New York Rangers: What happens if Lundqvist falls off?

Elite goaltending has spoiled the Rangers for more than a decade. What happens if that goes away?

There some things that are just inevitable in life. Death, taxes and Henrik Lundqvist enabling the New York Rangers to over achieve. The team has failed to give the best player in the history of the franchise a serious contender. In the 13 years Lundqvist has played in New York, he’s had one, maybe two legitimate superstars. Outside of Jaromir Jagr in the twilight of his career and three seasons of Marian Gaborik, it’s been the Lundqvist show.

Yet, somehow, Lundqvist has answered the bell every single time. For more than a decade the goaltender has been the organization’s solution to every single problem. Lundqvist is so good that the team’s roster construction has been flawed. The front office has overlooked entire parts of the team because the goaltending can mask the problem.

Early in the Swede’s career, Lundqvist needed to be perfect every night to win games 2-1. The past few seasons, the defense has been outright terrible, so he just has to give up less than three goals. This mentality of roster construction has put the organization in a precarious position going forward.

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Next season is going to be another challenge for Lundqvist. Can the goaltender stave off father time for one more season?

The roster

For Lundqvist to succeed as he gets older, the front office needs to be smarter. Inexplicably, as he’s aged, the team’s defense has deteriorated to the point of liability. This past season, a brick wall would have struggled for the Rangers. Somehow, Lundqvist dragged the corpse of a playoff team to the eighth worst record in the NHL.

There were games last season where it seemed the goaltender was the only player on the ice. Teams would spend two or three minutes in the Ranger zone before a blown coverage resulted in a goal. If the team can at least improve systemically, the quality of chances for the opposition should drop. In theory, the fewer high danger chances New York surrenders, the less goals they should concede.

On top of improving the defensive system, the team’s defense needs better skaters. Relying on a 31-year-old Marc Staal in a top four role is suicide in the modern NHL. Defenseman can no longer be one dimensional defensive players that struggle with the puck. In addition, New York needs a true number one defenseman or to get Brady Skjei to that level.

At the moment, the Rangers have no proven top pair defenseman outside of Kevin Shattenkirk. If the team’s defensive personnel is better, Lundqvist’s life should be easier.

Drowning

For 13 seasons, Lundqvist has provided elite goaltending. The Swede has compiled 431 career wins including 61 in the postseason. For the longest time, Lundqvist was a life preserver for the team. If the Rangers had the lead, the team would form a defensive shell. Though this was usually a stressful way to play the third period, Lundqvist and the defense got the job done.

However, as time has gone on, the defense has made Lundqvist’s job outright impossible. So instead of having a life preserver, the team has a life preserver with a hole in it. Some of the time it picks up water and sinks. This forces the defense to tread water on its own, which was an out right travesty this past season. Sometimes, it’s still strong enough to keep the team afloat like when Lundqvist pitched two 50 save games on the Western Canada trip.

The point being the team relies on Lundqvist too much for sustained success. Going into his age 36 season, things might capitulate to a point of no return.

Worst Case Scenario

Adding to the complexity of the situation, the Rangers as a whole, are not a good hockey team. They have six restricted free agents, and need a litany of pieces to seriously compete. In addition, the team’s in house fixes are all at least one more season away from being NHL ready. This means that the front office will need to make moves or they will accept a lost season.

So, if the Rangers go into the 2018-2019 season with more or less the same team as last year with Lias Andersson and a free agent defenseman, how much will they really improve? This formula again puts the buck with Lundqvist for success. But, this is an impossible task for a goaltender. There are just too many mistakes for an elite goaltender to cover up.

If Lundqvist is not perfect, the Rangers cannot win most nights. So, if he struggles, and finally has an age related regression, they will be amongst the worst teams in the entire NHL. Last year, the Rangers were the worst Corsi For percentage team in the league. Corsi for measures a team’s percentage of the shots in a game. The Rangers had a 42.9 CF% meaning they were outshot most, if not all nights.

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A bad Lundqvist definitely means a return to the draft lottery next season. With little time left in his career as an elite player, this is a recipe for disaster. The Rangers need to be careful to not frustrating their franchise player as they walk the tight rope of rebuilding and he works on his resume.