The New York Rangers are at a crossroads as a franchise. With little known about the team’s future, could a Leon Draisaitl trade speed up the rebuild?
When it comes to roster overhauls, the Rangers have tried their best. Thus far, Jeff Gorton has followed all of the logical steps for a rebuild. The general manager has swapped expiring assets for draft picks and freed up considerable amounts of cap space. During the buildup to the NHL draft following the conclusion to the Stanley Cup Finals, teams work the phones.
According to Larry Brooks of the New York Post, the Rangers and Edmonton Oilers have at least touched base. Now, whether or not this was a case of general managers simply returning phone calls or being serious is up for interpretation. But, in the broader context of the NHL, the Rangers and Oilers make sense as trade partners.
Both organizations missed out on the postseason this past year after being expected to be contenders. The drop off up in Edmonton was as much self inflicted as anything. Even with the superhuman Conor McDavid playing like a human highlight real, the team finished with the ninth worst record in the league.
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Of course, the injury bug and Alain Vigneault tag teamed to result in the Rangers finishing with the eighth worst record in the league. Now, flush with cap space, a surplus of centers and draft capital, the team can choose its own path.
Leon rides shotgun
Simply put, in terms of raw talent, Draisaitl still has plenty of room to grow. The fact that the German is still developing as a player is a testament to just how talented he is. In a career 269 games, Draisaitl has posted 207 points including 75 goals. Although the forward has posted consecutive seasons of at least 25 goals, it is as a playmaker that he shines.
Draisaitl posted a 1.86 primary assists per 60 minutes of ice time during the 2017-2018 season. That figure was good enough for 14th amongst players that had at least 1000 minutes of ice time last year. To put that in context, consider that the Oilers as a team only had six other players post more than ten goals.
In addition to preforming at a high level, Draisaitl did so with a less than stellar supporting cast. When the German was not riding shotgun with Connor McDavid or Ryan Nugent Hopkins, his most common line mates were the corpse of Milan Lucic and Patrick Maroon. Lucic and Maroon combined for 64 points this past season, six less than Draisaitl by himself.
The point being that the German had little to no help and still posted an outstanding statistical season. In addition to great conventional stats, Draisaitl also posted strong possession stats. The forward posted a 53.3 Corsi For Percentage on a slightly above average (50.62 CF%) possession team. That figure means that when Draisaitl was on the ice, the Oilers created 53.3% of shots during the game. Logically, this means that since the Oilers were shooting more than the other team, they would probably score more goals.
The cap giveth and the cap taketh away
Ever since the NHL instituted the salary cap following the 2004 lockout, the league has taken a new shape. Instead of loading up on expensive veteran talent at will, organizations have to pick and choose their spots. With limited resources going around, every single dollar against the cap counts. As of the moment, the Oilers have $8.6 million in cap space.
However, the Oilers are currently in the market for two top six wingers and at least one top four defenseman. With five restricted free agents all due for slight pay bumps, the team will need to create cap space to ice a competitive team next year. The albatross that is the Lucic contract still has an unsightly five years and $30 million to be paid out.
The idea of the salary cap was to balance things out between big market franchises like the Rangers and Oilers with the small market clubs like Carolina or Columbus. However, the salary rules have created a hierarchy in which the smaller franchises farm out their talent when it becomes too expensive. In Edmonton’s case, they bought high on an aging veteran and overpaid on the first day of free agency.
The framework
What exactly would it take to get Draisaitl centering Chris Kreider and Filip Chytil this October? The conversation probably begins with the Rangers agreeing to bury Milan Lucic’s contract to start. The Rangers could then either keep Lucic around to fill out a roster spot, bury him in the minors or buy him out.
From their, it would likely cost the Rangers a high end roster player as well as one if not both of the team’s back end of the first round draft picks. A package of Kevin Hayes, #27 and #29 would probably get this deal over the finish line. This would give the Rangers a high end offensive center that could slide in front of Mika Zibanejad.
As for the Oilers, it would free up nearly $15 million in cap space, and give them a cheaper player that can serve as a Draisaitl facsimile. The cost would probably prove to be too great for New York to make this move. However, if the team wanted to add a marquee player for a restricted free agent and a pair of low end first round picks, the market is there.
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Of course, Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli is known for shocking moves. Maybe a Draisaitl and Lucic for a roster player could get the deal across the finish line. Being that Brooks reported that “the Rangers would consider taking on Lucic’s contract for Draisaitl,” it is safe to say that the Rangers will not overpay.