New York Rangers: Stash or trash Kevin Hayes?

The New York Rangers have a plethora of Restricted Free Agent centers due new contracts this summer. Principal among them is Kevin Hayes, a divisive player who’s had an up-and-down first four years.

Season in review

Kevin Hayes entered his fourth season with the New York Rangers under a significant amount of pressure. After Derek Stepan was traded to Arizona ahead of the 2017 draft, Hayes was expected to cement himself as both the second-line center and a key shutdown player.

Alain Vigneault did not hesitate to throw Hayes on the ice against other teams’ top lines, giving him tougher minutes than ever before.

Hayes’ overall point production was down this season: 44 points in 76 games. That number falls below his 49 last year and even the 45 points he scored during his rookie season. However, Hayes blew away his career mark in goals, scoring 25.

Not only that, but this season saw a marked decrease in power play time for the Boston product. Hayes’ even-strength point production soared. After scoring 29 and 26 points at even strength the past two seasons, Hayes appeared on the score sheet 33 times in 2017-18. 26 of those points were primary points (goals or first assists), his best mark since his rookie season.

And Hayes did all that while mostly facing the top scoring threats from other teams.

Stats and info

Age entering 2018-19: 26
Seasons with NYR: 4
Previous cap hit: $2.6 million
Games played: 76
Goals: 25
Assists: 19
Points: 44
Corsi For: 45.51% (per Natural Stat Trick)

Projecting the next contract

The New York Rangers have some tough decisions ahead in regards to Hayes. Perhaps his best comparable is Montreal Canadiens’ center Alex Galchenyuk—a player regularly expected to break out, but who hasn’t quite taken that next step yet.

Hayes and Galchenyuk both signed bridge contracts for two years; Hayes for $2.6 million AAV, Galchenyuk for $2.8 million. Galchenyuk’s points totals were slightly better than Hayes’, as he scored 30 goals and 56 points in the 2015-16 season.

Galchenyuk then signed a longer-term deal: three years, $4.9 million AAV. Hayes may get even more term than that, if the Rangers decide he’s part of their future plans, and his contract should come in around $4.5 million AAV.

What should happen with Hayes

The New York Rangers would be smart to keep Hayes around. While he may not develop into the 60-point, top-line center that many wanted, he showed an ability to provide two-way impact against top competition this season.

The Rangers could certainly get value for Hayes in a trade, but they could also do so with Ryan Spooner or Vlad Namestnikov—neither of whom have shown the ability to play tough minutes and produce like Hayes.

A smart contract would be a 4- or 5-year offer at $5 million per. That’s comparable to Mika Zibanejad, with a lower AAV attached.

However, it’s impossible to tell at this point whether Hayes will be back. The Rangers have so much flexibility in their rebuild that, if the right offer comes along, they could easily trade Hayes as part of a package to move up in the draft (or acquire a top-tier defenseman).

Teams to watch out for

Since Hayes is a Restricted Free Agent, the Rangers really don’t have to worry about anyone poaching him after July 1. The possibility of an offer sheet exists, but those are essentially nonexistent in the NHL these days.

Instead, the possibility of Hayes leaving New York is almost entirely dependent upon a trade.

Carolina Hurricanes: The Hurricanes, now under new ownership and with a new coach, have made it clear they’re open for business. Per Bob McKenzie of TSN, the only untouchable player on the roster is forward Sebastian Aho.

That means top defensemen Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Justin Faulk are available. Slavin and Pesce in particular would be juicy targets for the Rangers, as their excellent performances and young ages fit right in with a Rangers rebuild.

Whether the Rangers are willing to pony up for a premiere trade offer remains to be seen, though.

Next: What the Rangers should look for in their next head coach

Calgary Flames: Like Carolina, Calgary has a glut of talented young defensemen and are in a possible transition phase after missing the playoffs. Dougie Hamiltion’s name has cropped up in trade rumors again and again this spring, and the Rangers would love to get a 24-year-old, right-shot defenseman like him.

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