New York Rangers: What if the team kept Stralman over Girardi?

SUNRISE, FL – DECEMBER 31: Anton Stralman #6 of the New York Rangers skates with the puck against Aleksander Barkov #16 of the Florida Panthers at the BB&T Center on December 31, 2013 in Sunrise, Florida. (Photo by Jeffrey R. Sanzare/NHLI via Getty Images) /

The New York Rangers chose defenseman Dan Girardi over Anton Stralman back in the offseason of 2014. What if New York made the opposite choice?

Monday morning quarterback is an easy profession. With the benefit of hindsight, almost any choice is easy to second guess. In the case of the Rangers, they’ve had their fair share of gaffs in terms of personnel. During the Henrik Lundqvist era, no one player choice had more impact than choosing Girardi over Stralman.

If the Rangers front office had a do over, there is not much doubt as to the decision. Girardi got a contract extension based on what he had done instead of what he was going to do. This is the cardinal sin of front office management. Signing players out of personal loyalty for service rendered is a recipe for being stuck with bad contracts.

The New York front office bought Girardi out of his six year $5.5 million dollar deal just two years in. However, the Tampa Bay Lightning picked up Stralman following the 2014 season for five years at $4.5 million per season. The Lightning got far more bang for their buck out of their deal.

Rather ironically, Tampa Bay ended up with both defenseman after the 2016-2017 season. Furthermore, with the Lightning, Girardi has thrived in a greatly reduced role than he had with New York.

The Argument

The 2014 season was a magical run for the Rangers, they got as close to the Stanley Cup since 1994. Ultimately, the team fell short of their goal and lost in five games to the Los Angeles Kings. Following that heartbreaking loss, they made several roster decisions that altered their future.

First, the Rangers decided to let Stralman leave in free agency so they could pursue 38-year-old Dan Boyle. This decision was short sighted and a poor attempt at a bandaid fix for a problem. For pretty much the entirety of the Lundqvist era, the Rangers have lacked a true power play quarterback. This has stunted the unit, especially in the post season when offense is at a premium.

The front office determined that a Girardi was going to be the first pair defenseman and Boyle was going to quarter back the power play. In hindsight it was easy to see that the Rangers made the wrong choice.

There was no way that Girardi was going to live up to the contract the Rangers gave him. It was obvious that the defenseman was trending downward at that point. Girardi’s Corsi For Percentage, a stat that measures a player’s team’s share of the shots, decreased each year after the extension.

To add insult to injury, this is in direct contrast to Stralman who’s CF% has been positive his entire career. In Tampa Bay, his CF% has dipped but that is due to him playing a larger role against more difficult competition. This means that the drop in shot share is due to more difficult minutes and not deterioration of talent like Girardi.

What if?

So, let’s say the Rangers choose to let Girardi walk in 2014, removing a trade from the equation. This leaves New York with Ryan McDonagh, Marc Staal, Kevin Klein and John Moore under contract. The team extends Stralman in place of Girardi and still has the cap space to pursue Boyle.

A defense of McDonagh paired with Stralman, Staal paired with Boyle and Klein with Moore would be an improvement on the 2014 defense. Excluding the issue of Staal’s regression, this is a well balanced defense. The one issue would be offensive production, of these six defenseman only McDonagh and Boyle have two way games.

However, switching Girardi out for Stralman would gave given the Rangers amongst the best first pairs in the entire NHL. During the 2013 lockout shortened season, McDonagh and Stralman played a total of 287 minutes together. In this ice time, the pair combined for a CF% of 61.52, meaning that when they were on the ice, the Rangers had that percent of the shots.

In direct comparison to the McDonagh and Girardi pair in the 2014-2015 season, this would be a more than 10% improvement. As a pair, the captain and Girardi had a 47.39 CF% in the 2014-2015 season. However, when McDonagh was not paired with Girardi, his CF% went up to 53.36%.

The butterfly effect

With a top pair of McDonagh and Stralman, the Rangers would have been even better during their President’s trophy season. Furthermore, they’d have saved an average of $2 million per season till 2022 from not buying out Girardi. In addition, New York would have likely had the cap space to retain deadline acquisition Keith Yandle following the 2015-2016 season.

This would have given the Rangers a hypothetical defense of McDonagh, Stralman, Staal, Yandle, Brady Skjei and Tony DeAngelo going into the 2017-2018 season. The group the team did put on the ice would have paled in comparison. from featuring several possession drivers, it takes out a liability like Nick Holden.

On the negative side, this move would have likely prohibited the Rangers from signing defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk during the summer of 2017. The only way New York could have signed the New Rochelle native would have been to buyout Staal. It is unlikely that the team would have made that decision at the time.

Next: Three lessons to learn from the Golden Knights

It was clear that the front office considered Marc Staal more valuable than Derek Stepan because they elected to trade the center. This chain of events would likely have made the Rangers a better overall team. With a better defense, New York probably makes the 2015 Stanley Cup Final for a second consecutive year. It is clear that the front office did not properly value Stralman and it has come back to haunt them over time.

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