New York Rangers: The difference between a rebuild and a retool
All signs point to the New York Rangers trying to compete right away. Between General Manager Jeff Gorton’s comments at breakup day and the rumored Ilya Kovalchuk signing there is a lot to be excited about.
The team’s front office did not take missing the postseason for the first time in eight years lightly. At breakup day, the general manager said “I don’t think you should be playing in the NHL if it’s not about winning.” Further, Gorton said that “everyone in that room should be about winning.” The Rangers will not become the Buffalo Sabres under Gorton’s watch.
The effects of losing in the long term are cancerous to an organization. The Sabres long term losing has taken a toll on the players in the dressing room. At Buffalo’s breakup day, Ryan O’Reilly spoke about how losing has put a strain on his love for hockey. That’s one of the best players in the entire world questioning what he does for a living because of losing.
This brings up the fundamental question: what is the right way to go about constructing a hockey team over time. Buffalo has opted to bottom out in hopes of accumulating top ten picks that will eventually translate to winning. This puts a lot of faith in the lottery system, something the Rangers will be reliant on this year.
New York has top ten picks in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1998 and 1999. Of those picks, Pavel Brendl, Jamie Lundmark, and Manny Malhotra, none of the three made any impact with the Rangers. This is why it is vital that the team hit a home run with their pick this season.
The draft
The Rangers two first round picks from last year, Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil, were both impressive during their brief NHL stints as 18-year-olds. However, neither was ready for the NHL out of training camp and it hurt the team’s depth. When the team selected Andersson eighth overall, he was expected to slide right in and replace Derek Stepan.
Expecting an 18-year-old who had never played in North America to jump to the NHL was probably a stretch. This year, the team will likely have a better pick in the draft. There’s a 20% chance that New York selects in the top three. If the Rangers luck into one of those picks in the lottery, they would likely select a player that would be ready to slide in right away and contribute.
The team’s current prospect pool has no top end players with the exception of Chytil. The rest of their prospects, Andersson, Brett Howden, Libor Hajek, Ty Ronning and Ryan Lindgren all project as middle or lower pair players. This leads me to believe that the front office will look to jumpstart the “rebuild,” with established veterans.
Shot in the arm
The rumored Kovalchuk signing is a clear sign that the team has a certain vision in mind for next season. This year, the team lacked high end skill. The Rangers are a team with good but not great players. The team’s only elite talent is Lundqvist and it’s been that way for some time. This offseason, the Rangers have ample opportunity to add from outside the organization.
The headliner unrestricted free agent this summer is New York Islander all-star John Tavares who will likely command north of $11 million per season on the open market. The Rangers will do their due diligence and would be crazy not to at least make an offer. It goes without saying, Tavares would easily be the best player the team has featured in more than ten years.
The Islander center is among the long shot possibilities for the Rangers. On the other hand, the big cloud over this summer’s NHL draft is Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson. The two time Norris Trophy winner desperately wants out of a toxic situation and was close to being moved at the deadline. The Rangers would have to part with some of their first round picks and possibly a roster player or two. If New York were to add Karlsson, the team’s biggest weakness, defense, would become a strength. A top three of Brady Skjei, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Karlsson would be amongst the best in the league.
What it all means
This is all hypotheticals and suppositions based on the context of the current situation. The Rangers have almost $30 million in cap space and several major holes in their lineup. Combining the two means that the team won’t just sit idly by.
Furthermore, the team is running out of time with Lundqvist between the pipes. The Rangers have three more years of the Swedish goaltender on his current contract and he will be 40 years old by the end of the deal. If the organization is committed to Lundqvist, they have to field a competitive team next season.
Next: What went wrong this season: Injuries
However, there is an outside chance that the team continues to strip mine it’s NHL roster for trade assets. The team could decide to bottom out again next year and look to pick up another top ten pick in the draft and waste a season of Lundqvist. But, this is New York, and as the Islanders can testify, people stop showing up when you struggle.