With no guarantee that the New York Rangers will win the draft lottery, there has been speculation that Jeff Gorton will try to trade up. How much is the heralded consensus number one pick worth?
Rasmus Dahlin is as close to a sure thing as there can be in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. He is rated the top pick by NHL Central Scouting and every hockey insider, website and news organization in the business. He has been called a “generational” player. The expectation is that he can step right into the NHL and have an immediate impact. According to many, he will be a guaranteed Norris Trophy winner at some point in his career.
Rasmus Dahlin in a Rangers uniform would jump start the rebuild and make the team a playoff contender in 2018-19. He would be the best defenseman to play for the Blueshirts since Brian Leetch. Dahlin’s skating and stick-handling have been compared to that of Leetch by none other than Nicklas Lindstrom, one of the greatest defensemen of all time in an interview in hockeysverige.se.
Okay, if the hype is true shouldn’t Jeff Gorton do everything he can to acquire the future superstar? While the team that draws the top pick will be hard pressed to give it up, can Gorton put together a package that will be impossible to pass up?
How much is too much?
With the Rangers holding three first round draft picks could Gorton offer all three picks for the right to draft Dahlin? Assuming that the Rangers will end up with the eighth pick overall, three top picks would be a tempting opportunity for any rebuilding team to stock up in a hurry.
If a trading partner would not be content to settle for draft picks, what can the Rangers offer in terms of NHL ready talent? Could Filip Chytil and the two first rounders from Boston and Tampa do the trick? What about Chris Kreider, a first (8th pick) and a second rounder? Would a team in need of a goalie be willing to let Dahlin go in exchange for the rights to Igor Shestyorkin, defensive prospect Libor Hajek (acquired from Tampa) and the eighth pick?
Why do it?
There is one undeniable fact in the NHL: in order to win the Stanley Cup, you need a stud defenseman.
Since the lockout, every team except one has had that star defenseman (Drew Doughty on the Los Angeles Kings, Duncan Keith on the Chicago Blackhawks, Kris Letang on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Zdeno Chara on the Boston Bruins are a few examples). The sole exception is the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes who rode 21-year old goalie Cam Ward to an improbable Cup win over a flawed Edmonton Oilers team.
Ask several generations of Ranger fans who tormented the team the most and the most likely answers will be Bobby Orr and Larry Robinson in the 70’s, Denis Potvin in the 80’s and Scott Stevens in the 90’s. Let’s not forget Ray Bourque, Paul Coffey, Scott Niedermayer or Rod Langway.
The risk
The Rangers clearly have a plan. The team has carefully accumulated a slew of draft picks and restocked the prospect pool. They are prepared to deal some of their RFA’s and also sign a few free agents (Kovalchuk, Grabner, Nash). With all of the hype about Dahlin, he still hasn’t played a minute in the NHL and has not had to withstand the pressure of being a “savior” in New York. Putting all of their eggs in the Dahlin basket could be disastrous if he gets injured or fails to excel.
A history lesson
In 55 years of the NHL Entry Draft, a defenseman has been chosen first overall only 14 times. In fact, only 30 percent of the 275 top five picks since the first draft in 1963 have been defensemen. Here are the defensemen who were number one picks:
- Aaron Ekblad, Florida 2014
- Erik Johnson, St. Louis 2006
- Chris Phillips, Ottawa 1996
- Bryan Berard, Ottawa 1995
- Ed Jovanovski, Florida 1994
- Roman Hamrlik, Tampa 1992
- Wendel Clark, Toronto 1985
- Gord Kluzak, Boston 1982
- Rob Ramage, Colorado 1979
- Rick Green, Washington 1976
- Greg Joly, Washington 1974
- Denis Potvin, Islanders 1973
- Rich Pagnutti, Los Angeles 1967
- Barry Gibbs, Boston 1966
Of this group, only Potvin won the Norris Trophy. More important is that he won four Stanley Cups. Of those 14 number one picks, only Rob Ramage and Rick Green joined Potvin as Stanley Cup winners. Most of them had decent NHL careers with only a few (Pagnutti, Joly & Kluzak) as complete busts. Wendel Clark starred for Toronto, but as a forward. Bryan Berard showed star ability, but almost lost his vision in an accident that waylaid his career.
The safe route
The Rangers could hold onto their picks and find a gem later in the draft. Of the seven players who have won the Norris Trophy since the lockout, only Doughty was a top pick (second overall). Other winners include Erik Karlsson (15th), Brent Burns (20th), P.K. Subban (43rd), Lidstrom (53rd), Duncan Keith (54th) and Zdeno Chara (56th).
First round draft possibilities include number of top defensive prospects. They include Adam Boqvist of Sweden, Ty Smith of the WHL, Noah Dobson of the QMJHL, Evan Bouchard of the OHL, Bode Wilde of the US National Development Team and Jet Woo (what a great name!) of the WHL. Finally, there is US-born Quinn Hughes of Michigan, one of three brothers expected to make it to the NHL .
It is very possible that the Rangers could end up drafting two top defensive prospects and still have a pick left over for an offensive star.
Next: Putting the Alain Vigneault era into context
The lottery
Whether the rights to Dahlin will even be in play will depend on who draws the first pick. There are some teams who will never give up the first pick, but there are others who will be open to a deal. In just one week (Saturday, April 28) the draft lottery will be held live on national television. Stay tuned.