The New York Rangers have lacked an elite player since Jaromir Jagr left for the KHL in 2008. Should the team wish to break the bank, forward John Tavares is going to potentially be a free agent.
Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews have all won the Stanley Cup this decade. Simply put, to win the Cup, a franchise must feature at least one elite talent. In the case of each and every one of these players, they will likely be hall of fame candidates if not members. For the better part of this decade, the Rangers have had one in between the pipes and that’s it.
For all of their respective talents, Marian Gaborik and Rick Nash do not hold a candle to the aforementioned cup winners. In addition to failing to win a Stanley Cup, they simply do not have the same level of talent. At one point in his career, Nash was a true game breaker. However, by the time he was traded to New York, his style had shifted. Instead of a sniper, Nash was a shutdown 200 foot forward.
Although the Rangers are technically supposed to be in a rebuild, they control their own fate. Should the team wish to speed up the process, the market is developing in a way they could land one or two elite talents. With nearly $30 million in cap space, considerable draft capital and a handful of talented roster players, the team is open for business. In fact, the Rangers are expected to be as active during the draft as they were at the trade deadline.
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The Rangers would be crazy to not at least inquire on Tavares’ interest on joining the organization. Although it never really got off the ground, the team pitched Steven Stamkos on the first day of free agency before he agree to extend with Tampa Bay.
The track record
It is no exaggeration to say that Tavares is one of the 15 best players in the entire league. The former London Knight has a track record of elite performance regardless of line mates. This past season on an outright dreadful Islander team, Tavares posted 84 points including 37 goals. Both of those figures would be the highest total for a Ranger since Gaborik back in the 2011-2012 season.
In addition to his outstanding offensive production, Tavares has found a way to drive possession on a team that simply does not. As a whole, the Islanders posted a 47.47 Corsi For Percentage. Meaning that the Islanders as a team had 47.47% of the shots during a game. An average team’s CF% is supposed to be 50%, meaning they generated at least half of the shots. Somehow, Tavares has hovered around that 50% figure for the majority of his career.
The impressive thing about Tavares’ game is his ability to make his teammates better. This past season, the center drove his line mates, Anders Lee and Josh Bailey to career years. However, dysfunction in the Islander’s organization has marred Tavares’ tenure. The team has mustered up a pair of playoff appearances and a single series win in his eight year career.
The chances
The Islanders lucked themselves into Lou Lamoriello being available to take over hockey operations. This hiring has thrown a monkey wrench into the forward’s path to free agency. The conventional wisdom prior to Lamoriello’s hiring was that Tavares would at least get to July 1 to see the offers. On the open market, it would not be a stretch for the forward to land himself at least $11 million per season if not more.
The catch being that only the Islanders would be able to offer Tavares a seventh year on this contract. Now, with Lamoriello in the fold, there is a serious chance that the five time all star does not make it to free agency. Lamoriello is a sage operator that has been around the block in the NHL. It is doubtful that the Islander’s president of hockey operations would let Tavares reach free agency without a lengthy negotiating process.
On top of simply making it to free agency, there is also the Rangers factor. If Tavares even makes it to free agency, the Rangers would need to convince him that the team was the right fit for him. It is no secret that Tavares has loved his time with the Islanders despite all of the disfunction. A significant part of that is the rivalry with the Rangers. In 43 games against the Rangers, Tavares has posted 38 points and presided over a lengthy winning streak. The Islanders 11-1-0 record against the Rangers since the beginning of the 2016-2017 season is a true eye sore.
The offer
Let’s say that Tavares is willing to even meet with the Rangers to hear an offer. The starting point is obviously the six year mark at at least $11.5 million per season. In all seriousness, if it were to devolve to a bidding war, which is totally possible, it could be the richest contract in the entire NHL. Tavares is that good of a player with that much of his prime left.
This will Be the first time that Tavares has had the right to even listen to other team’s offers. With the way the NHL’s current salary and contract rules work, a player has to turn 27 or have seven years of service. At age 27, Tavares is on the cusp of reaching his prime at the same time he will get the largest pay day of his life. There is a realistic chance that Tavares could tie or break the benchmark set by Connor McDavid’s 10 year $100 million dollar contract.
The Rangers have all of the assets that the Islanders do if not more. The sell for the Rangers as an organization would be simple. If Tavares signs with the Rangers, he can stay in his current home and play for one of the league’s signature franchises. Instead of playing 41 games a season in a converted basketball arena, he’d be wearing the diagonal Rangers across his chest in the world’s most famous arena.
The fit
Now, being that the Rangers currently have at least seven centers in the pipeline, the team would have to do some shuffling. In all likelihood, regardless of signing Tavares or not, the team will look to offload both Ryan Spooner and Vladislav Namestnikov. In addition to those restricted free agents, the Rangers also have Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, Kevin Hayes, Mika Zibanejad and Brett Howden. The obvious solution would be using either Hayes or Zibanejad to secure a number one defenseman.
In turn, the Rangers could roll out a top six of Tavares, Buchnevich, Kreider, Zibanejad, Zuccarello and Chytil. That top six would have the ability to hang with most of the other’s around the entire league. Throw in a number one defenseman from a subsequent trade and suddenly, the Rangers would not need to rebuild. They’d be right back where they were two seasons ago. A piece or two away from winning the Stanley Cup.
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It is probably a pipe dream to imagine Tavares in Ranger blue. However, the team would be negligent in its duties as a hockey team to not at least ask. The organization has a lot to offer and is in dire need of an elite forward to reinforce the aging Henrik Lundqvist. In Tavares, the Rangers would speed up the rebuild into a matter of weeks instead of years.