New York Rangers: How an Artemi Panarin trade would work

The New York Rangers are a rebuilding team in the market for elite talent. Artemi Panarin of the Columbus Blue Jackets is reportedly on the market.

The New York Rangers do not have a roster set in stone. Outside of goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, pretty much everyone else is expendable. Through an active trade deadline window, general manager Jeff Gorton has landed himself a bevy of assets. In addition to holding considerable draft capital, the team also has roster players that could feature in trades.

With most of the league in the midst of a staring contest, it is the time for big decisions. On Tuesday morning, the Ottawa Senators traded forward Mike Hoffman to the Sharks, who promptly dealt him to the Florida Panthers. The point being, every team is open for business and for the right price, pretty much anything can happen.

For organizations like the Columbus Blue Jackets that the attractiveness of other markets, this time is especially stressful. According to Elliot Friedman of Sportsnet Canada, forward Artemi Panarin is not willing to negotiate an extension at this time. This in turn prompted the Blue Jackets to listen to offers for the Russian winger.

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The Rangers are a team lacking a superstar forward. If New York could swing a deal for Panarin, he would immediately slide into the top six and make an impact.

The track record

To say that Panarin flourished in his first season with the Blue Jackets would be an understatement. In his first season away from Patrick Kane, the forward managed to set a career high in points with 82. The lingering thought that Panarin was a product of riding shotgun with an elite talent in Kane were promptly put to bed.

In addition to producing at a higher level than ever before, there were moments were it was clear that Panarin was figuring out just how good he is. During the Blue Jackets first round series with the Washington Capitals, Panarin hung in there up against Alex Ovechkin for draw dropping plays. Panarin’s overtime game winner in game one was an elite player’s goal.

In addition to using his speed to get to the open part of the ice, Panarin uses his lethal wrist shot from an impossible angle to beat the goaltender.  On top of being an elite playmaker, the Russian is also a strong possession forward. This past season with Columbus, Panarin posted a 57.0 Corsi For Percentage. This means that when Panarin was on the ice, the Blue Jackets had an insane 57% of the shots in the game. That figure would be the best on the Rangers by more than five percent.

The conundrum

However, the entire reason that the Russian is out on the market is his stance on an extension. Being that Panarin does not want to negotiate an extension right now means one of two things. First, he wants to get to unrestricted free agency next summer when the market will be absolutely insane. The headliners in next summer’s class include Tyler Seguin, Drew Doughty, Jeff Skinner, Erik Karlsson, Ryan McDonagh, Logan Courture, Matt Duchene, Joe Pavelski and Blake Wheeler.

In the feeding frenzy that is the first day of the NHL free agency window, each player could be setting a new benchmark in price. Should Seguin reach free agency, he could easily push the $10 million per season bench mark. That bodes well for the longterm potential earnings of Artemi Panarin.

Secondly, it could simply mean that Panarin wants out of the small market in Columbus even though they are assembling a solid team. The former Calder trophy winner might feel that he did not leave the bright lights of the KHL to play in suburban Ohio. There is not a place more of a polar opposite to Columbus than New York City. If Panarin wants a big stage, there is none brighter than Madison Square Garden.

The contract extension

Now, before even getting to what a potential trade framework would look like, Panarin would have to agree to a sign and trade. Typically, in determining fair market value, recent contracts for similar players serve as the benchmark. The extension that Evander Kane signed with the San Jose Sharks this spring (seven years, $7 million per) makes the starting point high.

Simply put, Kane was not worth that figure and arguably never will be. However, the Sharks were impressed enough with his post deadline performance to make the offer. So, right from the jump, Panarin is looking at seven years and at least $7.5 million per season. Being that the Russian is only 26 years old, this would be the ideal time to sign such an extension from a team’s perspective.

Yet, for the player, a short term deal may be preferable. If Panarin were to sign a four year deal at a higher average annual value, he could potentially get one more big contract. This is where the player’s intentions come into play. Depending on what Panarin values more, he could achieve either a long term commitment or the potential for higher earning. A short term extension would allow him to play into a higher annual salary. In contrast, a long term deal could let him have financial security over the next seven years.

So roughly, we’ll estimate a Panarin extension at seven years, $8 million per season.

The framework

Assuming that Panarin is willing to agree to an extension with the Rangers, the teams would then proceed. Being that the Blue Jackets as they currently sit are a fringe playoff team built through their defense, they would likely want roster players. The starting point would likely need to be either Kevin Hayes or Pavel Buchnevich. Assuming that Columbus wants to refill its top six hole, the likelier of the two would be Buchnevich.

In addition to Buchnevich, the Rangers would likely also need to part with one of Jimmy Vesey, Ryan Spooner or Vladislav Namestnikov. Depending on what the Blue Jackets value, either toughness (Vesey) or bottom six skill (Spooner/Namestnikov) would sort that out.

In addition to the top six and bottom six forward, the Rangers would likely need to throw in one of the back end of the first round selections or a second round choice. A package of Buchnevich, Spooner and pick number 27 could conceivably work for both teams. Columbus gets a 40 to 50 point forward in Buchnevich and an above average bottom six forward. Those two combined would match Panarin’s production and they’d get a first round pick as well.

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The Rangers have truly been starved of an elite, game breaking talent since Jaromir Jagr left for the KHL. In Panarin, the Rangers would have their dynamic superstar locked up for the long term.