Although high draft picks and draft selections are invaluable, they ultimately need to translate.
It is unquestionable that the best way to accumulate talented NHL players is through the entry draft. Of course, the closer to number one a team’s pick, the better talent available. This is why the NHL developed the lottery system in 1995 to discourage organizations from tanking. Even though the league has repeatedly said its franchises don’t tank, there is evidence to the contrary.
The Buffalo Sabres, Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs have all engaged in wasted seasons this decade. All three organizations had tanking bear fruit in the form of elite talent. Jack Eichel, Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews are three of the twenty best players in the entire NHL. For players in this echelon, it was never a question if they were going to make it in the league.
However, it is important to keep the prospect evaluation prospect in relative terms. Just because a player is dominant in juniors, does not mean they’ll be a high end NHL talent. The New York Rangers famously traded up in the 1999 draft and selected forward Pavel Brendl. The forward played a total of 74 games in the NHL for his entire career.
The point being, no one really knows if someone’s raw talent can carry them to the peaks of superstardom until they’re in the moment. Sure, McDavid was a man amongst boys in the OHL for the Barrie Colts, but it wasn’t a guarantee until he got an Oilers sweater on.
“Draft Experts”
The biggest problem with evaluating potential draft picks is criteria for evaluation. Being that different people value different skills in a hockey player, the range can drastically vary. Without a unified code for what a good hockey player is, especially as the eye test and analytics community duke it out, there is little to agree on.
Some talent evaluators see character as part of the process. Is a certain guy going to fit well in the room? Can he be the guy to bring us to the promised land that’ll put the team on his back?
This is why the two month period between the announcement of the draft lottery and the draft itself are so frustrating. None of the experts even know if what they’re saying will turn out to be true. The way talent is evaluated is based all on hypotheticals and what ifs. In some cases, teams will draft players based on just size and expect the rest of the player’s game to develop later.
Ask the Rangers if they’d like the Dylan McIlrath pick back to take Vladimir Tarasenko. I’m sure Glen Sather would be willing to overlook the AHL defenseman for a two time all-star. Point being, there isn’t going to be nor will there ever be a consensus on what player should be drafted where. For much of the league that is further down the board, their respective organizations will have to strategized based on other teams picking ahead of them.
So, don’t go listening to individuals saying that if team x selects player y they’re going to do z. This is a fluid and liquid process that takes years to properly understand. A pick can’t be deemed a success until they’ve made it to the NHL and built a track record. That at minimum takes two years for a player to develop an adequate sample size.
What it means for New York
The Rangers are in the weird position of not being in this part of the draft often. This may make general manager Jeff Gorton inclined to swing for the fences with the number nine pick. Furthermore, if a team ahead of the Rangers makes a perceived reach for a player lower down the board, it changes things.
Would that make Gorton take the best player available even if they don’t fill a position of need? So much of Gorton’s strategy for the draft and offseason is a mystery because of the coach selection process and how close he’s playing things to the chest. The Rangers could find themselves in the lottery next season just as easily as they could be in the postseason.
Yet, it is all relative. The Rangers could take a player that is perceived as high value at nine. This does not mean that a player selected at nine overall will be a NHL talent. There are layers of development that a prospect needs to hit over time. If a team doesn’t properly value a prospect, the perception of the prospect could be skewed by a mistake for better or worse.
Next: The team should hold onto their picks in June
Point being, reserve judgement on a draft selection for at least two or three seasons. Until they reach that point, they’re just a prospect, that’s why they’re thrown in as fodder for armchair G.Ms. If they were more than a prospect, they’d go by name.