team preparing for the playoffs.

Predictions

The one team with a solid shot at finishing with a better record than the Rangers is Edmonton.  The Islanders are unpredictable and Chicago has the toughest schedule. It looks like a ninth place finish is in the cards, but with a lucky bounce here and a upset there, seventh place is still reachable.

Draft Lottery Odds

The NHL released the odds for the 2018 NHL Draft lottery. Circle your calendars. The ping pong balls will be drawn in Toronto on Saturday, April 28. Here are the odds in the positions the Rangers could finish with the percentages for the last two years as well.

Note that there will be three drawings with the odds changing proportionately depending on how the prior drawing goes. Theoretically, your odds should get better each round (if a team below in the standings get the top pick).

Next: Keeping Hayes over Miller was the right choice

And if Ranger fans really want to get depressed, consider this. The Islanders have their own first round pick and the pick from Calgary they acquired in the Travis Hamonic deal. Calgary currently has the 12th worst record in the league so the Isles have basically doubled their odds of moving into the top three. Thanks to Flames General Manager Brad Treliving and President Brian Burke for not making that pick a lottery protected one.