New York Rangers what went wrong: The team overestimated its own talent

The New York Rangers expected to compete last season, however, the team collapsed by January.

In theory, the Rangers should have been a better team this past season. Comparing the roster to the team from the year before, there should have been a marked improvement. The forward group was going to be bolstered with the development of key players, the defense featured Kevin Shattenkirk and it was going to be in front of Henrik Lundqvist.

Unfortunately, the team’s projections did not work out. The team’s defense was far worse than the year before even though the personnel was better. When the Rangers front office put together the team for last season, they were counting on certain players to make a jump. The team expected too many players to make a jump all at the same time and that was one of the problems with the team.

In a way, this is the result of all the other issues that the team had last season. This entire series of what went wrong stories have focused on players and coaches not living up to expectations. This is also a risk for next season during the roster construction process.

The front office could again look to players needing to further develop as a big part of the team’s composition.

Shattenkirk’s signing

The biggest upgrade on the roster was Shattenkirk replacing Dan Girardi. The miles had caught up with the veteran defenseman and he was an outright defensive liability. This was a slam dunk decision, Shattenkirk was the prototypical modern NHL defenseman. A defenseman that is able to drive offensive possession without being a defensive liability.

Shattenkirk lasted as a first pair defenseman for the entirety of four periods. Head coach Alain Vigneault did not think the defenseman was holding up well on the first pair. For the remainder of the time, before he got surgery for a torn meniscus, he spent on the second and third pair.

The defenseman signed for $6.65 million per season, you don’t pay bottom pair defenseman that much money. Shattenkirk decided to play through his injury for the entirety of his season and that definitely held him back. However, that was a conscious decision by the defenseman and it’s part of why he did not live up to expectations.

The Rangers expected a first pair defenseman and instead got the shell of Shattenkirk that was playing through injury. If Shattenkirk returns healthy next season, the team will benefit.

DeAngelo trade

This was the biggest risk in the Rangers roster construction last season. The Rangers traded their rock-solid number two center for a pick and Tony DeAngelo. DeAngelo was a first round pick back in 2014 with high offensive upside. Attitude issues non-withstanding, the defenseman has offensive talent. The problem for DeAngelo is that he is an outright disaster in the defensive zone.

The Rangers featured DeAngelo on the third pair on opening night against the Colorado Avalanche. In fact, the 22-year-old defenseman was in the lineup instead of veteran Nick Holden. This, again, was a marked upgrade in talent that did not translate to the team on the ice.

In 32 games with the Rangers this season, DeAngelo continued to only show potential. The defenseman’s passing ability is outright overpowering. In the limited power play time he received, DeAngelo whipped passes around like the quarterback the Rangers desperately need. Yet, his outright atrocious defensive zone play was such a liability it got him sent to the AHL.

There is no way that DeAngelo can continue to struggle as much in the defensive zone if he wants to be a consistent NHL player. Specialty players that can only operate on the power play are extremely niche and have trouble catching on with a team. The Rangers need more from DeAngelo if they’re going to compete next season.

Silly Smith

The most inexplicable drop off in terms of expectation versus reality was defenseman Brendan Smith. The veteran defenseman that was picked up at the trade deadline last season was lights out in the playoffs. Alongside Brady Skjei, the two formed the team’s most formidable defensive pair. Off of that strong postseason performance, the Rangers signed Smith to a four year deal.

The problem was one of mystery for the organization. In his 44 games during the 2017-2018  season, Smith was clueless on the ice. The seven year veteran looked slow and unable to play at the NHL level. The plays developed too fast for him and froze up. There was a clear disparity in play that got Smith sent to the AHL.

This isn’t news, but AHL a defenseman doesn’t get paid $4.35 million per season. The Rangers committed to Smith as a part of the team’s future and he failed them. There is still time for him to figure things out, but it’s hard to imagine him getting back to where he was. The organization expected Smith to be a key contributor but instead got the second coming of Wade Redden.

Too fast too Skjei

The Rangers have a blue chip talent in Skjei. There is no doubt about the defenseman’s skating ability or vision on the ice. The strong rookie season he had was a result of playing on a high PDO% team. PDO is an analytical stat that measures how lucky a team is by adding the team’s save percentage and shooting percentage together. Any number over 100% is considered to be playing than they actually are.

In Skjei’s rookie season, the defenseman had a PDO% of 102.1. This past season, he had a 97.1 PDO%. This means that Skjei’s sophomore slump was reflective of the situation he was put in and not his talent. The defenseman struggled because of what the team was asking him to do. Asking a 23-year-old to go from middle pair defenseman to top guy is a lot to ask for.

So not only did Skjei have to play more minutes against better competition, he had to do it on a bad team. With all of these factors at play, it is not difficult to see why he had a noticeably worse season in terms of both on-ice play and his analytics. Of the four players mentioned, Skjei has the most room to get better because he is still developing as a player.

Next: What if the team doesn't come along next season?

The Rangers will need to be more realistic in the jumps they expect players to make next season if they want to compete. The team as a whole is still fairly young and in the process of growing. The organization cannot try to force things to happen too fast or risk stunting their growth.